-Caveat Lector-

http://www.suntimes.com/output/novak/cst-edt-novak201.html
Turkey, Iran set sights on Northern Iraq

March 20, 2003

BY ROBERT NOVAK SUN-TIMES COLUMNIST

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On Wednesday last week, a special envoy of the president of Iran traveled
to Ankara for talks with Turkish leaders. What business did America's enemy
(and ''axis of evil'' member) have with America's ally in NATO? The informed
suspicion is that they were dividing up northern Iraq between them in
advance of an anticipated U.S. military victory.

That runs against American war aims. The day after the Iranian- Turkish
meeting, President Bush sent a letter to Ankara that, in reportedly blunt
language, told the Turks to keep hands off Iraq. As he closed the door on
diplomacy Monday, Secretary of State Colin Powell stressed that Turkey
had been informed of the U.S. commitment to maintaining Iraq's territorial
integrity.

Actually, Iraq is an artificial country, created by the British Colonial Office
after World War I by combining three provinces of the defeated Ottoman
(Turkish) Empire containing antipathetic ethnic groups. Nevertheless,
keeping Iraq intact and making it democratic is the first step in George W.
Bush's Wilsonian design of transforming the Arab world. A threat from Iran
and Turkey would begin multiple reconstruction difficulties even before
the shooting ends.

The March 12 visit to Ankara was made by Iranian presidential envoy
Behzad Nabavi to senior Turkish officials, including President Ahmet
Necdet Sezer. Most news reports had Nabavi congratulating the Turks on
their refusal to permit U.S. troops to invade Iraq from Turkey. Behind
closed doors, however, it is believed they talked more about mutual
opposition to the now autonomous Kurds of northern Iraq becoming an
independent nation that reaches out to Kurds in Turkey and Iran.

''Cooperation between Tehran and Ankara,'' reports Stratfor, the private
intelligence service, ''would further erode the Kurds' limited chances for
retaining autonomy and instead may set up de facto Turkish and Iranian
rule in northern Iraq.'' That contradicts the conventional wisdom that
Tehran dreads a Turkish incursion in Iraq.

On March 13, Bush sent his letter, described as ''harsh'' by the Turkish
press, to Turkey's newly elected Prime Minister Recep Tayip Erdogan.
While those accounts depicted Bush as mainly interested in gaining access
to Turkey for the U.S. 4th Infantry Division, American sources say the
president was really pressing a hands- off-Iraq message on Turkey. On
Monday, Powell went out of his way to say the U.S. government has
''assured the Turks that in anything the future might hold, we are
committed to the territorial integrity of Iraq.''

Bush aide Zalmay Khalilzad was sent to Ankara this week to negotiate.
Actually, it was too late to use Turkey as an invasion base. Under
discussion was the unspoken Turkish desire to send troops into Iraq. Much
as Bush desires a ''coalition of the willing,'' he does not want Turkey's army
in Iraq's Kurdish autonomous region. U.S. Special Forces operatives, who
slipped into Iraq, are openly working with Kurdish militia.

Stratfor reports that Turkey has already moved 7,000 troops into that
region, with several thousand more on the Turkish side of the border. It
also indicates Iranian troops are working with their Kurdish allies. The
Turkish-Iranian partnership, though odd on its face, is possible and points
up the complexity of dealing with ''post-war'' Iraq's problems.

Such problems, Senate Foreign Relations Committee members privately
complain, have been taken out of the State Department's jurisdiction and
given to the Defense Department. They suggest Gen. Tommy Franks has his
hands full as theater commander-in-chief without having to plan his
designated assignment as a MacArthur-like proconsul in occupied Baghdad.

Sen. Richard Lugar, the Republican chairman of Foreign Relations, recently
convened hearings on whether anybody in the administration is doing such
planning. Government witnesses were disappointing--especially Douglas
Feith, undersecretary of Defense and the heavy thinker at the Pentagon.
Several senators asked about the fate of the Kurds, but he did not give
much of an answer.

''It is very hard,'' said Feith at one point, ''to tell you precisely what we plan
to do because so much . . . depends on how events unfold.'' He hastened
to add, however, that ''a great deal of thought has been given'' to the
problems posed by the senators. Hopefully, that includes countering an
international power grab in northern Iraq.



















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