-Caveat Lector-

Kris Millegan wrote:
>
>  -Caveat Lector-
>
> an excerpt from:
> Mellon's Millions
> Harvey O'Conner©1933
> Blue Ribbon Books
> New York, N.Y.
> --[16]--
>
> 16
>
> The Crash
>
>
> On October 15, 1929, Irving Fisher, Yale business wizard, declared that stock
> prices have reached "what looks like a permanently high plateau." He
> pooh-poohed Rival Roger Babson's prediction of a 50-60 point drop in the near
> future.
>
> Then the walls came tumbling down.
>
snip
>
> The House turned to the tariff. Partly to strafe the foreigners who had
> brought on the crisis, partly to increase revenue, partly to revive
> employment in domestic factories, rates were jacked up. Secretary Mellon
> lacked confidence in any of these announced ends of the Smoot-Hawley tariff.
> Hoover wobbled and then signed the bill, and asked his Chancellor to reassure
> business. Mellon damned the new tariff with faint praise. At least, he said,
> the enactment of the law removed uncertainty which had prevailed for fifteen
> months over its provisions.
>

This is misleading, though if you study it carefully you will see hints
of the truth. Notice the last sentence. It says "the enactment of the
law removed uncertainty which had prevailed for fifteen months over its
provisions. Does this mean that there was certainty that it would pass
or what precisely would be the provisions? According to Jude Wanniski
(www.polyconomics.com), the Smoot-Hawley tariff bill passed by a large
margin the committee it was assigned. It was a near certainty that it
would pass at that point. That was within days prior to the stock market
crash. WAnniski attributes the crash to the anticipation of this
tremendous increase in tariff rates and the realization that this would
start a major trade war with decreasing profits resulting and thus a
fall in stock values.

Howard Davis

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