-Caveat Lector-


Begin forwarded message:

From: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Date: September 2, 2007 7:19:14 PM PDT
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Cc: [EMAIL PROTECTED], [EMAIL PROTECTED], [EMAIL PROTECTED], [EMAIL PROTECTED], [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: Latest in the Countdown to War with Iran

Will President Bush bomb Iran?

The Telegraph (UK), September 2, 2007

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/09/02/ wiran102.xml&page=1

Mr Bush's escalation of the rhetoric was deliberate. A former White House aide said that the reference to a "nuclear holocaust" was a precisely worded attempt to [conflate] Ahmadinejad's stated desire to wipe Israel off the map with Hitler's destruction of the Jews.

"By using the word 'Holocaust', Mr Bush has provided a moral cover for the Jewish state to do what it needs to do," said the former aide.

"He is invoking the notion of 'never again'. If you believe there could be another Holocaust, it becomes morally indefensible to stand back. It is a powerful and loaded term. The people who believed that the neo-cons have gone away and shrunk under a rock had better wise up fast."

...

In a nondescript room, two blocks from the American Capitol building, a group of Bush administration staffers is gathered to consider the gravest threat their government has faced this century: the testing of a nuclear weapon by Iran. The United States, no longer prepared to tolerate the risk that Iranian nuclear weapons will be used against Israel --or passed to terrorists-- has already launched a bombing campaign to destroy known Iranian nuclear sites, air bases and air defence sites. Iran has retaliated by cutting off oil to America and its allies, blockading the Straits of Hormuz, the Persian Gulf bottleneck, and sanctioned an uprising by Shia militias in southern Iraq that has shut down 60 per cent of Iraq's oil exports.

The job of the officials from the Pentagon, the State Department, and the Departments of Homeland Security and Energy, who have gathered in an office just off Massachusetts Avenue, behind the rail terminus, Union Station, is to prevent a spike in oil prices that will pitch the world's economy into a catastrophic spin.

The good news is that this was a war game The less happy news, for those who fear war with Iran, is that the officials participating in the game were the same officials who would be doing the same thing if the event were REAL.

The simulation, which took four months, was run by the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank with close links to the White House. Its conclusions, drawn up last month and seen by The Sunday Telegraph, have been passed on to military and civilian planners charged with drawing up plans for confronting Iran.

---------------------


"We Are Going To Hit Iran. Bigtime"

CAVEAT LECTOR

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2007/9/1/183018/1527 <LINK PULLED: See below> I have a friend who is an LSO on a carrier attack group that is planning and staging a strike group deployment into the Gulf of Hormuz. (LSO: Landing Signal Officer- she directs carrier aircraft while landing) She told me we are going to attack Iran. She said that all the Air Operation Planning and Asset Tasking are finished. That means that all the targets have been chosen, prioritized, and tasked to specific aircraft, bases, carriers, missile cruisers and so forth.

I asked her about the attack, how limited and so forth.

"I don’t think it’s limited at all. We are shipping in and assigning every damn Tomahawk we have in inventory. I think this is going to be massive and sudden, like thousands of targets. I believe that no American will know WHEN it happens until AFTER it happens. And whatever the consequences -- whatever the consequences, they will have to be lived with. I am sure if my father knew I was telling someone in a news organization that we were about to launch a supposedly secret attack that it would be treason. But something inside me tells me to tell it anyway."

I asked her why she was suddenly so cynical.

"I have become cynical only recently. I also don’t believe anyone will be able to stop this. Bush has become something of an Emperor. He will give the command, and cruise missiles will fly and aircraft will fly and people will die, and yet few of us here are really able to cobble together a great explanation of why this is a good idea."

She had to hang up. She left by telling me that she believes the attack is a done deal.

"It’s only a matter of time before their orders come and they will be sent to station and told to go to Red Alert."
Why I am skeptical we are attacking Iran [UPDATED]

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2007/9/2/194714/9801

by DemMarineVet

Sun Sep 02, 2007 at 04:47:14 PM PDT

Maccabee's diary written yesterday talks about an impending attack on Iran. While I do worry about what this administration is capable of, while reading his diary I became very skeptical about his claims.

I've spent four years in the Marine Corps as a machinegunner, some of which was on ship. I have a lot of friends who are in the navy. In addition military history, military tactics, and military equipment (especially our carriers) greatly interests me.

Why I am skeptical around the turn.

From Maccabee's diary: (emphasis from me)

"She started in the Marines and after 8 years her term was up. She had served on a smaller Marine carrier, and found out through a friend knew there was an opening for a junior grade LSO in a training position on a supercarrier. She used the reference and the information and applied for a transfer to the United States Navy. Since she had experience landing F-18Cs and Cobra Gunships, and an unblemished combat record, she was ratcheted into the job, successfully changing from the Marines to the Navy. Her role is still aligned with the Marines since she generally is assigned to liason with the Marine units deploying off her carrier group.

First off, the Marine Corps has no carriers. Our airwings which have F-18s do deploy off of United States Navy Carriers. We also deploy off of "smaller Marine carriers," however that label is incorrect. Those ships are amphibious ships. There are LHAs and LHDs which have flat decks and resemble carriers, however they are still navy ships which marines simply deploy off of.

Secondly, the Marine Corps does not launch F-18s off of LHDs or LHAs. We only launch AV-8B Harrier jumpjets, Cobra Gunship Helicopters, CH-46 Cargo Helicopters, and CH-53 Cargo Helicopters. The characteristic these platforms all have in common is that they take off vertically. All the F-18 variants need the steam catapults off the super carriers. So there is no way Maccabee's friend has experience launching F-18s from "smaller Marine carriers."

Another quote:

"I don’t think it’s limited at all. We are shipping in and assigning every damn Tomahawk we have in inventory. I think this is going to be massive and sudden, like thousands of targets. I believe that no American will know when it happens until after it happens. And whatever the consequences, whatever the consequences, they will have to be lived with. I am sure if my father knew I was telling someone in a news organization that we were about to launch a supposedly secret attack that it would be treason. But something inside me tells me to tell it anyway."

This sort of information does not leave the VERY secure environment of the Combat Information Center onboard of any ship. It is assigned on an extremely need to know basis. The guy working on the engines doesn't need to know where the Tomahawks are going. The woman landing and sending off airplanes doesn't even need to know where that airplane is going. Let alone where the Tomahawks are going on different ships in a carrier battle group. When I was on a couple of Navy Ships as a grunt I tried really hard just to see inside one of these combat information centers on our ship (the ships only purpose was carrying us around for amphibious missions), but they would never ever let me.

Also from Maccabee's diary:

She had to hang up. She left by telling me that she believes the attack is a done deal. "It’s only a matter of time before their orders come and they will be sent to station and told to go to Red Alert. She said they were already practicing trapsFARP and FAST." Trapping is the act of catching the tension wires when landing on the carrier, FARP is Fleet Air Combat Maneuvering Readiness Program- practice dogfighting- and FAST is Fleet Air Superiority Training).

This one I am not completely sure about. The Marine Corps practices TRAP missions. I do not know if the Navy has a different abbreviation for it, but TRAP is Tactical Recovery of Aircraft and Personnel). I think being on a carrier this would be a widely practiced mission. (The Navy has its own rescue helos as well). I do not know for sure if they have a different usage of this, but it makes me skeptical because TRAP is a widely practiced mission across the military.

All of this being said I still don't trust President Cheney and we do need to be diligent about making sure they do not try to widen the AUMF given for Iraq in order to attack Iran (we should be repealing it but thats a different story).

So please everyone calm down and lets not lose our minds. (I know... Its hard with Bush in office)




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