-Caveat Lector- Print this article | Close this window China may be trying to get off the fence By Hamish McDonald, Herald Correspondent in Beijing February 13 2003
Is China about to join the Axis of Weasels? A telephone conversation on Tuesday night between French President Jacques Chirac and Chinese President Jiang Zemin has set off a flurry of speculation that Beijing is siding with a European push to delay the looming American-led attack on Iraq. After the talk, the Chinese official news agency Xinhua lost no time in putting out a bulletin that Mr Jiang had expressed support for the French, German and Russian declaration seeking reinforced United Nations weapons inspections in Iraq, and to postpone a decision on military intervention. "We should try all means to avoid war," Mr Jiang was quoted as saying. If China is drifting to support the French position, after long signalling it would abstain from opposing the United States over a military strike, then the UN Security Council debate starting tomorrow could produce three vetoes from among the five permanent members. With this prospect, the US may then opt to attack Iraq without seeking a second Security Council resolution giving explicit authorisation, and simply claim a mandate flowing from the earlier one combined with Iraqi President Saddam Hussein's inadequate response. But the political embarrassment for America's "coalition of the willing" will be deeper, particularly for Britain's Tony Blair and Australia's John Howard who both face strong public opposition to intervention without a UN mandate. But who called whom on Tuesday night? The Xinhua report said Mr Chirac called Mr Zemin. But China analysts say that Beijing always reports that such phone calls originate with the foreign party, partly to emphasise China's importance and partly to downplay Chinese initiatives in case they go wrong. Up to now, it has been considered likely that China will go along passively with an American intervention, as it did in 1990 when it abstained from the Security Council vote authorising the first Gulf War. Mr Jiang, who steps down as president next month, has invested his prestige in an even relationship with Washington, and made little demurral in his summit meet with US President George Bush last October. Energy-importer China has a big stake in Iraqi oil, also, having signed long- term contracts with Baghdad that give it virtual ownership of huge undeveloped oil fields in the country. It would be worried that an irked US, running the post-Saddam occupation of Iraq, might nullify contracts signed by the ousted regime. But the wider Chinese leadership is uneasy at the spectacle of American unilateralism and deliberate regime-change, which Washington would be encouraged to apply elsewhere - among China's peripheral friends like North Korea and maybe Burma - if successful in Baghdad. The emergence of the French- German-Russian opposition may be giving it a chance to "hide in the crowd" putting a brake on the Americans. The task of deciphering Chinese policy is made even more difficult by the apparent contradictory approach with North Korea. With Iraq, Beijing seeks a solution within the United Nations. With North Korea, it is urging Washington to settle the nuclear weapons issue through direct bilateral talks with Pyongyang rather that through a multilateral approach as the Americans favour or by referring the issue to the security council. This story was found at: http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2003/02/12/1044927663992.html Forwarded for your information. 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