-Caveat Lector-
Begin forwarded message:
From: jim Dingeman <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Date: January 11, 2007 6:10:41 AM PST
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED], newpacifica
<[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Subject: [NewPacifica] the troop increase
Reply-To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
As people already know the troop increase that was
announced last night was merely a musical chairs play
on the deployment cycles already in motion. A brigade
of the 82nd, already in Kuwait , will deploy earlier
rather than later and so forth. It will mean 5-6
brigades by May.
What is not clear is how this will effect the
Guard/Reserves. Disrupting this cylce and the increase
in fighting that will ensue will increase the desire
to change the 24 month rule for the Guard every five
years that currently exists. Bush will have to
announce more troops by the Spring into the rotation
schema unless Congress is pressured to alter this the
way they did in Indochina between 70-75.
Today, new increases in the Army and Marine Corps
force structure will be announced. These will add
roughly 30-40,000 new troops but it takes time to
develop new units.
What seems likely is that this whole scheme could go
up in smoke if the fighting escalates( inevitable) and
the Bush plans for jitterbuging with Iran/Syria
escalate. remember. last night he made it clear in his
speech that this was they way he will go...mentioned
an additional carrier group in the region.
He only has two more years for an air strike against
Iran and what constrains him now is the cllear
perception that this would politically blow up in his
face let alone the increased mess that will happen in
Iraq.
And also, McCain wanted 50,000 more troops,
kagan/Keane 35.000 and others have pushed for 100,000
( William Kristol). These might have been scenarios
will be pushed immediately into the debate as it gets
crazier and nastier.
Jim
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