-Caveat Lector- http://www.haaretzdaily.com/hasen/pages/ShArt.jhtml?itemNo=274223&contrassID=1&subContrassID=1&sbSubContrassID=0&listSrc=Y
Analysis / The U.S. is almost alone in its waron Iraq By Zvi Bar'el, Haaretz Correspondent According to a new joke in Jordan, U.S. President George W. Bush will announce Tuesday that the final oppotunity to prevent a war against Iraq is if French President Jacques Chirac and his family leave France of their own volition and be exiled to Baghdad. Arab commentators are not taking the real American ultimatum seriously, according to which Saddam Hussein's departure from Iraq could actually prevent war. It also appears as if the U.S. president has no illusions regarding Saddam's intentions, which have already been clarified by Iraq. The ultimatum will provide a short delay for anyone wishing to leave Iraq before the bombing gets underway. UN inspectors already received the first evacuation warning on Sunday, and on Monday received a public order; diplomatic delegations, UN monitors and foreign businessmen were also ordered to leave Iraq. For Washington, the diplomatic window has closed, after it said that it has no intention of submitting its doomed proposal to the UN Security Council. But it is possible that on Tuesday the council's foreign ministers, especially Russia, will try to make an effort to get another postponement. Another possibility is that the Security Council will attempt to undertake a resolution condemning the unilateral step taken by the United States and Britain, which according to the UN Secretary General, will be in violation of the organization's treaty. This proposal does not have a real chance to be accepted, and if it is submitted, it would serve only as a declarative step by the opposing countries. By the end of the week, the United States (together with 40,000 British troops) will launch a war to oust Saddam's regime. This will be an American war, and it seems as if an American military victory would constitute only the first part of the campaign. This time around the war against Iraq will take place without an international coalition (while crushing the UN's status), without a northern front in Turkey and without Arab support; but with a British ally whose status is threatened by internal political dissent, with negative world opinion and American public opinion that is, at best, divided on the military step, and with a good chance of generating two internal civil wars parallel to the war on Iraq - amid Iraqi factions that will race for control over the country, and between Turkey and the Kurds. Washington warned Turkey on Monday not to launch its army into Kurdish areas, and in talks held between Kurdish and Turkish officials, the two sides promised not to sabotage the U.S. war efforts. But according to Turkish sources, too many suspicions exist, and if Turkey learns that Kurdish forces, trained by U.S. troops, intend to move south, it may violate its commitment to the United States and send forces to the Kurdish enclave. Turkey is also concerned by the entrance of several thousands of armed Shi'ite opposition members, belonging to the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq, also known as the Badr Brigades. These people arrived in northern Iraq from Iran and plan to join the Kurds as a fighting force. Against all these threats the U.S. has to win not only a resounding and mainly quick victory, but must also demonstrate the ability and willingness to conduct a civilian conquest that would not stir regional unrest in Arab countries and among terror organizations. Regarding the preparations in Iraq, Saddam Hussein has ordered his troops to refrain from any response during the first stage of the war, and to try and ride out the stage of heavy bombings with minimal losses. The Iraqi president is taking his chances on the second stage, the ground assault, and especially on the exhausting strategy of urban warfare. According to a senior Jordanian source, Saddam understands that he does not have the military strength to deal with American power and technology, but he believes that a high number of U.S. casualties may increase internal U.S. opposition to the the war and curb the offensive before it is complete. Saddam has divided his country to four military regions, and appointed his close aides to head them. This division is intended to ensure his presence on all the fronts, and to allow for decentralization among his close associates, in the event that U.S. bombs break communications between Saddam's headquarters and field HQs. Under such conditions, each of the supreme commanders is entitled to activate forces according to his understanding, without prior consultations with Saddam. <A HREF="http://www.ctrl.org/";>www.ctrl.org</A> DECLARATION & DISCLAIMER ========== CTRL is a discussion & informational exchange list. Proselytizing propagandic screeds are unwelcomed. Substance—not soap-boxing—please! These are sordid matters and 'conspiracy theory'—with its many half-truths, mis- directions and outright frauds—is used politically by different groups with major and minor effects spread throughout the spectrum of time and thought. That being said, CTRLgives no endorsement to the validity of posts, and always suggests to readers; be wary of what you read. CTRL gives no credence to Holocaust denial and nazi's need not apply. Let us please be civil and as always, Caveat Lector. ======================================================================== Archives Available at: http://peach.ease.lsoft.com/archives/ctrl.html <A HREF="http://peach.ease.lsoft.com/archives/ctrl.html";>Archives of [EMAIL PROTECTED]</A> http://archive.jab.org/[EMAIL PROTECTED]/ <A HREF="http://archive.jab.org/[EMAIL PROTECTED]/">ctrl</A> ======================================================================== To subscribe to Conspiracy Theory Research List[CTRL] send email: SUBSCRIBE CTRL [to:] [EMAIL PROTECTED] To UNsubscribe to Conspiracy Theory Research List[CTRL] send email: SIGNOFF CTRL [to:] [EMAIL PROTECTED] Om
