-Caveat Lector-

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Impeachment Watch

Sealed Criminal Indictments Against Both Clintons

To emerge when Clinton can't grant pardons

CRIMINAL indictments that could put Bill and Hillary Clinton in jail
have been filed by a grand jury, according to a report in Washington
yesterday.
The charges have not yet been formalised by Kenneth Starr, the
independent counsel, but Whitewater grand jurors reportedly have decided
that there is enough evidence to go ahead. The indictments are under
seal and would not be disclosed until after Mr Clinton leaves office,
either as scheduled in January 2001, or earlier if he is removed after a
Senate trial.

It means that while Mr Clinton's aides used television interviews
yesterday to argue against impeachment, Mr Starr has caught the
President in a pincer movement. If he admits lying under oath, coaching
witnesses to lie in his defence, and obstructing justice, Republicans
might decide that this belated candour is sufficient to forestall
impeachment in the historic vote scheduled for Thursday or Friday.

However, it would hand prosecutors conclusive evidence against Mr
Clinton allowing Mr Starr to pursue him once his second presidential
term is over, as prescribed by the constitution. The chance of
prosecution is not remote, as had been thought, but a real and present
danger. It explains why Mr Clinton still, in most people's view, refuses
to tell the obvious truth despite the advice of political aides to
"confess and avoid" by making a clean breast of his offences.

White House aides told the Washington Times yesterday that sealed
indictments were filed recently, and this explains the comment of
Gregory Craig, special counsel to the President, who told impeachment
hearings last week that criminal prosecution was "very likely".

Lawyers familiar with the Office of the Independent Counsel say Mr Starr
has not shut down his investigations, even though he sent his
impeachment evidence to Congress months ago. His spokesman says it could
take "a minimum of one-and-a-half to two years" to end the Whitewater
investigation, which has already secured 15 convictions of Mr Clinton's
associates.

The investigation has expanded beyond its original remit, which was to
look into the Clintons' financial dealings in Arkansas, and now includes
inquiries into their role in the White House's illegal accumulation of
900 FBI files on Republicans - apparently for an enemies list - and the
sacking of White House travel office staff and their replacement with
friends.

Mr Starr decided that there was insufficient evidence to impeach Mr
Clinton over the files and travel office, but the investigations are
apparently not "dry holes" as the Democrats say. Mrs Clinton is
suspected of being the main force behind both.

Already the independent counsel has drafted an indictment of the First
Lady for lying about her legal work on a land deal called Castle Grande,
which was used to siphon money out of a government-backed thrift,
comparable to a building society.

The London Telegraph, Dec. 15, 1998


Single Currency

Swiss Watch Euro from the Sidelines

Hope to profit whether Euro strong or weak

BERN - For generations, the Swiss have been raised on a diet of
difference.
They were taught that Switzerland is an island of neutrality in a
continent of strife, a fortress of orderly prosperity in a Europe beset
by high taxes, high unemployment and high interest rates. Being out of
step with their neighbors was a national virtue and Switzerland's
postwar status as one of the richest, most stable countries in the world
was proof of it.

True to that comforting heritage, and thanks to national plebiscites
that decide all important policy changes, Switzerland has repeatedly
declined over the years to take part in the march of European unity,
just as it has said no to membership in NATO and the United Nations.

So come January, when the countries surrounding Switzerland will shed
their national currencies and adopt a common currency, the new euro, the
7 million Swiss will keep their precious franc rather than risk its
dilution and with it their independence.

Georg Moser, who operates a leather-goods stall in an outdoor market
here in the capital, recited a litany of reasons why Switzerland is
better off on its own than as part of a pan-European morass.

''We've got our troubles, but it's not so bad here,'' Mr. Moser said,
stamping his feet against the chill evening. ''Look at the Portuguese
and the Spanish - they don't have the same values as we do. I don't
trust the Germans. The French can be troublesome, you know. And how can
we control what's going on in Brussels?'' But he also surmised that the
Swiss exception is in its twilight: ''I don't know if we can go on like
this much longer,'' he said.

''Being Swiss doesn't mean what it used to mean. My kids don't know what
it means. They shock me sometimes. They think of themselves as
Europeans.''

Mr. Moser's pride of place and his misgivings are widely shared in
Switzerland. The Swiss may be taking a wait-and-see attitude toward the
euro, but there is a dawning sense of inevitability that their future
may have to lie in a web of closer attachments to their neighbors.

The price of their solitude, which served them so well during World War
II and then the Cold War, has lately been steep. It was driven home like
a dagger with the serial revelations of Swiss banks' profiting from the
accounts of Jews who lost their lives in German gas chambers.

The myth of wartime Swiss neutrality was exposed as just that, but the
scandal was not just a history lesson. It opened Swiss eyes to their
contemporary isolation. By joining the pile-on over Nazi gold, many
Swiss say, their European neighbors abandoned them. ''The Swiss learned
what it means to be on their own,'' said Walter Kaelin, a law professor
at the University of Bern.

Little in recent years has unified this trilingual, highly decentralized
country as thoroughly as the world's condemnation of its actions during
the war.

In Vienna on Friday, the Swiss completed four-year negotiations on a
bilateral trade deal with the European Union that might have been
unnecessary had Swiss voters not rejected an offer of membership in the
European Economic Area - a single-market zone linking the EU with the
rest of Western Europe - in 1992.

''They're no longer equal partners with their neighbors,'' said Pierre
Hazan, author of the unsparing new book ''Le Mal Suisse'' (roughly,
''The Swiss Problem''), in an interview. ''What can the Swiss offer'' at
the negotiating table? Not much, any more.

''The future of Switzerland is being decided outside this country,'' he
said.

The coming of the euro next month as the official currency of 11
countries is being observed in Switzerland with apparent confidence, at
least in the short term.

If the euro is strong and stable, Swiss businesses expect to benefit
from the resulting economic health of Europe. Sixty percent of Swiss
exports go to Europe and 80 percent of its imports come from Europe.
Because Swiss banks have always been a haven for foreign assets, dealing
with 10 fewer currencies may not be a difficult transition.

A more ominous scenario would be a euro that founders, possibly because
the shakier economies and more indebted governments of Europe cannot
sustain it.

If the euro becomes weaker, analysts and officials here say, that would
drive currency traders to the Swiss franc - not a bad thing for Swiss
banks - but exports would become prohibitively expensive to the
country's major customers. Swiss industry and work force would suffer. A
devaluation of the Swiss franc might ensue.

On the horizon in the first decade of the 21st century are a succession
of new referendums that could force the issue of Swiss integration into
Europe. Swiss leaders have favored it for years. Despite setbacks in
referendums, the government continues to tout the idea in glossy
pamphlets so enthusiastic they might have been produced by the European
Union.

The best-known critic of just about every entangling alliance is
Christoph Blocher, a nationalist businessman who runs a chemical empire
with factories from Taiwan to South Carolina.

''If we join Europe, our interest rates will rise 2 percent, and that
would raise housing costs by 30 percent,'' he said in an interview.

EU membership would instantly make Switzerland one of its wealthiest
members, imposing a significant burden of as much as 4 billion Swiss
francs ($3 billion) a year in payments to the EU for redistribution to
have-not members.

That, Mr. Blocher said, would raise Swiss taxes - low by European
standards - by 15 percent. He predicted that the unemployment rate, at
3.6 percent the second-lowest in Europe, would rise, as would
Switzerland's rock-bottom interest rates.

''It's important that a small country like Switzerland can determine its
own fate rather than let a huge bureaucracy do it,'' Mr. Blocher said.

Yet he said that he might eventually change his mind - if the euro works
and the European system becomes much more decentralized.

If Switzerland's most ardent European rejectionist is willing to leave
the door ajar, then the Swiss may be closer to walking through it than
they realize.

International Herald Tribune, Dec. 15, 1998


Deflation in the UK

Manufacturer's Prices in Sharpest Fall in 40 Years

Global Deflation Continues


Manufacturers' prices have seen their sharpest falls for at least 40
years because of competitive pressures and falling raw material prices.


The price of finished goods - excluding volatile products such as food,
drink, tobacco and petroleum - fell 0.5 per cent in the year to
November, the biggest fall since records began in 1958, according to
figures released yesterday.


Economists said faltering domestic demand was forcing retailers as well
as manufacturers to run down stocks of unsold goods, a trend that was
likely to continue, leading to further price falls.


A sustained period of deflation in manufacturing could severely erode
producers' margins. Until now, weak commodity prices and the effects of
a strong pound on the value of imported raw materials, while
contributing to a fall in output prices, have also provided some relief
for UK manufacturers by pushing production costs lower.


The Office for National Statistics said the price of all goods -
including volatile items - leaving the factory gate for the domestic
market rose 0.1 per cent in November compared with 12 months earlier,
the same rate of annual growth as in October and the lowest since 1960.


Prices for office machinery, computers, TVs and radios have been falling
steeply, reflecting increased competition from east Asian exporters.


But textiles, leather and wood-based products, feeding markets for
clothing, shoes and household furniture, have also declined sharply.


John Redwood, shadow trade and industry secretary, said the figures were
a warning that the problems in manufacturing were likely to intensify.


"It shows that the squeeze on manufacturing is getting worse. We all
know that wages are still going up and that the pound continues to put
pressure on exporters, so those companies that are managing to stay in
business will see their margins eroded further."


The Treasury countered that falling raw material costs were "a
significant part of the overall picture". Stripping out the more
volatile components, input prices fell 4.6 per cent in the year to
November.


The Engineering Employers' Federation said confirmation of weak
inflationary pressures may see the Bank of England's monetary policy
committee cut interest rates further.


"Confidence has been eroded to the point where capital spending has been
reined back," said Alan Armitage, chief economist at the EEF. "Companies
are pulling their horns in for tough times."


The federation's survey of wage inflation in the engineering sector,
published today, will show that increases in pay settlements have begun
to slow. Strong wage inflation has been cited as a reason against
monetary easing.


Michael Hume, economist at Lehman Brothers, said lower factory goods
prices would help drive inflationary pressures out of the economy.
Official data today are expected to show underlying inflation hitting
the government's targeted annual growth rate of 2.5 per cent for the
fourth month in succession.

The Financial Times, Dec. 15, 1998
-----
Aloha, He'Ping,
Om, Shalom, Salaam.
Em Hotep, Peace Be,
Omnia Bona Bonis,
All My Relations.
Adieu, Adios, Aloha.
Amen.
Roads End
Kris

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