-Caveat Lector-
Begin forwarded message:
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Date: July 18, 2007 1:17:19 PM PDT
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Cc: [EMAIL PROTECTED], [EMAIL PROTECTED], [EMAIL PROTECTED],
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: Pentagon Disputes Bush's Claim Pulling Out of Iraq Would
Cause Catastrophe
'US withdrawal not apocalyptic'
July 18, 2007
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/
0,25197,22093524-2703,00.html
WASHINGTON:
Recent "war games" exercises conducted for the US military conclude
that if American combat forces withdraw from Iraq in the near
future, the result would not be "apocalyptic," but that the country
would divide into three separate nations.
The military exercises decided that the most likely scenario would
see the Shias drive the Sunnis out of ethnically mixed areas to the
western Anbar province while southern Iraq would erupt in civil war
between Shia groups. The Kurdish north would solidify its borders
and invite in a US troop presence.
The "war games" were conducted for the US military by retired
Marine colonel Gary Anderson, The Washington Post reported.
"I honestly don't think it will be apocalyptic," Colonel Anderson
told the paper, but "it will be ugly".
The report dilutes recent predictions by US President George W.
Bush who, in making the case for a continued troop presence, has
argued that al-Qa'ida or Iran would take over Iraq if US forces
withdrew.
The US military, aware of this political battlefield, had been
quietly exploring scenarios of a reduced troop presence, the paper
said.
Dozens of Iraq-related war games have been conducted for the
military, many premised on a US combat pullout by a set date --
leaving only advisers and support units -- and concluded that
partition would result. The games also predicted that Iran would
intervene in a Shia civil war and become bogged down in southern
Iraq, the report said.
An extended Iranian presence in Iraq could lead to increased
intervention by Saudi Arabia and other Sunni states on the other
side -- perhaps leading Tehran to stimulate insurgency among the
Shias in Saudi Arabia.
Agencies
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