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STRATFOR's
Global Intelligence Update
April 21, 1999
Conflict Spreads in Horn of Africa
Summary:
Somali warlords have accused Ethiopian troops of launching raids
deep in Somali territory. While the allegations have been denied
by the Ethiopian government, still it appears that the conflict
between Ethiopia and Eritrea is spreading by proxy, threatening
to involve not only Somalia but also Sudan and even Egypt.
Analysis:
The Somali newspaper Mogadishu Times reported April 19 that
Ethiopian troops have reached Bardaale in the Bay region of
Somalia, northwest of Mogadishu. The newspaper charged that the
Ethiopian forces had already seized many areas in the neighboring
Gedo region, which borders Ethiopia and Kenya. Ethiopia denied
allegations earlier this month that it had sent heavily armed
forces to intervene in factional fighting in Gedo region, and
will no doubt deny this deeper incursion into Somalia. However,
evidence suggests that the conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea
continues to spill over into neighboring states, intensifying
local conflicts and threatening to destabilize the region.
Somali warlords Hussein Mohamed Aideed, Ali Mahdi Mohamed, and
Omar Haji Mohamed "Masale" sent a letter to UN Secretary General
Kofi Annan on April 11, charging that heavily armed Ethiopian
forces had launched a series of attacks in Gedo region beginning
April 8, and demanding that the UN Security Council take action
against Addis Ababa. Copies of the letter were sent to the Arab
League, the OAU, and the Intergovernmental Authority on
Development (IGAD). The warlords alleged that Ethiopian forces
had occupied the towns of Bulo Hawo and Dollo in Gedo region and
had arrested local leaders.
Ethiopian government spokeswoman Selome Tadesse called the Somali
allegations "unfounded" and an attempt by "devious forces" to
portray Ethiopia as an invader. She said that Ethiopia had
captured a group of Somalis on the 10th or 11th near Dollo as
they attempted to smuggle large amounts of explosives from
multiple countries of origin into Ethiopia. However the BBC,
Agence France Presse, and the Indian Ocean Newsletter all
reported that Ethiopian troops had intervened in the area on
behalf of one faction in a power struggle within the Somali
National Front -- the faction opposed to Omar Haji Mohamed and
the Mogadishu warlords. Kenya has reportedly closed its border
with Somalia in the region, and the Arab League has stated its
concern with the Ethiopian Army's presence within Somalia, and
announced that it would ask Addis Ababa to withdraw the troops.
Bulo Hawo is reportedly a stronghold of the fundamentalist rebel
group Al-Ittihad Al-Islam, and Ethiopia has carried out attacks
on the group several times in the past. Ethiopia's rebel Oromo
Liberation Front (OLF), which has allegedly received Libyan-
funded arms shipments from Eritrea, is also reportedly active in
Gedo region. As we reported April 7, both Ethiopia and Eritrea
are arming competing factions in Somalia in a growing proxy war
[http://www.stratfor.com/services/giu/040799.asp]. In addition
to the list of countercharges outlined in our last report,
Ethiopia has alleged that Arab doctors are tending to wounded
Eritrean officers at a clinic in southern Somalia controlled by
Hussein Mohamed Aideed. Ethiopia also suggested that the recent
kidnapping of three people in eastern Ethiopia was carried out by
the Ogaden National Liberation Front, also allegedly supported by
Eritrea via Aideed in Somalia. Aideed, in turn, claimed his
militia killed three Somali agents of the Ethiopian government
sent to Mogadishu to abduct Oromo rebel leaders. An official at
Ethiopia's embassy in Nairobi denied Aideed's allegation, calling
it "a continuation of the fabrications made by certain forces in
Somalia who are explicitly supported by Eritrea."
While the spillover of the Ethiopian-Eritrean conflict into
Somalia is apparently increasing, it is not the only potentially
dangerous extension of that conflict. Sudan's foreign ministry
on April 19 requested a postponement of peace talks with the
opposition Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA), scheduled to be
held April 20-25 in Nairobi, under the auspices of the IGAD.
Sudan has charged the SPLA with repeatedly violating a cease fire
agreement. While it was Khartoum that called off the talks, the
Ethiopian-Eritrean war is having a serious impact on the peace
process. Ethiopia and Eritrea are both members of the IGAD, and
both have actively supported and hosted the Sudanese opposition
forces. The Ethiopian-Eritrean conflict has thrown regional
alliances into a flux, disrupting the Sudanese opposition, while
the conflict has also undermined Ethiopia and Eritrea's
contribution to IGAD's attempt at negotiation.
Another emerging aspect of the Ethiopian-Eritrean conflict is its
potential linkage with the question of allocation of the water of
the Nile. Ethiopia is the source of three quarters of the Nile's
waters, while Egypt and Sudan are the river's primary consumers.
Both countries have historically been able to limit Ethiopia's
control of Nile water, even leaving it out of agreements on
division of the resource, and both have an interest in keeping
Ethiopia weak. Ethiopian media has been increasingly raising
this issue, suggesting that this might be the next area in which
Ethiopia will be forced to defend its sovereignty. Egypt and
Sudan also have interests in dominating the Red Sea, which might
be possible with an Eritrean client state.
Ethiopia has alleged that Egypt is already supporting Eritrea
with arms and expertise. Ethiopian newspapers have reported that
light and medium arms and explosives captured from Eritrean
forces were manufactured in Egypt and were payed for with Libyan
or U.S. money or were donated by wealthy Egyptians. Egypt has
claimed that has not armed Eritrea, and that the military
equipment made its way to Eritrea through third parties. Other
Eritrean reports claim that Egypt is providing Eritrea with
military advise and intelligence through military experts
masquerading as diplomats at Egypt's embassy in Asmara and
Egyptian spies in Addis Ababa.
As the world's attention is riveted on the conflict in
Yugoslavia, the Eritrean-Ethiopian conflict is quietly spreading
to involve a host of regional states and link a variety of
preexisting and otherwise unconnected disputes. With the battle
in the Democratic Republic of the Congo linking conflicts from
Sudan to Angola, the spreading crisis in the Horn of Africa could
contribute to a insoluble tangle of continent-wide conflict.
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