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Kosovo/Vietnam
U.S. Prepares Public for Wider War
The war propaganda machine is in full swing
WASHINGTON - President Bill Clinton said Sunday that ''continued
brutality and repression'' by Serbian forces in Kosovo underscored the
need for NATO to persevere in its air assault on Yugoslavia, and offered
his strong support to the alliance decision to broaden the military
operation.
In brief comments from the White House lawn, Mr. Clinton said that he
had been in contact over the weekend with the leaders of Britain,
France, Germany and Italy, and that ''all of them share our
determination to respond strongly to Mr. Milosevic's continued campaign
of inhumane violence against the Kosovar Albanian people.''
Mr. Clinton praised the bravery of the F-117A Stealth fighter pilot who
was downed Saturday and of the soldiers who rescued him. The Yugoslav
mission ''entails real risk,'' he said.
NATO and American officials have reported evidence of serious and
widespread atrocities by Serbian forces against ethnic Albanians in the
Yugoslav province of Kosovo. The NATO campaign was intended in part to
deter such violence.
As the president turned to walk to a waiting helicopter for a flight to
his retreat in Camp David, Maryland, a reporter asked whether the
bombing campaign might be driving the atrocities. ''Absolutely not!''
Mr. Clinton shouted back.
Other American officials have said that Mr. Milosevic was prepared to
launch a campaign of ''ethnic cleansing'' against Kosovar Albanians
before NATO launched its air strikes last week.
Earlier Sunday, a series of U.S. officials sought to prepare public
opinion for a widening of the conflict. In television appearances, they
continued to insist that there were no plans to send ground troops
unless a peace agreement is reached.
Defense Secretary William Cohen said Sunday that the NATO air campaign
would be widened, despite the loss Saturday of a U.S. F-117A Stealth
fighter.
''It will be intensified,'' Mr. Cohen said on NBC. ''We are going to
move into a wider array of targets including not only those dealing with
command-and-control structures, ammunition dumps, but also start to go
after the forces in the field.''
But U.S. officials insisted that no U.S. ground troops would be
committed to Kosovo without a peace plan..
''We have no intention of doing that,'' said Samuel Berger, President
Clinton's national security adviser, on ABC.
Asked whether the ''no intention'' phrase could mask a plan to introduce
troops later, Secretary of State Madeleine Albright referred to Mr.
Clinton's earlier statement, saying flatly, ''he will not send ground''
troops.
General Henry Shelton, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, said
that to enter Kosovo without a peace settlement ''would involve hundreds
of thousands of ground troops over a rather protracted period of time.''
Several officials acknowledged that bombs and cruise missiles alone
could not stop the small units of soldiers and security forces blamed
for atrocities. But they said NATO's assault could induce Yugoslavia's
president, Slobodan Milosevic, to call a halt. Even ''with 200,000
troops on the ground, you couldn't stop the pistol and the rifle,'' Mr.
Berger said. But ''we can substantially change the calculus of Mr.
Milosevic as to what the cost of this is,'' and ''deter this kind of
action in the future.''
Administration spokesmen, while cautious about ground troops, took care
not to offer Mr. Milosevic any succor by suggesting any other limits to
U.S. determination. Asked whether NATO bombs and missiles might target
Belgrade, Mr. Berger said ''I would not rule out any target.''
As an alternative to a ground deployment, some in Congress have proposed
arming the Kosovar Albanians. Administration spokesmen, however,
resisted that approach.
Now that the NATO operation is under way, several critics of Mr.
Clinton's foreign policy have rallied behind the action. Senator John
McCain, Republican of Arizona, said the United States now had no option
but to prevail.
''We're in it, and we have to win it,' he said on ABC.
Asked about the use of ground troops, Mr. McCain said the United States
must ''exercise every option.''
''We are a superior power and we must win this conflict whatever it
takes,'' he said.
International Herald Tribune, March 29, 1999
Russian Follies
New Yorker Magazine Says Iraq Made $800,000 Payoff to Primakov
Gee, I've only been talking about intelligence agencies spying on
banking transactions for the past 4 years. Think maybe the nay-sayers
will finally shut up and pay attention?
NEW YORK (Reuters) - The New Yorker magazine reported Sunday that
British and U.S. intelligence officials believe Russian Prime Minister
Yevgeny Primakov was paid off by Iraq to obtain strategic materials from
Moscow to build up its nuclear weapons stockpile.
Pulitzer-Prize winning investigative reporter Seymour Hersh quoted
high-level American intelligence sources as saying Primakov received
$800,000 in a wire transfer in November 1997.
The New Yorker said a spokesman at the Russian embassy in Washington
denied all charges of corruption against Primakov.
U.S. National Security Adviser Sandy Berger, asked about the report
during an appearance on ABC's ``This Week,'' said that while he had not
read the whole article and had just seen it, ''I have no evidence to
support that, no. I don't know whether Mr. Hersh has.''
In the report, Hersh quoted one unidentified source as saying, ``A
payment was made.''
``This is rock solid -- like (now-jailed Mafia boss) John Gotti ordering
a whack on the telephone. Ironclad.''
The weekly magazine, which goes on sale Monday, said a British
signals-intelligence unit intercept produced evidence of the transfer.
It quoted a second unidentified U.S. official as saying, ``There was a
wire transfer to an account of $800,000.''
The report said that while it was not clear how Primakov was identified,
the intelligence officials say it was traceable to the Russian Prime
Minister, who is considered a possible successor to President Boris
Yeltsin.
Primakov became friendly with Saddam Hussein when he was posted to the
Middle East by the Soviet Union in the 1960s. The two men reportedly
grew closer after Saddam became president of Iraq in 1979.
In February, the Sunday Telegraph newspaper of London reported that
Russia had signed an arms deal worth $160 million with Saddam Hussein to
reinforce Iraq's air defenses, potentially posing a threat to U.S. and
British planes enforcing no-fly zones over Iraq.
That report said the decision to provide Iraq with military assistance
was approved by Primakov in retaliation for Operation Desert Fox, the
air strikes against Baghdad's military infrastructure by Britain and the
United States last December.
Russia opposed the military attacks, which were designed to punish
Baghdad for not cooperating with United Nations teams appointed to
inspect its weapons facilities following the end of the 1991 Gulf War.
Any deal Moscow made with Iraq would violate the U.N. arms embargo.
``Russia is hopeless now,'' Rolf Ekeus, the first head of the United
Nations Special Commission (UNSCOM) in charge of dismantling Iraq's
weapons of mass destruction, was quoted in the New Yorker as saying.
``It is clear that Russia is making a serious effort to control events.
Saddam will get a bomb, because these materials are floating in. Every
day, they are more advanced.''
The New Yorker article also said that the December bombings of Iraq
included a specific attempt to assassinate Saddam.
It said U.S. Central Intelligence Agency pressure on UNSCOM to allow the
U.S. to use UNSCOM information and presence in Baghdad for spying helped
dismantle the commission, thereby allowing Iraq to receive weapons and
technology from Russia toward building its nuclear weapons stockpile.
Reuters, March 28, 1999
Biological Warfare
Remember: When Going Through an Airport, Keep the Ebola in Your Pocket
Airport Police Grab Vials, Detain Two
A brother and sister were questioned and released last night at
Pittsburgh International Airport after the man placed two sealed vials
labeled anthrax and Ebola on a US Airways ticketing counter at the north
end of the landside building.
Although county officials said they believed it was unlikely the clear
plastic vials contained infectious substances, the vials were placed in
air-tight steel containers and given to the FBI.
FBI Special Agent William J. Crowley said the vials will be analyzed in
a Defense Department laboratory in Maryland. Results are expected within
48 hours.
No one was injured, and no flights were interrupted by the incident,
which began at 5:22 p.m.
The man, 24, of Pittsburgh, and woman, 25, who were not identified, were
detained at the airport for several hours, questioned by the FBI and
county police and then released. Glenn Cannon, county emergency
management coordinator, said the man placed the vials on the counter
while emptying the pockets of the coat he was carrying to find
identification to obtain a ticket from Pittsburgh to Seattle.
The ticketing agent saw the labels on the vials, which resembled test
tubes, and called a supervisor who, in turn, notified security.
When the man realized the agent had read the handwritten labels on the
vials, he grabbed them and put them back in his coat pocket. In doing
so, the coat fell to the floor.
Airport officials immediately established a secure zone around the
ticketing counter, and county officers escorted people out of the area.
"At no time were the vials opened, exposed to air or was there any
dissemination of their contents," Cannon said.
Cannon said the likelihood that the vials contained any infectious agent
"is extremely remote."
He said both vials contained white, granular crystalline-type material.
"That told us immediately that it wasn't anthrax, and led us to believe
that the other vial didn't contain Ebola," he said.
Sometime before 7:45 p.m., three county firefighters in protective
clothing placed each of the vials in a heavy metal container about the
size of a one-gallon paint can and sealed the buckets with lids.
County spokeswoman Margaret Philbin said US Airways personnel
temporarily moved ticketing operations to outside the building. Cannon
said the inside counter reopened at 8:16 p.m.
County police Sgt Robert Downey Jr. said one of his colleagues and FBI
agents went to the East End section of Pittsburgh late last night to
interview someone in connection with the incident.
Anthrax is a bacteria that, when its spores are inhaled, can cause "an
overwhelming case of pneumonia," said Dr. Bruce Dixon, county Health
Department director, who was summoned to the scene.
Unless treated with antibiotics, anthrax can kill, he said.
Dixon said Ebola is usually an insect-borne virus that causes internal
hemorrhaging and multiple organ failure and can lead to death within 24
to 48 hours.
County Commissioners Mike Dawida and Bob Cranmer, who also were called
to the airport, said the event was treated extremely seriously because
officials were not certain what they were handling.
The (Pittsburgh) Post-Gazette, March 27, 1999
Middle East
Saudi Arabia: Running on Empty
Is the political inertia that has gripped Saudi Arabia's ruling family
in recent years about to lift?
The way in which the Saudis engineered the oil production cuts ratified
by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries last week was a
rare show of leadership.
The Saudis helped pave the way for the deal by resolving a dispute with
Iran and by abandoning the central plank of the kingdom's oil policy -
that it would not cut output substantially below 8m barrels a day.
They were also said to have threatened behind the scenes that unless an
agreement to cut production were reached, they would open the taps and
drive prices through the floor, launching a price war with Iran and
Venezuela and putting marginal higher-cost producers out of business.
The hesitance of Saudi rulers has exacerbated the kingdom's problems in
recent years. Saudi Arabia has appeared unwilling to exert leadership in
the oil world commensurate with its role as the biggest crude producer
and exporter and the largest single reserve holder. It has been as
reluctant to take decisive steps at home to reform the economy and
accustom its population to living in a climate of low oil prices.
In Opec, Saudi officials would rarely propose policy initiatives,
waiting instead for others to raise issues, most of which failed to gain
Saudi support.
Officials maintained that the kingdom's low-key approach was merely to
avoid being accused of dominating the exporters' group. But outside
observers saw it more as a symptom of indecisiveness at the top.
The financial pressure from last year's collapse in oil prices, however,
finally forced Saudi hands. Like other Gulf Arab states, Saudi Arabia is
a cash-driven society, and the drop in oil revenues put unprecedented
strain on government financing.
Twenty years ago, Saudi Arabia was awash with cash. Income per head was
approaching $17,000, making it one of the half dozen richest states in
the world. The fabled kingdom of the Al-Saud could have bought several
Fortune 500 companies for cash. By 1997 income per head had slumped to
$7,500, because of falling oil revenues and a phenomenal annual
population growth rate of 3.8 per cent.
Saudi Arabia's domestic debt was assigned junk bond status earlier this
year by Moody's, the rating agency. It is already more than 100 per cent
of gross domestic product. Civil service salaries have not been raised
since 1977.
With the budget deficit for 1998 soaring to 9 per cent of GDP and a
current account deficit at 12.5 per cent, hedge funds have been circling
the Saudi currency, the riyal. This, despite statements by Ibrahim
al-Assaf, the Saudi finance minister, that the riyal will not be
devalued.
Yet the Saudi government has reacted only marginally. Economic strategy,
according to Saudi businessmen, exists only on paper, and the will to
implement structural reforms is lacking.
The government has started to restructure the heavily subsidised power
and electricity sector and a price structure for the new Saudi
Electricity Company will raise tariffs 20 per cent for industrial users
and big household consumers. Port and airport services are also being
contracted out to the private sector. If the government sticks to its
plans, the Saudi Telecommunications Company will make a partial initial
public offering next year.
But bankers and businessmen say much more has to be done. The government
has made little or no progress to divest its holdings of commercial
banks and Saudi Basic Industries, the petrochemicals conglomerate, is
still 70 per cent owned by the state.
The foreign investment law needs revamping. Inadequate economic
information, trade regulations and the lack of transparency in public
accounting conflict with the kingdom's aspiration to join the World
Trade Organisation. This also deters Saudi investors from repatriating
the $500bn (£307bn) they are estimated to be keeping abroad. While too
little has been done to encourage Saudi investment, the high tax rate on
foreign companies also inhibits foreign investment.
The government continues to spend heavily on subsidies. In the 1995
budget it raised charges on utilities for the first time, which until
then had been virtually free. The move, a response to falling oil
prices, was widely applauded, but it did not set a trend. By the
following year, oil prices were back on the rise and plans for raising
more revenues were shelved.
Part of the reason for the slow pace of reform, according to Khalid
Al-Turki, a prominent business figure in the Eastern province, Saudi
Arabia's industrial heartland, is that the ruling elite does not really
believe the private sector can do a more cost-efficient job than the
state, which has provided its citizens with everything they could want.
Another reason is the Al-Saud's instinctive reluctance to set a pace of
reform that could be out of line with the country's Islamic constitution
and practice, and with its conservative ulema, religious leaders.
Analysts say the country's education system, steeped in Islamic
tradition and overseen by religious authorities, is the most resistant
to change. "The Saudi education system is churning out tens of thousands
of graduates who are unqualified and unemployable in the private
sector," complains one Saudi businessman.
Yet a third reason for the inertia is to be found in the hierarchical
and tribal structure of Saudi Arabia's political system, where rigid
traditions and attitudes conflict with many people's aspirations to
build a modern society.
At the apex of the tribal hierarchy is the sick 78-year-old King Fahd
Bin Abdul-Aziz Al-Saud and core members of the Al-Saud ruling family,
all in their 60s and 70s. These members fill all the key cabinet posts
and provincial governorships. This system's outlook is paternalistic,
statist, centralised, obsessed with censorship and internal security,
and still anchored to a bygone age.
Having seen in their lifetime the kingdom rise from primitive desert
land to one of the most generous welfare states in the world, the rulers
might think that even in today's conditions they have done spectacularly
well by their people. But 60 per cent of the Saudi population is under
the age of 20 and young Saudis see a less rosy future.
Fast population growth has also strained the personal links between
society and the royal family. Before population pressures became so
acute, individual Saudis could directly petition the royal family for
financial or other help. While personal links still feature today, they
are increasingly frayed.
In addition to a cultural and structural resistance to change, however,
there has been a general paralysis in Saudi decision-making in recent
years, which reflects the ambiguous state of the top leadership.
Crown Prince Abdullah has been managing the day-to-day affairs of the
kingdom, and he is seen as a force for change. Despite his 76 years, the
crown prince is said to have leadership qualities not seen since King
Faisal's reign a generation ago.
Prince Abdullah has encouraged moves to deregulate the economy, and he
backs ministers' plans for restructuring. He has taken the lead in
opening up a dialogue with US energy companies to play a broader role in
the hitherto sacred preserves of the upstream energy sector.
But it is the ailing King Fahd who continues to have the final word and
he is reluctant at the end of his reign to take decisions that will be
seen as upsetting the social and political bargain between rulers and
ruled.
"Abdullah is playing a very active role in the government but Fahd is
still king, so decisions affecting large groups of people have to be
weighed against how he will be remembered in history," says a senior
banker. "Everyone sees what has to happen but there is a natural
reluctance to make changes."
Two years ago, the crown prince gave instructions to chambers of
commerce and the majlis al-shura - the country's consultative council
with no executive powers or even the right to debate the budget - to
review policy changes and make recommendations. The homework has been
completed and results have started to come in, including proposals to
consider a tax on consumption.
Much to the surprise of observers, the budget for this year - drawn up
in December when oil prices were collapsing - projects cuts in capital
and defence spending but proposes no revenue-raising measures. In the
words of one economist: "The budget was done as if there was sunshine
outside."
The show of leadership recently manifested by Saudi rulers on oil policy
is a sign that they are willing to react - at least on one front - when
times get too tough. Oil analysts say the deal had Crown Prince
Abdullah's imprint all over it. The expectation is that once the
succession is cleared, the crown prince will show similar decisiveness
on domestic economic issues.
The oil price recovery, even if temporary, buys the Saudis some time.
The kingdom's resilience should also not be under-estimated. Hedge funds
that have attacked the riyal may be unaware of the pride attached to
maintaining the currency's peg to the dollar and the length to which the
government would go to defend it. London bankers say the kingdom could
easily and rapidly raise funds internationally, given its low level of
foreign debt.
"What people cannot gauge," adds banker Ali Al-Shihabi, "is how much fat
there is in the system," a remark that suggests people do not know how
much pain the economy can take without collapsing. But most of all, he
says, people underestimate Saudi Arabia's ability to muddle through.
The Financial Times, March 29, 1999
-----
Aloha, He'Ping,
Om, Shalom, Salaam.
Em Hotep, Peace Be,
Omnia Bona Bonis,
All My Relations.
Adieu, Adios, Aloha.
Amen.
Roads End
Kris
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