-Caveat Lector-

Buffet agrees with me: Stocks overpriced and it is a good bet to bet against the
dollar. Unfortunately he deals in billions, me in thousands.
flw

FINANCIAL TIMES
Buffett sceptical on investment values
By Dan Roberts in New York
Published: March 5 2004 16:28 | Last Updated: March 5 2004 16:28

Berkshire Hathaway, the insurance and holding company run by legendary investor
Warren Buffett, almost doubled profits last year but revealed it was holding
onto a record $31bn of its assets in cash or cash equivalents.

The "gusher of cash" kept on the sidelines, up from $10bn in 2002, is the
clearest signal yet of Mr Buffett's continued scepticism about the valuations of
companies open to investment.

This comes despite the benefits of a recovering economy and better management of
Berkshire's own insurance businesses, which combined to increase pre-tax profits
by 88 per cent to $12bn.

"It [2003] was a terrific year for our insurance business, but the big boost
that gave to earnings was largely offset by the pathetically low interest rates
we earned on our large holdings of cash equivalents," said Mr Buffet in his
annual letter shareholders.

Berkshire's investment strategy also highlights the difficulty of finding
meaningful returns at a company that has grown so large. Berkshire shares
underperformed against the S&P 500 index of big US companies by 7.7 per cent in
2003, but have outperformed by an average of 11.8 per cent over the last 38
years.

"Our capital is under-utilised now.. It's a painful condition to be in - but not
as painful as doing something stupid," added Mr Buffett. "We have purchased a
number of businesses in recent years, though not enough to fully employ the
gusher of cash that has come our way."

The chairman's caution has been largely justified in the past, particularly
during the technology bubble in 1999, which was the last time that Berkshire
shares underperformed against the S&P 500.

Mr Buffett also highlighted a number of risks to the US economy that add to last
year's warnings on derivatives and corporate governance. In particular, he
singled out the weak dollar as a cause for concern and revealed that Berkshire
Hathaway had $12bn invested in foreign currencies to balance its exposure to the
greenback.

"Prevailing exchange rates will not lead to a material letup in our trade
deficit. So whether foreign investors like it or not they will continue to be
flooded with dollars," said Mr Buffett. "The consequences of this are anybody's
guess. They could, however, be troublesome - and reach, in fact, well beyond
currency markets."

The so-called "Sage of Omaha", whose annual letter to shareholders is keenly
anticipated as a commentary on corporate America, was also dismissive of
attempts to reform corporate governance - singling out Jeff Immelt of General
Electric as a rare exception.

"In judging whether corporate America is serious about reforming itself, CEO pay
remains the acid test," he said. "To date, the results aren't encouraging."

Yet Mr Buffett also conceded Berkshire's own corporate governance challenges
were a significant issue for shareholders as they increasingly worry about who
will succeed the 73-year-old chairman.

"The primary job of our directors is to select my successor, either upon my
death or disability, or when I begin to lose my marbles... the real discussion
centres on the strengths and weaknesses of the four internal candidates to
replace me."



Find this article at:
http://news.ft.com/s01/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c
=StoryFT&cid=1078381560768&p=1012571727088

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