-Caveat Lector-

This article can be found on the web at
http://www.thenation.com/doc.mhtml?i=20030303&s=wilson

Republic or Empire?
by JOSEPH WILSON

[from the March 3, 2003 issue]

As the senior American diplomat in Baghdad during Desert Shield, I
advocated a muscular US response to Saddam's brutal annexation of Kuwait in
flagrant violation of the United Nations charter. Only the credible threat
of force could hope to reverse his invasion. Our in-your-face strategy
secured the release of the 150 American "human shields"--hostages--but
ultimately it took war to drive Iraq from Kuwait. I was disconsolate at the
failure of diplomacy, but Desert Storm was necessitated by Saddam's
intransigence, it was sanctioned by the UN and it was conducted with a
broad international military coalition. The goal was explicit and focused;
war was the last resort.

The upcoming military operation also has one objective, though different
from the several offered by the Bush Administration. This war is not about
weapons of mass destruction. The intrusive inspections are disrupting
Saddam's programs, as even the Administration has acknowledged. Nor is it
about terrorism. Virtually all agree war will spawn more terrorism, not
less. It is not even about liberation of an oppressed people. Killing
innocent Iraqi civilians in a full frontal assault is hardly the only or
best way to liberate a people. The underlying objective of this war is the
imposition of a Pax Americana on the region and installation of vassal
regimes that will control restive populations.

Without the firing of a single cruise missile, the Administration has
already established a massive footprint in the Gulf and Southwest Asia from
which to project power. US generals, admirals and diplomats have
crisscrossed the region like modern-day proconsuls, cajoling fragile
governments to permit American access and operations from their
territories.

Bases have been established as stepping stones to Afghanistan and Iraq, but
also as tripwires in countries that fear their neighbors. Northern Kuwait
has been ceded to American forces and a significant military presence
established in Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and
Oman. The over-the-horizon posture of a decade ago has given way to boots
on the ground and forward command headquarters. Nations in the region,
having contracted with the United States for their security umbrella, will
now listen when Washington tells them to tailor policies and curb
anti-Western dissent. Hegemony in the Arab nations of the Gulf has been
achieved.

Meanwhile, Saddam might well squirm, but even without an invasion, he's
finished. He is surrounded, foreigners are swarming through his palaces,
and as Colin Powell so compellingly showed at the UN, we are watching and
we are listening. International will to disarm Iraq will not wane as it did
in the 1990s, for the simple reason that George W. Bush keeps challenging
the organization to remain relevant by keeping pressure on Saddam. Nations
that worry that, as John le Carré puts it, "America has entered one of its
periods of historical madness" will not want to jettison the one
institution that, absent a competing military power, might constrain US
ambition.

Then what's the point of this new American imperialism? The
neoconservatives with a stranglehold on the foreign policy of the
Republican Party, a party that traditionally eschewed foreign military
adventures, want to go beyond expanding US global influence to force
revolutionary change on the region. American pre-eminence in the Gulf is
necessary but not sufficient for the hawks. Nothing short of conquest,
occupation and imposition of handpicked leaders on a vanquished population
will suffice. Iraq is the linchpin for this broader assault on the region.
The new imperialists will not rest until governments that ape our worldview
are implanted throughout the region, a breathtakingly ambitious
undertaking, smacking of hubris in the extreme. Arabs who complain about
American-supported antidemocratic regimes today will find us in even more
direct control tomorrow. The leader of the future in the Arab world will
look a lot more like Pakistan's Pervez Musharraf than Thomas Jefferson.

There is a huge risk of overreach in this tack. The projection of influence
and power through the use of force will breed resistance in the Arab world
that will sorely test our political will and stamina. Passion for
independence is as great in the Arab world as it is elsewhere. The hawks
compare this mission to Japan and Germany after World War II. It could
easily look like Lebanon, Somalia and Northern Ireland instead.

Our global leadership will be undermined as fear gives way to resentment
and strategies to weaken our stranglehold. American businessmen already
complain about hostility when overseas, and Arabs speak openly of
boycotting American products. Foreign capital is fleeing American stocks
and bonds; the United States is no longer a friendly destination for
international investors. For a borrow-and-spend Administration, as this one
is, the effects on our economic growth will be felt for a long time to
come. Essential trust has been seriously damaged and will be difficult to
repair.

Even in the unlikely event that war does not come to pass, the would-be
imperialists have achieved much of what they sought, some of it good. It is
encouraging that the international community is looking hard at terrorism
and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. But the upcoming
battle for Baghdad and the lengthy occupation of Iraq will utterly
undermine any steps forward. And with the costs to our military, our
treasury and our international standing, we will be forced to learn whether
our republican roots and traditions can accommodate the Administration's
imperial ambitions. It may be a bitter lesson.

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