"The effects of some of these engineered biological agents could be
worse than any disease known to man," the panel told the CIA.
The unclassified two-page CIA report dated Nov. 3, 2003, and titled
"The Darker Bioweapons Future," was posted on the Federation of American
Scientists Web site at http:/www.fas.org/irp/cia/product/bw1103.pdf.
It summed up a January workshop of a panel of non-government science
experts who discussed with the CIA the potential threat from new
biological weapons.
Growth in biotechnology and a knowledge explosion due to the genomic
revolution which provided an understanding of genes and how they work
could be used in unpredictable ways, the panel warned.
"The same science that may cure some of our worst diseases could be
used to create the world's most frightening weapons," the report said.
In the next decade or beyond, some of the unconventional pathogens that
could arise included binary biological warfare agents that only become
effective when two components are combined, such as a mild pathogen and
its antidote, the panel of experts said.
There could be development of "designer" biological warfare agents
created to be antibiotic-resistant or evade an immune response, weaponized
gene therapy vectors that cause permanent change in the victim's genetic
makeup, or a "stealth" virus which could lie dormant inside the victim for
an extended period before being triggered, the report said.
STEALTH VIRUS ATTACK
One panelist gave as an example the possibility of a stealth virus
attack that could cripple a large portion of people in their forties with
severe arthritis, leaving a country with massive health and economic
problems.
"The resulting diversity of new BW (biological warfare) agents could
enable such a broad range of attack scenarios that it would be virtually
impossible to anticipate and defend against," the report said. "As a
result, there could be a considerable lag time in developing effective
biodefense measures."
Traditional intelligence methods for monitoring development of weapons
of mass destruction "could prove inadequate" in dealing with the threat
from advanced biological weapons, the report said.
Detecting the development of novel bioengineered pathogens will
increasingly depend on human intelligence and require a closer working
relationship between the intelligence and biological sciences community,
the report said.
One panelist proposed that the bioscience community help government by
acting as a "living sensor web" at international conferences, in
university labs and through informal networks, to identify and alert about
new technical advances with weaponization potential, the report said.
"The quality of intelligence can only improve from the rough and tumble
of peer review and outside input," said Steven Aftergood, director of the
government secrecy project at the Federation of American Scientists.
"In the past, CIA has been completely insular, they have been unwilling
to engage with outside experts," he said, "and so this is a welcome
departure from that norm."
