Iraqis warn of consequences of U.S. troop drawdown
By Waleed Ibrahim
Reuters
BAGHDAD
http://www.abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory?id=3358005
After the New York Times said debate was growing inside the White House over a gradual drawdown, Iraqi officials warned that an early withdrawal of U.S. troops could tip the country into all-out civil war .
The comments followed a wave of bombings and shootings across Iraq over the weekend that killed 250 people. The carnage prompted Sunni Vice President Tareq al-Hashemi to say Iraqis had the right to take up arms to defend themselves.
Citing administration officials and consultants, the New York Times said these officials feared the last pillars of political support among Senate Republicans for U.S. President George W. Bush's Iraq strategy were "collapsing around them."
It said debate was intensifying over whether Bush should try to prevent more Republican defections by announcing intentions for a gradual withdrawal of troops from high-casualty areas.
More than 330 American soldiers were killed in Iraq during the April-June quarter, making it the deadliest three months for U.S. troops since the March 2003 U.S.-led invasion. Overall, 3,606 U.S. soldiers and tens of thousands of Iraqis have died.
Iraqi officials warned of a security vacuum if some of the 157,000 American troops in Iraq withdrew prematurely, saying the country's own security forces were not ready.
"We in Iraq believe, not just the government, but all political parties, that the presence of these forces is necessary to prevent increasing violence and to stop the country sliding into civil war," Sadiq al-Rikabi, a senior adviser to Shi'ite Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, told Reuters.
Adnan al-Dulaimi, head of a Sunni Arab party, said those pushing for a pullout did not understand how fragile Iraq was.
"Any withdrawal of American forces, whether it's partial or total, would lead to major chaos," Dulaimi said.
Foreign Minister Hoshiyar Zebari told Reuters a week ago that Iraq would disintegrate if U.S. troops left too soon.
The mounting pressure on Bush from within his Republican Party comes only weeks after the last of the 28,000 troop reinforcements he sent to Iraq for a major security crackdown arrived in the country.
The push, launched in February, aims to curb violence and win time for Maliki to bring disaffected minority Sunni Arabs more into the political process.
POLITICAL DEADLOCK
But there is skepticism Iraq's leaders will meet political benchmarks aimed at fostering reconciliation. Only one of several key laws has been submitted to parliament.
Bush and his aides thought they could wait to begin talks about any change in strategy until September 15, when the U.S. commander in Iraq and the U.S. ambassador must present a report on Iraq's security and political progress, the Times said.
But these aides acknowledged it appeared forces were converging against Bush just as the Senate prepares this week to begin what promises to be a contentious debate on the war's future and financing, the newspaper said.
The administration must deliver an interim report to Congress by July 15 on Iraq. The report has gained significance with the increasing number of both Republican and Democratic lawmakers calling for a change in Bush's strategy in Iraq.
Four more Republican senators have recently declared they can no longer support the strategy.
As a result, the newspaper said, aides are telling Bush that if he wants to forestall more defections, it would be wiser to announce plans for a far more narrowly defined mission for U.S. troops that would allow for a staged pullback.
September 15 looks like an end point for the debate, not a starting point, one administration official told the Times.
"Lots of people are concluding that the president has got to get out ahead of this train," the official said.
(Additional reporting by Philip Barbara in Washington and Mussab Al-Khairalla in Baghdad))
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No-Confidence Vote Looms Over Iraq's PM
"If there is no strategy, people become hopeless. You can live without petrol, without electricity, but you can't live without hope." --Faliy al Fayadh
On July 15, [senior Iraqi leaders] plan to ask for a no-confidence vote in the Iraqi parliament as the first step in [toppling] the government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki.
Even those closest to the Iraqi prime minister, from his own party, admit the political situation is desperate.
"I feel there is no strategy, so the people become hopeless," said Faliy al Fayadh, an MP from the Dawa Party. "You can live without petrol, without electricity, but you can't live without hope."
Iraq's prime minister is facing his most serious challenge yet. The no-confidence vote will be requested by the largest block of Sunni politicians, who are part of a broad political alliance called the Iraq Project. What they want is a new government run by ministers who are appointed for their expertise, not their party loyalty.
The Iraq Project is known to the highest levels of the U.S. government. CBS News has learned it was discussed in detail on Vice President Dick Cheney's most recent visit to Baghdad, when he met with the Iraqi Vice President Tariq al-Hashimi.
Al-Maliki has announced his own alliance to try to save his government, but even his vice president says that's little more than a short-term fix.
"Cosmetic change is not going to serve the interests of Iraqis is not going to stabilize, is not going to improve security , what we need is much bigger that that," said al Hashimi, the leader of the Iraqi Islamic Party.
Leaders of the Iraq Project claim they have the necessary votes to force al-Maliki to resign, but that has yet to be tested in parliament. For now, the U.S. is still standing by the Iraqi leader – publicly at least.
