<< Watch out for those countries that have less and less to lose ... A<>E<>R >> >From Int'l Herald Tribune Paris, Friday, March 26, 1999 Russia's Grand Reform Hopes Wilt ------------------------------------------------------------------------ By David Hoffman Washington Post Service ------------------------------------------------------------------------ MOSCOW - Two years ago, when Russia reluctantly signed an agreement with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, there were signs that the Titan of Eurasia was being welcomed into the West. Russia floated Eurobonds, its tycoons jetted to London and New York in search of capital and, at the Denver summit talks that summer, President Boris Yeltsin was toasted by the exclusive club of the wealthy nations. But when Prime Minister Yevgeni Primakov aborted his visit to Washington and turned his plane around in midair this week, it was a sign of how difficult Russia's road to integration with the West had become. The Balkans crisis, and Russia's economic woes, have thrown into sharp relief how the earlier hopes have been dashed. Now, Russia is practically begging to get back into the International Monetary Fund lending program. It is all but closed off from borrowing new capital on global markets, and many analysts think it will default on some of its existing external debts. The tycoons have been shipwrecked by the ruble and debt crisis of August. The Balkans attack has led Russia to freeze its already-weak connections with the Atlantic alliance. And Mr. Yeltsin's direct, personal protests against the Yugoslavia offensive were all but ignored. Russia does not appear to be marching deliberately toward a new isolation from the West, according to many analysts and politicians here. Rather, it appears to be sliding down a slope, flailing about, out of weakness, humiliation and anger. Grigori Yavlinsky, the economist and leader of the centrist Yabloko bloc in Parliament, compared the midair maneuver by Mr. Primakov to the exploits of a famous Soviet pilot, Valeri Chkalov, who was known for his daring stunts, but who eventually pushed the envelope too far and died in a crash. For Russia, the question being asked by many politicians and analysts today is how to avoid Chkalov's fate. The attack on Yugoslavia has reignited an all-important argument about whether Russia is heading for renewed isolation from the global community, and whether it can afford it. Both Mr. Yeltsin and Mr. Primakov are being buffeted by conflicting demands and needs. They have taken a rhetorical leap away from the West in their reaction to the bombing of Yugoslavia, but they have been desperately clinging to the hope that they can revive badly-needed Western financial a id. In his appearances on Thursday, Mr. Primakov denounced the NATO attack as an ''enormous threat to stability'' but then insisted that in two days he would be back at the table with the IMF managing- director, Michel Camdessus, with whom he was supposed to meet in Washington. Mr. Primakov said, ''We are reckoning on fruitful talks with the IMF'' and took pains to emphasize that Russia ''remains an organic part of the world community and there is no isolationism.'' But the ever-cautious Mr. Primakov also betrayed some uncertainty about whether Russia will get fresh loans to cover the $4.5 billion coming due to the IMF this year. He told cabinet ministers Thursday that ''inner resources must be mobilized now, to the maximum mobilized and used.'' Mr. Primakov's remarks came as Russians also saw their favorite street barometer of the economy take another dive: The ruble exchange rate weakened dramatically against the dollar and again hit new lows for the year. On the NATO attack, Mr. Yeltsin's words were strong, too, saying it was a ''gross error by the Americans, American diplomacy and Clinton, a gross error.'' But Mr. Yeltsin's actions spoke volumes about Russia's weaknesses. He quickly and firmly rejected the idea that Russia could take any military response to the Balkans attack, as had been suggested by some nationalists and Communists. ''There are so-called extreme measures,'' he said. ''However, we decided not to use extreme measures. We decided to be above this. In other words, in the moral sense, we are above America.'' Igor Bunin, a political analyst, said that Russian public opinion was also rent by conflicting attitudes toward the West that have come out in recent days. ''If you follow our polls,'' he said, ''you will notice that the love for the West which occurred spontaneously at the end of the 1980s, the beginning of the 1990s, is waning. The honeymoon lasted until 1994-95, and then anti-Western, anti-American sentiments appeared. There was a crisis of identity.'' The economic crisis last August demonstrated that ''Russia would not be able to survive going its own special way,'' he added, ''and Russians felt they desperately needed Western money.'' ''After the United States inflicted this strike on Yugoslavia, many people felt this urge to tweak Americans on the nose,'' he said, ''to show them that they are not the only hegemony in the world.'' Mr. Bunin said Mr. Primakov was a pragmatist trying to balance the conflicting desires. ''On one hand he is trying to raise people's national pride and dignity when he turns around his plane. On the other hand, he is not severing ties with the West.'' The strike on Yugoslavia, unleashing emotional blasts from the nationalists and Communists who dominate the lower house of Parliament may once again put off another key piece of unfinished business between Russia and the West, the START-2 strategic arms treaty. Signed in 1993 but still unratified by the State Duma, the lower house of Parliament, there were signs in recent weeks that it could soon be approved. Mr. Yeltsin sent a compromise version to the Duma, and debate was set for April 2. ~~~~~~~~~~~~ A<>E<>R The only real voyage of discovery consists not in seeking new landscapes but in having new eyes. -Marcel Proust + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + Every great advance in natural knowledge has involved the absolute rejection of authority. -Thomas Huxley + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + Forwarded as information only; no endorsement to be presumed + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. section 107, this material is distributed without charge or profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving this type of information for non-profit research and educational purposes only.
