-Caveat Lector- Haaretz News Updates Fri., April 09, 2004 Nisan 18, 5764 Israel Time: 01:59 (GMT+3) Analysis / Iraqi rebels are worrying the U.S. and Israel
By Ze'ev Schiff Israel cannot sit by indifferently in the face of the current events in Iraq. Key individuals who are dealing with the future of the region, and not only those among the intelligence community, concur that the results of the military campaign in Iraq will also influence Israel and will also have an effect on the degree of security felt by countries in the region over the coming years. A discussion on this issue, in which representatives of all the branches of the intelligence community, among others, took part, was held yesterday in the office of Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz. Among numerous Arab states, including among the Palestinians, there exists a desire to see an American defeat. Even those who opposed Saddam Hussein perceive the events in Iraq as an Islamic victory over a foreign power that is exploiting its military strength to bring about the removal of Arab leaders and weaken the Arab nations. As a result, those who rejoiced at the ousting of Saddam Hussein are now gloating about the number of U.S. casualties. In Israel, on the other hand, the view is practically the opposite. Aside perhaps from elements among the extreme left, the U.S. military deterioration and the loss of control in Iraq is being viewed with much concern. It is common belief in Israel that an intensification in the fighting could lead to a civil war and an attempt on the part of the Iranians to intervene and replace the Americans. A military escalation in Iraq could, according to one assessment, undermine U.S. deterence in general, and in the Middle East in particular. Intelligence officials in Israel believe there will be a need to reexamine Israel's preparations with regard to expected developments in the Middle East over the coming year if the situation in Iraq deteriorates further and if Washington is witness to increased calls to abandon the country and forgo the desire to establish a democratic regime there. Such a scenario is also a possibility if Washington gets a new president who promotes a new policy. In both cases, the American deterence is likely to crack, and such a development will serve as encouragement for radical elements in the Middle East - Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, Hamas and Islamic Jihad. In light of this, Israel has a vested interest in a clear-cut U.S. victory and the rise to power in Iraq of moderate and pragmatic elements that will not constitute a danger to Iraq's neighbors and the region, and will be willing to join the war against global terror. Eye on the elections Assessments in Israel have long said that as U.S. elections draw closer, the more effort the radical elements in Iraq will make to strike at the American forces, cause more casualties and intensify their guerrilla and terror war. Thus, these elements will be able to influence the U.S. elections and contribute to the toppling of President George W. Bush. Together with the U.S. elections, the planned date for handing over power to the temporary Iraqi government is also approaching. These two dates appear to be influencing the decisions of the rebels in Iraq - both the Sunni and Shi'ites. The degree of American success will be determined not only by military plans, but also in keeping with the way in which the Americans will try to prevent a joint Sunni-Shi'ite uprising. A continued increase in the number of casualties among the Iraqi civilian population will make it harder and harder for the Americans to achieve this objective. © Copyright 2004 Haaretz. All rights reserved www.ctrl.org DECLARATION & DISCLAIMER ========== CTRL is a discussion & informational exchange list. Proselytizing propagandic screeds are unwelcomed. Substance—not soap-boxing—please! These are sordid matters and 'conspiracy theory'—with its many half-truths, mis- directions and outright frauds—is used politically by different groups with major and minor effects spread throughout the spectrum of time and thought. That being said, CTRLgives no endorsement to the validity of posts, and always suggests to readers; be wary of what you read. CTRL gives no credence to Holocaust denial and nazi's need not apply. Let us please be civil and as always, Caveat Lector. ======================================================================== Archives Available at: http://www.mail-archive.com/[EMAIL PROTECTED]/ <A HREF="http://www.mail-archive.com/[EMAIL PROTECTED]/">ctrl</A> ======================================================================== To subscribe to Conspiracy Theory Research List[CTRL] send email: SUBSCRIBE CTRL [to:] [EMAIL PROTECTED] To UNsubscribe to Conspiracy Theory Research List[CTRL] send email: SIGNOFF CTRL [to:] [EMAIL PROTECTED] Om
