-Caveat Lector- >From RollCall http://www.rollcall.com/commentary/kondracke.html Pennsylvania Avenue ------------------------------------------------------------------------ If Bush Falters, McCain May Be GOP Nominee By Morton M. Kondracke Even though he wasn't on the program, last weekend's Conservative Political Action Conference demonstrated why Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) could end up as the 2000 Republican presidential nominee. The story of the convention was the fire directed at the GOP frontrunner, Texas Gov. George W. Bush, a taste of things to come as the campaign heats up. Without mentioning the Texan by name, billionaire Steve Forbes attacked Bush's slogan of "compassionate conservatism," declaring that "mealy mouthed rhetoric and poll-tested clich�s are no substitute for a muscular, substantive agenda." Former Tennessee Gov. Lamar Alexander (R) assailed Bush directly, claiming that "compassionate conservatism" amounted to "weasel words" akin to the "kinder, gentler" conservatism of Bush's father, who lost the presidency. The early attacks by Forbes and Alexander -- and former Veep Dan Quayle, too -- indicate that a prodigious amount of energy and money will be spent trying to tear down Bush as he tries to formulate a national campaign message. McCain has declared he won't join in the Bush-whacking, but his advisers acknowledge that McCain's main chance to get nominated lies with Bush's either stumbling on his own or getting clobbered by his foes. Obviously, McCain backers think -- and rightly so -- that their man has a lot of positives going for him, too: his wartime heroism, expertise in foreign policy, a reputation for independence, the adoration of the media and the fundraising potential that comes from being chairman of the Senate Commerce Committee. McCain's 1999 agenda includes items that will please economic conservatives and also Ross Perot supporters: elimination of inheritance and capital gains taxes, fostering competition in telecommunications, budget reform and another shot at campaign finance reform. Instead of pushing for a comprehensive campaign reform package that arch-conservatives regard as an infringement on the First Amendment, McCain may go at the problem piecemeal, starting with a ban on soft money plus an increase in individual hard-money limits. This just might pass -- and win favor with corporate executives tired of being repeatedly dunned for six-figure donations. Arizona is not a financial base comparable to Texas, but it is next door to California, where McCain has sealed ties in Silicon Valley and, to some degree, Hollywood. Charlton Heston narrated McCain's Senate campaign ads last year. McCain's campaign team is another strength. His senior advisers include former Reagan White House chief of staff Ken Duberstein, former Rep. Vin Weber (R-Minn.) and former New Hampshire Sen. Warren Rudman (R). His top consultant is Greg Stevens, who went six-for-six in statewide races in 1998. His pollster is Bill McInturff and the campaign just signed former Reagan aide Rick Davis as day-to-day manager, depriving Elizabeth Dole of a hoped-for top operative. McCain's lead fundraiser, Carla Eudy, filled a huge treasure chest for Sen. Phil Gramm (R-Texas) in 1996 and did the same for the National Republican Senatorial Committee before that. It's true, right now McCain scores in single or low double digits in most national polls. The latest Time/CNN poll showed him running fifth among GOP voters with just 4 percent support behind Bush, who had at 42 percent; Dole with 21 percent; Quayle, 11 percent; and Forbes with 5 percent. Polls less dependent on instant name identification, however, indicate that McCain has hidden potential. A Zogby survey in December identified five candidates by biography, or "story," without names. A just-re-elected major state governor from a Republican family with a record of lowering taxes and improving schools (obviously, Bush) finished first among Republicans with 42 percent, but a war-hero Senator with a reputation for independence finished second with 22 percent. Zogby's survey included no woman married to a former GOP nominee, but the war hero finished well ahead of the flat-tax publisher and two former governors in the survey. McCain backers say that a McInturff survey in four states with early Republican contests -- California, Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina -- produced similar results, with McCain coming in second even when his "negatives" were taken into account. Among party regulars, McCain is considered an apostate for favoring a $1.10-per-pack tobacco tax and campaign finance reform legislation last year, but those demonstrations of independence could serve him well next year, especially if he reconfirms his otherwise-conservative record. Still, as Weber puts it: "If Bush doesn't fade for some reason, it's hard for him not to be the nominee. But he faces big 'ifs.' Being front-runner means he's got to win everywhere. The Alaska and Louisiana caucuses, preceding Iowa, are likely to be dominated by religious conservatives and Iowa will be no pushover." McInturff has another formulation -- the notion that there are four dominant "slots" in GOP nomination races. Bush figures to fill the "party candidate" slot as the choice of the GOP establishment. Forbes fills the "outsider" slot. Two others, the religious conservative slot and the right-to-life slot, are up for grabs among Quayle, Dole and Gary Bauer. Winning the nomination, McInturff thinks, requires control of one slot and being acceptable to the other dominant groups in the party. McCain is acceptable to all, but controls none. For him to win probably requires, as one strategist put it, "mega-money Forbes going after mega-money Bush and the two demolishing each other." Based on CPAC, the process may be underway. ~~~~~~~~~~~~ A<>E<>R The only real voyage of discovery consists not in seeking new landscapes but in having new eyes. -Marcel Proust + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + Forwarded as information only; no endorsement to be presumed + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. section 107, this material is distributed without charge or profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving this type of information for non-profit research and educational purposes only. 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