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--- Begin Message ----Caveat Lector- http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/9/4/35010/97521Time poll was massaged to produce lead By Debra Cooper [Used by permission] Please note that this polling company did something unheard of during a convention. They pushed the the undecided likely voters to make a choice. Also again I want to point out that this poll was done during the RNC while the Time poll for the DNC was done 5-7 days later, not at the height of the convention. Why is this bad? Because this far out you don't push leaners. Because you don't push undecideds during a convention. The reason is obvious from they are caught in the moment to they have no contradictory information yet and they are involved and not distracted. Note the dates of 8/24-26 in which Kerry and Bush are tied 46-46 just prior to the Republican convention. In the LV section this date has an asterisk next to it. The asterisk says that in that poll they didn't push the leaners. BUT in the convention poll they did push the leaners. This act alone, just changing from not pushing the leaners to pushing the leaners surely accounts for much of the seemingly large difference. This change in methodology raises questions. And why are they not aware of the methodological problems and why don't they tell us? This indicates even more so that this poll should be played down. Time Poll conducted by SRBI Public Affairs. Aug. 31-Sept. 2, 2004. N=1,128 registered voters nationwide (MoE ± 3), 926 likely voters (MoE ± 4). "Suppose the 2004 election for president were being held today, and you had to choose between John Kerry and John Edwards, the Democrats, and George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, the Republicans. For whom would you vote?" If undecided: "Even though you haven't made up your mind yet, do you lean more toward supporting Kerry or Bush? Bush/Cheney Kerry/Edwards Other (vol.) Unsure % % % % Among likely voters: 8/31 - 9/2/04 53 43 1 3 8/24-26/04* 46 46 - 7 8/3-5/04 44 51 1 4 7/20-22/04 46 50 1 3 Among registered voters: 8/31 - 9/2/04 50 42 1 7 8/3-5/04 43 51 1 5 7/20-22/04 45 50 1 4 * Excludes leaners ANOTHER EMAIL Dear Mr. Leibovich: I saw you on Hardball and I was astonished by your credulity toward this poll. This Time poll for reasons that professionally are hard to fathom was conducted during the Republican convention. Please note below that the Time poll also showed the greatest lead for Kerry after the convention. But it was not conducted during the convention, but 5-7 days after. The DNC Time poll was conducted 5 days after the convention ended. 5 days afterward, not during and after the terrorism alert, Kerry lead Bush by 51-44among RV's and 51-44 amongst LV's. This was also outside the margin of error. I don't recall you or anyone else in the press using that earlier poll to say that Kerry was beating Bush. You all kept to the CW tht the race was a statistical tie. For the entire spring Kerry was ahead of Bush in 90% of the polls within and without the margin of error and you all stuck to the "it's tied" CW. When it really wasn't. This present poll inexplicably was conducted during the height of the convention when Repubs were likely home watching and Dems weren't. The only poll I know of during the Democratic convention was an overnight Newsweek poll which showed Kerry 54-Bush 41. If Time or others polled during the convention then Kerry also would have had higher numbers. So it brings up a question of why are they polling during the RNC convention, the most labile time frame, but not during the DNC? Who and why do they make such a decision? Even if there is no "manipulative" reason it is still comparing apples to grapefruit and so should be played down not played up. Why are you so ready to credit Bush and the RNC with brilliance when even now there are other polls like Zogby which shows a small Bush lead, 48-46 and ARG which shows a tie. Why are you highlighting this poll which has timing and methodological problems. Why is the press so ready to roll over when Republicans call the shots. What is it, Pavlovian conditioning? Well it could be? There is an interesting possible methodological problem, which is, for some reason, they first ask to speak to a male, and if the male is not there they then ask to speak to a woman. This could skew the poll Republican as women skew Democratic. All in all you are making too much at this point of very little. But the fact that this poll and the RNC's efficacy does create a story line that biases a future outcome. -- JULES SIEGEL Apdo. 1764 77501-Cancun Q. Roo Mexico http://www.cafecancun.com/portfolio Subscribe to Newsroom-l, the email discussion list of news and issues for journalists at http://www.newsroom-l.net/ -- To unsubscribe from: Jules Siegel's Newswire, just follow this link: http://www.cafecancun.com/cgi-bin/mojo/mojo.cgi?f=u&l=newswire&[EMAIL PROTECTED]&p=5653 Click this link, or copy and paste the address into your browser. www.ctrl.org DECLARATION & DISCLAIMER ========== CTRL is a discussion & informational exchange list. Proselytizing propagandic screeds are unwelcomed. Substance—not soap-boxing—please! These are sordid matters and 'conspiracy theory'—with its many half-truths, mis- directions and outright frauds—is used politically by different groups with major and minor effects spread throughout the spectrum of time and thought. That being said, CTRLgives no endorsement to the validity of posts, and always suggests to readers; be wary of what you read. CTRL gives no credence to Holocaust denial and nazi's need not apply. Let us please be civil and as always, Caveat Lector. ======================================================================== Archives Available at: http://www.mail-archive.com/[EMAIL PROTECTED]/ <A HREF="http://www.mail-archive.com/[EMAIL PROTECTED]/">ctrl</A> ======================================================================== To subscribe to Conspiracy Theory Research List[CTRL] send email: SUBSCRIBE CTRL [to:] [EMAIL PROTECTED] To UNsubscribe to Conspiracy Theory Research List[CTRL] send email: SIGNOFF CTRL [to:] [EMAIL PROTECTED] Om
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