-Caveat Lector-
Begin forwarded message:
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Date: August 31, 2007 2:00:24 AM PDT
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Cc: [EMAIL PROTECTED], [EMAIL PROTECTED], [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: Study confirms human-human spread of bird flu
Something tells me it really won't matter whether you have it OR
NOT ... If "The Authorities" SAY they SUSPECT you MAY have it,
that's all it will take to make you --and your entire community--
"fair game," mobilizing the machinery of the police state against
you. How useful, "quarantine"!
Study confirms human-human spread of bird flu
Wed. Aug. 29 2007 10:43 AM ET
CTV.ca News Staff
http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20070829/
bird_flu_070829/20070829?hub=Health
A new analysis has confirmed that bird flu spread from person to
person in Indonesia in April, U.S. researchers report, in what
appears to be a disturbing development for the infectious disease.
Health officials around the world have been closely monitoring the
H5N1 strain of avian influenza spreading among birds from Asia to
Africa to Europe.
So far, the strain rarely infects humans. But infectious disease
experts are worried if it evolves so that it can spread easily from
person to person, it may be the source of the next influenza
pandemic, for which the globe is thought to be well overdue.
Since 2003, H5N1 has infected 322 people and killed 195. Most have
been infected directly by birds. But a few clusters of cases have
been noted for which no other explanation can be found except
person-to-person transmission.
Biostatistician Ira Longini and colleagues at the Fred Hutchinson
Cancer Research Center in Seattle looked at two such recent
clusters -- one in which eight family members died in Sumatra in
2006, and another in Turkey, in which eight people were infected
and four died.
Experts were almost certain the Sumatra cases were human-to-human
transmission, but were eager to see more proof. Longini's team
claims they have found that proof, reporting in the journal
Emerging Infectious Diseases.
Using a computerized disease-transmission model that took into
account the number of infected cases, the number of people
potentially exposed, the viral-incubation period and other
parameters, the researchers produced the first statistical
confirmation of humans contracting the disease from each other.
How the cluster likely spread
The cluster likely began with a 37-year-old woman, who had been
exposed to dead poultry and chicken feces, the presumed source of
infection. She then probably passed the virus to her 10-year-old
nephew who then passed it to his father.
The possibility that the boy infected his father was supported by
genetic sequencing data. Other person-to-person transmissions in
the cluster were backed up with statistical data.
All but one of the flu victims died.
Local health authorities eventually placed more than 50 relatives
and close contacts under voluntary quarantine and the infections
stopped. But Longini's team does not believe the quarantine did the
trick; they believe the virus simply burned out.
"It went two generations and then just stopped, but it could have
gotten out of control," Longini said in a statement.
"The world really may have dodged a bullet with that one, and the
next time, we might not be so lucky."
The researchers now estimate the secondary-attack rate, which is
the risk that one person will infect another, is at about 29 per
cent. This is similar to what is seen for regular, seasonal flu in
the United States.
As for the cluster in Turkey, Longini's team could not find
statistical evidence of human-to-human transmission.
"There probably was person-to-person spread there as well but we
couldn't get all the information we needed for the analysis,"
biostatistician Yang Yang said.
Longini's team also says they have developed a tool to run quick
tests on disease outbreaks to see if dangerous epidemics or
pandemics may be developing. The software product, called
TranStat, would be available free of charge on the National
Institutes of Health's Models of Infectious Disease Agent Study, or
MIDAS, website.
Get a sneak peek of the all-new AOL.com.
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Let us please be civil and as always, Caveat Lector.
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