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from the March 18, 2003 edition -
http://www.csmonitor.com/2003/0318/p07s01-woap.html

Moderate Muslims fear fundamentalist backlash from war

Terrorist leaders recruit with claims of a global, US-led 'crusade' against
Islam.
By Dan Murphy | Special to the Christian Science Monitor

SINGAPORE - One of America's stated goals for an invasion of Iraq is to
bring a more open political system to that country. US officials say a
postwar Iraq might just prove a model for Muslim nations across the globe.

But from Pakistan to Indonesia, Islamic reformers who are allies of
pluralism and moderation are watching the kmassing of US troops in the Gulf
with something approaching panic. They expect an Iraq war to galvanize
Muslim populations - but not in the way the US hopes. They fear that in the
slipstream of invasion will be a surge of global Muslim anger that will play
into the hands of fundamentalist politicians and curtail reformers'
influence.

"A unilateral US war in Iraq will put the moderates and liberals in the
Islamic world in a difficult position,'' says Andrew Tan, a political
scientist at the Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies in Singapore.
"The reality will be the creation of greater support for the radicals."

That support is by and large peaceful, but on its far fringes, it feeds
terrorism. Fundamentalist leaders recruit with claims that a global, US-led
"crusade" against Muslims can be countered only with Islamic unity and
government. In deposition after deposition, terrorists with links to Al
Qaeda - whether Indonesian operatives involved in last year's bomb attack in
Bali or senior Al Qaeda members in US custody - insist they're defending
themselves against a US-led "crusade."

It's no accident that Osama bin Laden calls his organization "The World
Islamic Front for Jihad Against Jews and Crusaders" more often than he calls
it "Al Qaeda." Imam Samudra, a confessed leader of the Al Qaeda-linked cell
that blew up two Bali nightclubs last October, cited everything from the US
invasion of Afghanistan to sectarian violence in India as evidence of a
US-led war against Islam and justification for the attack.

Now, Dr. Tan says, Iraq will be added to that list, since the US has failed
to convince the global Muslim community that a planned invasion of Iraq is
justified. "This could add to the reservoir of revenge sentiment and a rise
in anti-Americanism."

He says the invasion will also hurt Islamic reformers because it elevates
the importance of religious unity - a core concept in Islam, which calls for
the creation of a brotherhood of believers that emphasizes solidarity and
mutual assistance. This romantic vision inspires both Arab volunteers who
claim to be seeking martyrdom in defense of Hussein's regime and
peace-loving participants at antiwar rallies from Dhaka to Kuala Lumpur.
That, in turn, puts power in the hands of conservative clerics who argue
that reformers are introducing dangerous divisions.

"The invasion could tighten the space for Muslims to talk about what role
their religion should play,'' says Suzaina Kadir, a political scientist who
tracks Islamic political currents at the National University of Singapore.

Ulil Abshar-Abdalla knows how hard it is to speak out about reforming Islam.
The Indonesian cleric runs the Liberal Islam Network and is a member of an
interfaith organization promoting tolerance. Indonesia, which has the
world's largest Muslim population, also has significant Hindu and Christian
minorities.

Late last year, Athian Ali, an Indonesian cleric who advocates an Islamic
state, issued a death threat against Mr. Ulil because of the latter's
argument that wearing a veil and cutting off the hands of thieves are not
required under Islam.

Other Islamic opponents have sought to brand him a "US puppet" for his
views. Ulil worries that his struggle could lose further ground in the event
of a US invasion.

"There is a possibility that this war will increase the prominence of the
radicals and make their opinions seem more credible,'' he says. "It's not
happening yet, but that could change as soon as there are civilian
casualties."

Indonesian Islamist political groups who say they expect big gains in the
2004 election, have begun to criticize the government for not being strong
enough in its condemnation of the US. President Megawati Sukarnoputri has
upped the antiwar rhetoric in response. Five cabinet ministers attended
antiwar protests earlier this month.

A minor casualty of invasion may also be the loss of US prestige in the eyes
of reformers like Ulil. "For people like me, it's easy to separate between
the American government and American people - but of course I'm really
disappointed by the Bush administration. From my perspective, the Bush war
in Iraq is a sort of jihad, its own sort of fundamentalism."

Yesterday, Islamic scholars in Cairo called on Muslims to fight a jihad if
US forces invade Iraq. Their comments followed a sermon last week by a
moderate Egyptian cleric, Sheik Yusuf al-Qaradawi, asking Muslims not to aid
US troops.

Erstwhile Muslim allies are being pushed away from America. In Malaysia,
Prime Minister Mahathir Mohammed delivered a thinly veiled attack on the US
earlier this month that stung US officials, who had been pleased with
Malaysia's efforts to neutralize Al Qaeda-linked terror cells over the past
year.

Political analysts say that while Dr. Mahathir's comments probably reflected
his opinions, the force and publicity with which they were delivered was
calculated to protect his own position from attack by the Pan-Malaysian
Islamic Party (PAS), his principal opposition and an advocate of making
Malaysia an Islamic state. PAS has been gaining in strength in recent years,
and has often sought to portray the secular Mahathir as pro-American.

Most frightening, from a US perspective, has been the boom in support for
fundamentalist Islamic parties in Pakistan, which have used the US ties of
the regime of General Pervez Musharraf, who came to power in a bloodless
coup in 1999, to win political support.

In national elections last October, the Islamist coalition won a third of
the seats in parliament and control of the Northwest Frontier province by
hammering Musharraf on his support for the US invasion of Afghanistan.

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