-Caveat Lector-
Begin forwarded message:
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Date: January 10, 2007 8:36:47 PM PST
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Cc: [EMAIL PROTECTED], [EMAIL PROTECTED], [EMAIL PROTECTED], [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: Bush Let the Persian Cat Out of the Bag in Tonight's Address
http://blog.washingtonpost.com/earlywarning/2007/01/
the_president_giveth_and_he_ta.html?nav=rss_blog
William M. Arkin on National and Homeland Security
War With Syria and Iran = Peace With Iraq?
"Seek out and destroy."
If there's anything in the President Bush's remarks tonight that we
didn't already know or didn't anticipate him saying militarily
about Iraq, it is his evident willingness to go to war with Syria
and Iran to seek peace.
Speaking about the two countries tonight, the president said that
the United States wiill "seek out and destroy" those who are
providing material support to our enemies.
It is only a threat. But it is a far cry from the diplomatic
proposals floated just last month for making Syria and Iran part of
the solution. Can the president really be saying that we are
willing to risk war with the two countries, and even attack
elements inside them, to achieve peace in Iraq?
In his speech to the nation, the president announced that he would
send 21,500 additional U.S. soldiers and Marines to Iraq, a force
that he said will deliver the necessary punch needed to quell
sectarian violence in Baghdad and western Iraq, as well as signal
to the Iraqi government that this is really, really the last chance.
Failure in Iraq would be a "disaster" for the United States,
President Bush said, adding that success there would determine the
direction of the global war on terror.
The Iraqi government, the president said, will work with the U.S.
to regain control of Baghdad, acknowledge and put pressure on both
Sunni and Shi'a parties, intensify its effort to build a
politically neutral security force, reform its Ministry of Interior
and police force, and "plan and fund" the demobilization of
independent militias. U.S. and Iraqi forces meanwhile will continue
counter-terror operations against al Qaeda and counter-insurgency
operations against Sunni and Shi'a outliers.
On the ground, U.S. commanders will be given more flexibility and
more resources to build up "moderate" elements to take on
extremists. In Baghdad and Al Anbar province, which includes the
combat zones of Fallujah and Ramadi, the United States will
accelerate reconstruction spending to speed economic activity.
In the pesident's speech and in fact sheets, background briefings,
and Power Point presentations on the administration's new Iraq
"strategy," the tone is one of hope and promise. Everyone, the U.S.
included, is committing to the program and redoubling their
efforts. One doesn't have to be too cynical to note the definite
feel-good element to it all.
The list of things that the U.S. is going to do - some partially
borrowed from the Baker-Hamilton Iraq Study Group - sound eminently
reasonable. Take "vigorously engage Arab states." It's a good idea
to vest Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Jordan and others in stability in
Iraq. (Oh, Turkey is included in the strategy too, in the U.S.
pledge to increase its effort to counter the PKK, the Kurdish
separatist/terrorist organization that operates in a virtual
sanctuary in northern Iraq).
As for the specifics of the new troop deployment, the President is
committing five additional U.S. combat brigade teams to Baghdad.
Iraq will then add three army brigades, bringing the Baghdad total
to nine Army brigades and nine Iraqi national police brigades, as
well as local police. Two additional Marine Corps battalions (about
4,000 troops) will also augment the U.S.-dominated effort in Al
Anbar province.
The new plan and strategy will "change America's course in Iraq,"
President Bush said. With sufficient boots on the ground, the U.S.
and Iraq will be able to clear AND hold neighborhoods -- including
Shi'a neighborhoods U.S. and Iraqi forces currently do not operate.
Eighty percent of the sectarian violence in Iraq, the President
said, occurs within a 30-mile radius of Baghdad. A lot of time and
energy has gone into the command structure and operating procedures
for the augmented forces. The entirety of the success rests with
Baghdad, pure and simple.
Some of the fine print: The additional U.S. forces will only move
into theater, the White House says, over time. The Iraqis will
deploy their three additional brigades to Baghdad within a little
more than a month. The U.S. will deploy one additional brigade by
February 1st, two more by February 15th. That's the addition of
about one division-equivalent (presumably the 3rd Infantry Division
from Georgia) within about 30 days. The other two brigades will
deploy in March and April.
"There is no indefinite commitment to [the] U.S. presence in Iraq,"
a senior official said this morning, briefing the plan.
The missing element here, of course, is how Iraq will respond to
all of this: How will the shaky government and an unreliable
military and police force respond, how will moderates and normal
citizens respond, how will Sunni and Shi'a militias respond, how
will extremists, terrorists, foreign fighters and criminals respond.
And how will Syria and Iran react? President Bush implicitly
accused the two of providing sanctuary and material support for
violent elements in Iraq. There is an ominous element here: When
the President pledged to "seek out and destroy the networks
supporting our enemies in Iraq," to me, that means the [imminent]
threat of strikes on targets in those two countries.
The President giveth peace and he taketh away.
By William M. Arkin | January 10, 2007
www.ctrl.org
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