-Caveat Lector-


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From: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Date: July 18, 2007 1:17:19 PM PDT
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Cc: [EMAIL PROTECTED], [EMAIL PROTECTED], [EMAIL PROTECTED], [EMAIL PROTECTED] Subject: Pentagon Disputes Bush's Claim Pulling Out of Iraq Would Cause Catastrophe

'US withdrawal not apocalyptic'

July 18, 2007
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/ 0,25197,22093524-2703,00.html
WASHINGTON:

Recent "war games" exercises conducted for the US military conclude that if American combat forces withdraw from Iraq in the near future, the result would not be "apocalyptic," but that the country would divide into three separate nations.

The military exercises decided that the most likely scenario would see the Shias drive the Sunnis out of ethnically mixed areas to the western Anbar province while southern Iraq would erupt in civil war between Shia groups. The Kurdish north would solidify its borders and invite in a US troop presence.

The "war games" were conducted for the US military by retired Marine colonel Gary Anderson, The Washington Post reported.

"I honestly don't think it will be apocalyptic," Colonel Anderson told the paper, but "it will be ugly".

The report dilutes recent predictions by US President George W. Bush who, in making the case for a continued troop presence, has argued that al-Qa'ida or Iran would take over Iraq if US forces withdrew.

The US military, aware of this political battlefield, had been quietly exploring scenarios of a reduced troop presence, the paper said.

Dozens of Iraq-related war games have been conducted for the military, many premised on a US combat pullout by a set date -- leaving only advisers and support units -- and concluded that partition would result. The games also predicted that Iran would intervene in a Shia civil war and become bogged down in southern Iraq, the report said.

An extended Iranian presence in Iraq could lead to increased intervention by Saudi Arabia and other Sunni states on the other side -- perhaps leading Tehran to stimulate insurgency among the Shias in Saudi Arabia.

Agencies




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