-Caveat Lector-
Begin forwarded message:
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Date: July 15, 2007 3:53:29 PM PDT
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Cc: [EMAIL PROTECTED], [EMAIL PROTECTED], [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: Remember Afghanistan? That's Where Osama Is, George.
Failure in Afghanistan risks rise in terror, say generals
Military chiefs warn No.10 that defeat could lead to change of
regime in Pakistan
Nicholas Watt and Ned Temko
The Observer, July 15, 2007
http://observer.guardian.co.uk/world/story/0,,2126817,00.html
Britain's most senior generals have issued a blunt warning to
Downing Street that the military campaign in Afghanistan is facing
a catastrophic failure, a development that could lead to an
Islamist government seizing power in neighbouring Pakistan.
Amid fears that London and Washington are taking their eye off
Afghanistan as they grapple with Iraq, the generals have told
Number 10 that the collapse of the government in Afghanistan,
headed by Hamid Karzai, would present a grave threat to the
security of Britain.
Lord Inge, the former chief of the defence staff, highlighted their
fears in public last week when he warned of a 'strategic failure'
in Afghanistan. The Observer understands that Inge was speaking
with the direct authority of the general staff when he made an
intervention in a House of Lords debate.
'The situation in Afghanistan is much worse than many people
recognise,' Inge told peers. 'We need to face up to that issue, the
consequence of strategic failure in Afghanistan and what that would
mean for Nato... We need to recognise that the situation - in my
view, and I have recently been in Afghanistan - is much, much more
serious than people want to recognise.'
Inge's remarks reflect the fears of serving generals that the
government is so overwhelmed by Iraq that it is in danger of losing
sight of the threat of failure in Afghanistan. One source, who is
familiar with the fears of the senior officers, told The Observer:
'If you talk privately to the generals they are very very worried.
You heard it in Inge's speech. Inge said we are failing and
remember Inge speaks for the generals.'
Inge made a point in the Lords of endorsing a speech by Lord
Ashdown, the former Liberal Democrat leader, who painted a bleak
picture during the debate. Ashdown told The Observer that
Afghanistan presented a graver threat than Iraq.
'The consequences of failure in Afghanistan are far greater than in
Iraq,' he said. 'If we fail in Afghanistan then Pakistan goes down.
The security problems for Britain would be massively multiplied. I
think you could not then stop a widening regional war that would
start off in warlordism but it would become essentially a war in
the end between Sunni and Shia right across the Middle East.'
'Mao Zedong used to refer to the First and Second World Wars as the
European civil wars. You can have a regional civil war. That is
what you might begin to see. It will be catastrophic for Nato. The
damage done to Nato in Afghanistan would be as great as the damage
done to the UN in Bosnia. That could have a severe impact on the
Atlantic relationship and maybe even damage the American security
guarantee for Europe.'
Ashdown said two mistakes were being made: a lack of a co-ordinated
military command because of the multinational 'hearts and minds'
Nato campaign and the US-led Operation Enduring Freedom offensive
campaign against the Taliban. There was also insufficient civic
support on, for example, providing clean water.
Ashdown warned: 'Unless we put this right, unless we have a unitary
system of command, we are going to lose. The battle for this is the
battle of public opinion. The polls are slipping. Once they go on
the slide it is almost impossible to win it back. You can only do
it with the support of the local population.
'There is a very short shelf life for an occupation force. Once
that begins to shift against you it is very very difficult to turn
it round.'
The warnings from Ashdown and the generals on Afghanistan will be
echoed in a report this week by the all-party Commons defence
select committee. MPs will say that the combination of civilian
casualties, war damage and US-led efforts to eradicate lucrative
poppy crops risk turning ordinary people towards the Taliban.
Stepped-up reconstruction efforts are essential, the MPs will
suggest, in order to ensure local residents understand the longer-
term aim of the British-led Nato mission - a point echoed, during
the committee hearings on Afghanistan earlier this year, by
returning British commander General David Richards.
The report is also expected to criticise some Nato members for
failing to provide sufficient troops or other support for the
Afghan mission.
Adam Holloway, a Tory member of the committee who is a former
Grenadier Guards officer, said: 'We are getting to the point where
it will be irretrievable. That's where we are now. We are in danger
of a second strategic failure [after Iraq], which we cannot afford.'
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