-Caveat Lector-
Begin forwarded message:
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Date: May 22, 2007 4:21:28 PM PDT
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Cc: [EMAIL PROTECTED], [EMAIL PROTECTED], [EMAIL PROTECTED],
[EMAIL PROTECTED], [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: "AL QAEDA Is Behind Congressional Democrats' 'Revolt'
Against Bush on Iraq"
Iran's ["]secret plan["] for
summer offensive
to force US out of Iraq
Simon Tisdall
Guardian (UK), May 22, 2007
http://www.guardian.co.uk/Iraq/Story/0,,2085192,00.html
Iran is secretly forging ties with al-Qaida elements and Sunni Arab
militias in Iraq in preparation for a summer showdown with
coalition forces intended to tip a wavering US Congress into voting
for full military withdrawal, US officials say.
"Iran is fighting a proxy war in Iraq and it's a very dangerous
course for them to be following. They are already committing daily
acts of war against US and British forces," a senior US official in
Baghdad warned. "They [Iran] are behind a lot of high-profile
attacks meant to undermine US will and British will, such as the
rocket attacks on Basra palace and the Green Zone [in Baghdad]. The
attacks are directed by the Revolutionary Guard who are connected
right to the top [of the Iranian government]."
The official said US commanders were bracing for a nationwide,
Iranian-orchestrated summer offensive, linking al-Qaida and Sunni
insurgents to Tehran's Shia militia allies, that Iran hoped would
trigger a political mutiny in Washington and a US retreat. "We
expect that al-Qaida and Iran will both attempt to increase the
propaganda and increase the violence prior to Petraeus's report in
September [when the US commander General David Petraeus will report
to Congress on President George Bush's controversial, six-month
security "surge" of 30,000 troop reinforcements]," the official said.
"Certainly it [the violence] is going to pick up from their side.
There is significant latent capability in Iraq, especially Iranian-
sponsored capability. They can turn it up whenever they want. You
can see that from the pre-positioning that's been going on and the
huge stockpiles of Iranian weapons that we've turned up in the last
couple of months. The relationships between Iran and groups like al-
Qaida are very fluid," the official said.
"It often comes down to individuals, and people constantly move
around. For instance, the Sunni Arab so-called resistance groups
use Salafi jihadist ideology for their own purposes. But the whole
Iran- al-Qaida linkup is very sinister."
Iran has maintained close links to Iraq's Shia political parties
and militias but has previously eschewed collaboration with al-
Qaida and Sunni insurgents.
US officials now say they have firm evidence that Tehran has
switched tack as it senses a chance of victory in Iraq. In a
parallel development, they say they also have proof that Iran has
reversed its previous policy in Afghanistan and is now supporting
and supplying the Taliban's campaign against US, British and other
Nato forces.
Tehran's strategy to discredit the US surge and foment a decisive
congressional revolt against Mr Bush is national in scope and not
confined to the Shia south, its traditional sphere of influence,
the senior official in Baghdad said. It included stepped-up
coordination with Shia militias such as Moqtada al-Sadr's Jaish al-
Mahdi as well as Syrian-backed Sunni Arab groups and al-Qaida in
Mesopotamia, he added. Iran was also expanding contacts across the
board with paramilitary forces and political groups, including
Kurdish parties such as the PUK, a US ally.
"Their strategy takes into account all these various parties. Iran
is playing all these different factions to maximise its future
control and maximise US and British difficulties. Their co-
conspirator is Syria which is allowing the takfirists
[fundamentalist Salafi jihadis] to come across the border," the
official said.
Any US decision to retaliate against Iran on its own territory
could be taken only at the highest political level in Washington,
the official said.
But he indicated that American patience was wearing thin.
Warning that the US was "absolutely determined" to hit back hard
wherever it was challenged by Iranian proxies or agents inside
Iraq, he cited the case of five alleged members of the
Revolutionary Guard's al-Quds force detained in Irbil in January.
Despite strenuous protests from Tehran, which claims the men are
diplomats, they have still not been released.
"Tehran is behaving like a racecourse gambler. They're betting on
all the horses in the race, even on people they fundamentally don't
trust," a senior administration official in Washington said. "They
don't know what the outcome will be in Iraq. So they're hedging
their bets."
The administration official also claimed that notwithstanding
recent US and British overtures, Syria was still collaborating
closely with Iran's strategy in Iraq.
"80% to 90%" of the foreign jihadis entering Iraq were doing so
from Syrian territory, he said.
Despite recent diplomatic contacts, and an agreement to hold
bilateral talks at ambassadorial level in Baghdad next week, US
officials say there has been no let-up in hostile Iranian
activities, including continuing support for violence, weapons
smuggling and training.
"Iran is perpetuating the cycle of sectarian violence through
support for extra-judicial killing and murder cells. They bring
Iraqi militia members and insurgent groups into Iran for training
and then help infiltrate them back into the country. We have plenty
of evidence from a variety of sources. There's no argument about
that. That's just a fact," the senior official in Baghdad said.
In trying to force an American retreat, Iran's hardline leadership
also hoped to bring about a humiliating political and diplomatic
defeat for the US that would reduce Washington's regional influence
while increasing Tehran's own.
But if Iran succeeded in "prematurely" driving US and British
forces out of Iraq, the likely result would be a "colossal
humanitarian disaster" and possible regional war drawing in the
Sunni Arab Gulf states, Syria and Turkey, he said.
Despite such concerns, or because of them, the US welcomed the
chance to talk to Iran, the senior administration official said.
"Our agenda starts with force protection in Iraq," he said. But
there were many other Iraq-related issues to be discussed. Recent
pressure had shown that Iran's behaviour could be modified, the
official claimed: "Last winter they were literally getting away
with murder."
But tougher action by security forces in Iraq against Iranian
agents and networks, the dispatch of an additional aircraft carrier
group to the Gulf and UN security council resolutions imposing
sanctions had given Tehran pause, he said.
Washington analysts and commentators predict that Gen Petraeus's
report to the White House and Congress in early September will be a
pivotal moment in the history of the four-and-a-half-year war - and
a decision to begin a troop drawdown or continue with the surge
policy will hinge on the outcome. Most Democrats and many
Republicans in Congress believe Iraq is in the grip of a civil war
and that there is little that a continuing military presence can
achieve. "Political will has already failed. It's over," a former
Bush administration official said.
A senior adviser to Gen Petraeus reported this month that the surge
had reduced violence, especially sectarian killings, in the Baghdad
area and Sunni-dominated Anbar province. But the adviser admitted
that much of the trouble had merely moved elsewhere, "resulting in
spikes of activity in Diyala [to the north] and some areas to the
south of the capital". "Overall violence is at about the same level
[as when the surge began in February]."
Iranian officials flatly deny US and British allegations of
involvement in internal violence in Iraq or in attacks on coalition
forces. Interviewed in Tehran recently, Mohammad Reza Bagheri,
deputy foreign minister for Arab affairs with primary
responsibility for Iran's policy in Iraq, said: "We believe it
would be to the benefit of both the occupiers and the Iraqi people
that they [the coalition forces] withdraw immediately."
Guardian Unlimited © Guardian News and Media Limited 2007
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