-Caveat Lector-
Begin forwarded message:
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Date: March 4, 2007 9:08:46 PM PST
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Cc: [EMAIL PROTECTED], [EMAIL PROTECTED], [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: Renegade Scientist Claims SUN Causing Global Warming
Mars Melt Hints at Solar, Not Human, Cause for Warming, Scientist Says
Kate Ravilious
for National Geographic News
February 28, 2007
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2007/02/070228-mars-
warming.html
Simultaneous warming on Earth and Mars suggests that our planet's
recent climate changes have a natural—and not a human- induced—
cause, according to one scientist's controversial theory.
Earth is currently experiencing rapid warming, which the vast
majority of climate scientists says is due to humans pumping huge
amounts of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. (Get an overview:
"Global Warming Fast Facts".)
RELATED
Photo Gallery: Global Warming
New Mars Pictures Show Signs of Watery "Aquifers" (February 16, 2007)
Climate Change Predictions Not Exaggerated, Analysis Says (February
1, 2007)
Mars, too, appears to be enjoying more mild and balmy temperatures.
In 2005 data from NASA's Mars Global Surveyor and Odyssey missions
revealed that the carbon dioxide "ice caps" near Mars's south pole
had been diminishing for three summers in a row.
Habibullo Abdussamatov, head of the St. Petersburg's Pulkovo
Astronomical Observatory in Russia, says the Mars data is evidence
that the current global warming on Earth is being caused by changes
in the sun.
"The long-term increase in solar irradiance is heating both Earth
and Mars," he said.
Solar Cycles
Abdussamatov believes that changes in the sun's heat output can
account for almost all the climate changes we see on both planets.
Mars and Earth, for instance, have experienced periodic ice ages
throughout their histories.
"Man-made greenhouse warming has made a small contribution to the
warming seen on Earth in recent years, but it cannot compete with
the increase in solar irradiance," Abdussamatov said.
By studying fluctuations in the warmth of the sun, Abdussamatov
believes he can see a pattern that fits with the ups and downs in
climate we see on Earth and Mars.
Abdussamatov's work, however, has not been well received by other
climate scientists.
"His views are completely at odds with the mainstream scientific
opinion," said Colin Wilson, a planetary physicist at England's
Oxford University.
"And they contradict the extensive evidence presented in the most
recent IPCC [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change]
report." (Related: "Global Warming 'Very Likely' Caused by Humans,
World Climate Experts Say" [February 2, 2007].)
Amato Evan, a climate scientist at the University of Wisconsin,
Madison, added that "the idea just isn't supported by the theory or
by the observations."
Planets' Wobbles
The conventional theory is that climate changes on Mars can be
explained primarily by small alterations in the planet's orbit and
tilt, not by changes in the sun.
"Wobbles in the orbit of Mars are the main cause of its climate
change in the current era," Oxford's Wilson explained. (Related:
"Don't Blame Sun for Global Warming, Study Says" [September 13,
2006].)
All planets experience a few wobbles as they make their journey
around the sun. Earth's wobbles are known as Milankovitch cycles
and occur on time scales of between 20,000 and 100,000 years.
These fluctuations change the tilt of Earth's axis and its distance
from the sun and are thought to be responsible for the waxing and
waning of ice ages on Earth.
Mars and Earth wobble in different ways, and most scientists think
it is pure coincidence that both planets are between ice ages right
now.
"Mars has no [large] moon, which makes its wobbles much larger, and
hence the swings in climate are greater too," Wilson said.
No Greenhouse
Perhaps the biggest stumbling block in Abdussamatov's theory is his
dismissal of the greenhouse effect, in which atmospheric gases such
as carbon dioxide help keep heat trapped near the planet's surface.
He claims that carbon dioxide has only a small influence on Earth's
climate and virtually no influence on Mars.
But "without the greenhouse effect there would be very little, if
any, life on Earth, since our planet would pretty much be a big
ball of ice," said Evan, of the University of Wisconsin.
Most scientists now fear that the massive amount of carbon dioxide
humans are pumping into the air will lead to a catastrophic rise in
Earth's temperatures, dramatically raising sea levels as glaciers
melt and leading to extreme weather worldwide.
Abdussamatov remains contrarian, however, suggesting that the sun
holds something quite different in store.
"The solar irradiance began to drop in the 1990s, and a minimum
will be reached by approximately 2040," Abdussamatov said. "It will
cause a steep cooling of the climate on Earth in 15 to 20 years."
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