-Caveat Lector-


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From: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Date: June 15, 2007 7:12:14 PM PDT
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
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Subject: Summer of Hassam: Bush Triggers Domino Effect in the Middle East

IAEA chief in Iran attack warning

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/6753017.stm

The head of the UN's nuclear watchdog has warned that resorting to military action against Iran over its nuclear programme would be "an act of madness." Mohammed ElBaradei also said Iran was close to reaching large-scale levels of uranium enrichment without providing assurances its programme was peaceful.

Enriched uranium can be used to fuel nuclear reactors but can also be made into nuclear weapons material.

The West has accused Iran of seeking nuclear weapons, a charge Iran denies.

Mr ElBaradei, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) , said the stalemate between Iran and the UN Security Council was leading to confrontation.

He said any use of force to shut down Iran's nuclear programme "would be catastrophic, it would be an act of madness -- and it would not solve the issue".



Israel readying public for 'all-out war'

By YAAKOV KATZ
Jerusalem Post, May 31, 2007
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite? cid=1180527968263&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull With Iran racing toward nuclear power and IDF preparations for the possibility of a conflict with Syria and Hizbullah in high gear, the Home Front Command plans to launch a publicity campaign to prepare the public for war.

Within a few weeks it intends to inform the public about what people need to do in the event of attack.

The campaign was not connected to a specific event or threat but was meant to brace the public for war in general, senior IDF officers said.

"Our job is to prepare for an all-out war," Col. Hilik Sofer, head of the Home Front Command Population Division, told The Jerusalem Post Wednesday. "We prepare for a wide range of possibilities since it doesn't make any difference [which Arab country] the threat comes from."

Several weeks ago, the Home Front Command distributed pamphlets in Netivot and Ashkelon explaining how to behave during a Kassam attack. Both cities are within 15 kilometers of the Gaza Strip.

The IDF has deployed early warning systems outside Netivot and Ashkelon. They have not been activated, pending government approval.

Next week, Sofer will meet with heads of government offices and local councils to discuss ways to improve service to the public at a time of emergency.

"We know that the Palestinians have Kassams that can reach 12- kilometer distances and even farther," Sofer said. "And even though Kassams have yet to fall there, we'd best be prepared."

In March, the Home Front Command, the Israel Police, Magen David Adom, the Fire and Rescue Services and other emergency services held a two-day exercise throughout the country that dealt with extreme scenarios, including mega-terrorist attacks and nonconventional missile attacks.

The drill was the country's largest ever and implemented lessons from the Second Lebanon War last summer.

------------------

War, Bloody Civil War

Benjamin R. Barber

Fri Jun 15, 3:04 PM ET

http://news.yahoo.com/s/huffpost/20070615/cm_huffpost/052367

Push aside just for a moment the stories about Paris Hilton and the endless Presidential campaign and the sub-prime mortgage crisis, and behold to the East the grim specter of civil war in the Arab world.

The fiercest wars are civil wars. More Americans were killed in our civil war than in any other. The Russian civil war that accompanied the Communist Revolution was bitter and destructive, corrupting Bolshevism and helping establish Stalinism. More recently, Rwanda and Yugoslavia imploded around horrendous, sometimes genocidal conflicts that were nightmarish parodies of civil wars. And now, as a consequence of American policies rationalized by democratic idealism but propelled by cynical lies and a good deal of just plain stupidity, the Middle East is descending into that worst of all man-made catastrophes. In Iraq, Gaza, in Syria, and in Lebanon too, the specter of civil war looms, threatening peoples far beyond Iraq.

Hamas vs. Fatah, Hezbollah vs.the Government of Lebanon, Shiite vs. Sunni -- blood feuds driven by what the ancient Greeks called The Furies -- those vengeful Gods of the underworld who remember everything and forgive nothing. You can come between nations at war, separate states in conflict, but there is no way to pull apart cousins and brothers set on murdering one another.

America might as well go home because there is no longer anything it can do to arrest the free fall that is the Iraqi civil war. They are already slaughtering one another without conscience or consciousness, brother for brother, mosque for mosque, tribe for tribe, imam for imam. And are likely to continue until the Furies are sated and burrow back into their dark blood holes at a time of their own choosing.

Who then will pacify Gaza? Who can stymie Hezbollah? Who should step between Sunni and Shiite? It is not just Israel, but Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Turkey that are now at risk. Even countries like Syria and Iran who think they will find a way to profit from these wars are at risk. Does President Ahmadinejad really think, once the Americans are gone, that the Sunni militias and their al Qaeda allies of convenience will swoon and vanish in the face of Iranian meddling? Can Israel benefit from the mayhem at its doorstep?

And how exactly are neighboring states supposed to respond? Do something and you are the new Americans, villains because you intervene, even if in the name of neutrality and justice. Do nothing and war rages on, ever more dangerous to your own internal security and stability.

These, then, are the fruits of Bush's bungling: the entire Middle East consumed by civil war, the whole Arab world at risk. And worst of all, for the United States, finally an environment cultivated by the Furies in which terrorism can truly flourish - stark and brutish anarchy.

-----------------

Arab Media Reports Syria Making Preparations for War with Israel

by Hana Levi Julian
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/122765

(IsraelNN.com) A Qatari newspaper, Al Watan, reported Friday that Syria is making concrete preparations for war with Israel, saying that the Syrian government has removed the Government and State Archives from the Damascus area. According to the paper, this move indicates preparations for war.

Syrian parliament member Muhammad Habash confirmed on Al-Jazeera Arabic world news satellite TV last week that Syria is indeed engaged in active preparations for a war with Israel. The conflict, said the Syrian MP, is expected to break out during the summer months.

Officials close to Prime Minister Ehud Olmert reported Sunday that their efforts to begin negotiations with Syrian President Bashar Al- Assad have gone unanswered. They also said that Mr. Assad’s failure to reply signaled that his claims of wanting peace were not honest and were meant to improve his own status in the international community.

Last week, the head of Mossad, Israel’s international intelligence agency, Meir Dagan, warned that Syrian President Assad was putting up a smoke screen by claiming he wants to open peace talks with the Jewish State.

IDF Chief of Staff Lt-Gen. Gabi Ashkenazi has also raised the issue numerous times. “The IDF is preparing for an escalation on both the Palestinian and the northern fronts,” he said bluntly during a speech to the IDF Officers Training School earlier in the year.

The IDF held a large-scale exercise ten days ago simulating a Syrian invasion to Israel’s north. Infantry units, tank divisions and the Air Force took part in the exercise, which took place at the Shizafon IDF installation, in the southern Negev.

Asked about the exercise by Army Radio, Defense Minister Amir Peretz said that the IDF was indeed preparing for the possibility of war with Syria, but said this does not mean that Israel would initiate such a war. "Our preparedness is not an indication of any decision by either us or Syria to go to war -- these are purely defensive measures," he said.

---------------

All-out civil war in Palestine

http://news.monstersandcritics.com/middleeast/features/ article_1318135.php/All-out_civil_war_in_Palestine
By Claude Salhani Jun 15, 2007, 15:10 GMT


WASHINGTON, DC, United States (UPI) -- The violent confrontation between warring Palestinian factions unfolding in Gaza is far more than a civil war. It`s a coup d`etat accompanied by a civil war. And it`s also the most serious, most nefarious chapter in the short history of the Palestinian Authority.

The heavy fighting pitting forces loyal to Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, aka Abu Mazen, against members of the Islamist Hamas movement, have not only revived fears of an intra-Palestinian civil war, but they have shattered the dream of the Palestinians gaining independence and ruling themselves as a sovereign nation at any time in the foreseeable future.

The defeat of Abu Mazen`s Fatah forces in the Gaza Strip represents much more than a defeat for the mainstream Palestinian political/ military movement. The mega-fiasco in Gaza is also a defeat of U.S. foreign policy in the region; it is the culmination of a policy of inaction on the part of the Bush administration. It represents a failure of Israel`s policy vis-a-vis the Palestinian territories. After nearly 40 years of occupation Israel finds itself facing a far more hostile environment in Gaza than when they entered the territory in 1967. And possibly far more consequential in the Arab world, the resumption of fighting amongst Palestinians represents a defeat -- and loss of prestige -- for Saudi Arabia`s King Abdallah who tried to broker a cease-fire among the warring factions.

'In light of the dramatic escalation of violence in Gaza and President Abbas` move to disband the Palestinian government, the U.S. needs to urgently rethink its failed policy in the Middle East,' said Daniel Levy, a senior fellow and director of the Prospects for Peace Initiative at The Century Foundation.


http://www.reuters.com/article/reutersEdge/idUSN1537810220070615
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. response to the Hamas takeover of Gaza may be to lavish support on the West Bank while trying to isolate Hamas in the coastal strip, a strategy that could further radicalize the Islamist movement, analysts said on Friday.

Hamas' military victory demonstrated the failure of the U.S. effort to strengthen Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas of Fatah in his power struggle with Hamas, which the European Union, the United States and Israel view as a terrorist group.

It leaves the United States with fewer options to pursue comprehensive peace between the Israelis and the Palestinians and makes the idea of a two-state solution even more remote because Palestinians are now split between a Fatah-led West Bank and a Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip.

------------------------

Assassination brings Lebanon closer to civil war

14 June 2007

http://www.freemarketnews.com/WorldNews.asp?nid=43762

A sign of the times. I arrive home in Beirut from Paris, am just 20 minutes into my apartment when the windows of my office blow open with a single "crack". A tremendous explosion rolls across the Lebanese capital. Out of the house, 500 metres running down the Corniche and smoke is billowing from the Staff Sporting Club. Soldiers shouting, cops trying to keep the first reporters away, but I skulk through the ruins next to the sea with an old Lebanese photographer friend and we find ourselves in the wreckage of a tourist ghost train, all mangled tracks and carriages. "Enter at Your Risk," it says over the tunnel and on the other side is a burning car containing the corpse of Lebanon's latest assassination victim.

And not just "any" victim. The man in the smouldering vehicle is Walid Eido, a Beirut member of parliament, a former judge, much revered - anti-Syrian, of course, otherwise he would not be dead, would he? - and a supporter of Saad Hariri, son of the murdered former prime minister Rafik who was killed in an even bigger explosion on 14 February 2005, a thousand metres on the other side of my apartment. What is it about Beirut that turns this beautiful, sun-blessed city into a crematorium so quickly?

Eido was killed with his son Khaled and I saw their corpses, roasted, covered in cheap plastic bags so that Lebanon's greedy photographers could not use their last mortal remains on page one. Walid Eido's two bodyguards died with them. The "Sporting" was a hangout for Hariri's men but, as usual, this assassination must have been well planned, well co-ordinated, paid for way up front.

And what a knife into the body politic of the Hariri camp. Hariri's majority party is the reason why the government of Fouad Siniora survives, supported - heaven help them - by the Americans, abandoned by the Hizbollah who persuaded six Shia ministers to resign from the cabinet last year. Could there have been a more devastating target for the government's enemies last night?

Walid Eido represented a constituency in Beirut's tough Sunni Muslim Basta area, a populist politician who had constantly condemned Syria's "interference" and had more recently turned on Hizbollah's political action against the government. When the pro- Syrian militia group, who withstood Israel's devastating bombardment of Lebanon last summer, pitched their tents across the centre of Beirut in an attempt to bring down Siniora's government, it was Eido who referred to this as "occupation".

And what will be the reaction to this latest and most outrageous of murders? In the aftermath of the bombing, amid the ghost-train wreckage and the overturned dodgems and the ash-covered swimming pools, there was only shock. But each crisis is worse than the previous. Each assassination - of a communist politician, of a journalist, of a Christian MP - each outbreak of guerrilla violence - 61 soldiers have now been killed fighting Fatah al-Islam in the north - quick-marches Lebanon faster towards the abyss. Over the past few months, the bombs have gone off close to midnight, an industrial estate here, a Christian or Muslim shopping mall there, always too late to cause mass casualties. And that is the point, of course, to threaten rather than kill. But what if the next bomb goes off at midday rather than midnight? How many casualties then? This is the nightmare with which Lebanese live. If, in working- class Basta tonight, the crowds can be contained (by a largely Shia Muslim army), what of tomorrow?

It is to the enormous esteem of the Lebanese that they have refused to embark on another civil war despite every provocation. But the provocations have not run out. It can get much, much worse. But -- and I tire of repeating this in my reports -- not a single Lebanese assassination has been solved since 1976.





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