Date: September 29, 2006 7:06:42 PM PDT
Subject: October Surprise
Dave Lindorff of The Nation writes,
"...the Bush Administration and the Pentagon have moved up the deployment of a major "strike group" of ships, including the nuclear aircraft carrier Eisenhower as well as a cruiser, destroyer, frigate, submarine escort and supply ship, to head for the Persian Gulf, just off Iran's western coast.
"This information follows a report in the current issue of Time magazine, both online and in print, that a group of ships capable of mining harbors has received orders to be ready to sail for the Persian Gulf by October 1."
The Eisenhower Strike Group has been ordered to leave next week, at least a month ahead of schedule, after having been docked for refurbishment for several years. It will take a week to reach Iran's western coast, heavily fortified with Silkworm antiship missiles. That in itself indicates the Eisenhower group's deployment is not simply a provocation or bluff. You don't put such valuable vessels within range of enemy fire unless you're there for a reason. Bush would surely love to have the Iranians fire first, but even if Tehran doesn't take the bait, all signs are that Bush is giving himself the option of launching a military strike against Iran in October.
The phrase "October surprise" has become something of an overworn cliché in American politics, but it may be about to return to its roots. The term was widely popularized in the 1980 election pitting President Jimmy Carter against Republican challenger Ronald Reagan. The Reagan camp purportedly cut a secret deal with Iran not to release the American hostages seized at the Tehran embassy until after a Reagan win, so that Carter could not benefit from their release during his campaign.
Never in Modern American history, however, has a President pulled so brazen a stunt as to launch an unprovoked war, against a nonexistent threat, just before a major national election. In this case, polls show the president's party potentially losing control of one or both houses of Congress. Unless something happens before November 7 to change the current dynamic. To this end, 70 million Iranians are at risk of being sucked into a deadly regional war -- not to mention Afghans, Iraqis, Syrians, Lebanese, Palestinians, Israelis, Saudis, and an untold number of American soldiers.
All these people may face having their futures ruined or their lives extinguished so that a political party halfway around the world will be less likely to lose an election.
Last week, analyst and CIA veteran Ray McGovern, in discussing the Eisenhower deployment, stated flatly that "we have about seven weeks to try and stop this next war from happening."
It's now six weeks, and counting.
