-Caveat Lector-

from:
http://www.aci.net/kalliste/
<A HREF="http://www.aci.net/kalliste/">The Home Page of J. Orlin Grabbe</A>
-----
US Stock Market

Buffett Warns Re High Corporate Profits

Has nasty things to say about accountants and money managers


Warren Buffett believes the high level of US corporate profits may be
unsustainable. America's second-richest man, who chairs the investment
group Berkshire Hathaway, said yesterday: "With long-term interest rates
at 5.5 per cent, there are a lot of questions about whether returns on
equity can remain at 18-20 per cent. A lot of companies are implicitly
promising you those returns will continue, but I am dubious about those
claims."


The warning, which came at this year's annual meeting of Berkshire
Hathaway, may be taken as a caution that stocks in general are too high,
although Mr Buffett emphasised that he and his partner, vice-chairman
Charlie Munger, never have a view on the stock market itself.


Mr Munger did add, however, that he thought internet stocks were
"irrationally overvalued". In general, though, Mr Buffett said: "Current
valuations could continue for many years. They could even get higher. We
don't worry about that, we just try to buy good businesses at
intelligent prices."


Mr Buffett admitted that acquisitions and investment ideas large enough
to make a difference to Berkshire's $57bn net worth were increasingly
difficult to find, largely because prices of big, public companies had
risen sharply over the past few years.


As a result, Berkshire, which has $15bn in cash, has been looking
outside the US, including Japan, Europe and the UK, where Mr Buffett
said in some cases prices looked a little more reasonable, although he
added that there was not a great difference.


But Mr Munger was quick to stress that talk that Berkshire was buying
into a particular UK stock was "a non-event" and insignificant given the
investment group's size.


Mr Buffett said: "When we find something good we are prepared to move
quickly and invest big. But right now there are few things to buy, so we
are just being patient."


Speaking to more than 14,000 shareholders, some of whom had flown from
around the world to be in Omaha, the two partners joked their way
through six hours of questions, often to cheers and spontaneous
applause. But they had harsh words for two groups of people: accountants
and money managers.


"Accounting in America is corrupt," said Mr Munger, referring to the
large restructuring charges regularly recorded by many companies and the
practice of not charging the value of employee stock options to profits
- both perfectly legal.


Mr Buffett said he was amazed that fund managers, who were simply
intermediaries between investors and companies, were able to charge fees
of up to 3 per cent "for accomplishing absolutely nothing". He put this
"frictional cost" of investment at $75bn annually, or more than a fifth
of the entire earnings of the top 500 US companies.

The Financial Times, May 4, 1999


Terrorist Notebook

No Need for Y2K: Graphite Bombs Take Down Power Grid

Will NATO inspire copycat bomb-makers, a la Littleton?

PARIS - Using a new U.S. weapon for the first time in combat, NATO
knocked out electricity in Belgrade and most of Serbia on Monday by
causing short circuits that took Yugoslav technicians hours to repair.
The warhead is so new that its name and specifications have not been
publicly released, including whether it is delivered as a bomb or by
missile. Experts said that it dusted power cables with graphite
filaments that triggered massive short circuits at switching stations
and caused power grids to shut down.

The attack, which Belgrade residents said deprived the city of power for
most of the night and again Monday afternoon, was described by a NATO
spokesman as a fresh blow to the Serbian military's operations in
Kosovo.

The technological escalation was mainly a signal intended to discourage
the Serbian leadership from continuing a war that NATO leaders insist
will turn increasingly against Belgrade. ''We wanted a compelling
demonstration of power and restraint,'' an alliance official said.

By unsheathing a new weapon, NATO appeared to be signaling that its
determination had not been altered by current diplomatic overtures from
Belgrade.

President Bill Clinton was considering messages about the conflict
Monday from Slobodan Milosevic, the Yugoslav leader. One was carried by
the Reverend Jesse Jackson, the American civil rights activist who
arranged the release of three U.S. servicemen captured by Serbia.

The second letter was brought by Viktor Chernomyrdin, the Russian
special envoy for the Balkans crisis, who was consulting with Mr.
Clinton at the White House on Monday.

Mr. Clinton has pledged to stand with other NATO leaders in demanding
that the alliance's conditions be met before any consideration can be
given to a halt in the bombing.

''Our conditions for ending the bombing are not complicated,'' Mr.
Clinton told reporters at a joint news conference with Prime Minister
Keizo Obuchi of Japan.

Those conditions, he recalled, included the return of all Kosovar
refugees to their homes in Kosovo, a withdrawal of Serbian security
forces from the province and the deployment of an international security
force there.

''Our air campaign cannot stop until Mr. Milosevic shows he is ready to
end the nightmare for the people of Kosovo,'' Mr. Clinton said.

Warning that Mr. Milosevic was trying to dupe the allies while pursuing
his offensive in Kosovo, President Jacques Chirac of France said in a
television appearance Monday that ''NATO has to pursue its campaign
until it obtains decisive results'' against Belgrade.

Mr. Chirac, who shares the Clinton administration's desire to see Russia
engage its political weight behind the allied demands on Kosovo, said
that he would travel to Moscow in two weeks to meet with President Boris
Yeltsin on the crisis.

At their Washington summit meeting a week ago, NATO leaders authorized a
stepped-up air campaign against Serbia - and promised aid to the
neighboring nations taking in ethnic Albanian refugees from Kosovo.

As more refugees reached Kosovo's borders, Prime Minister Tony Blair of
Britain visited Macedonia and Albania - the two countries with the
biggest influx - to offer assurances of Western support.

Aid workers were raising new questions about the condition of several
hundred thousand displaced Kosovars reportedly hiding in the hills in
Kosovo after fleeing from their villages, often at gunpoint - and
apparently unable to reach the frontiers.

In stepping up the air strikes, NATO seemed to be hoping to show
Belgrade that the allied offensive would exact a steadily increasing
toll on Serbia's military and economy, with an inevitable trend toward
increasing civilian hardship.

''There is a growing readiness in the alliance to bring the war home to
the Serbs,'' a NATO official said in private, saying that the alliance
wanted to demonstrate to Serbian civilians that the allied restraint in
targeting its air strikes was a policy decision, to minimize economic
and human hardship - and not a result of weakness.

The risk of a mounting civilian toll in an expanding air war seemed to
be confirmed Monday when a bus carrying cvilian passengers was reported
to have been hit by a NATO air strike in northwestern Kosovo.

Serbian officials were quoted as saying that at least 17 people were
killed in the incident. Alliance sources said that the death toll was
exaggerated but did not deny the incident. It would be the sixth
''accident of war'' since NATO started its assault six weeks ago.

So far, the air strikes against Serbian targets seem to have bolstered
internal support for the Belgrade government.

But NATO's tone seemed to be hardening. A British military commander
said at a news conference in London that ''as more assets become
available, the air war is going to continue intensifying, with
increasingly apparent results for the leadership in Serbia.''

Alliance officials, who recently cited signs of strain within the
Belgrade regime, said that doubts about Mr. Milosevic's policy might
spread as its costs emerged more clearly and NATO demonstrated its power
more dramatically.

In the blackout Monday, television went off the air, hospitals had to
resort to emergency generators, elevators halted in place and
refrigerators stopped working long enough to jeopardize perishables,
officials said.

The bombing Monday night, which went farther than any previous air
strikes in deliberately targeting the infrastructure of daily civilian
life in Belgrade, was described by NATO as showing that the alliance
could now turn Serbia's power supply on and off at will.

''The fact that the lights went out across 70 percent of the country
shows that NATO has its finger on the light switch in Yugoslavia now and
we can turn the power off whenever we need to and whenever we want to,''
a NATO spokesman, Jamie Shea, said at a news conference in Brussels.

The graphite weapon used by NATO resembled a device used by the United
States against Iraq during Desert Storm: it destroyed power generators
with a flurry of copper shards.

Graphite filaments, used in the new weapon, do not cause permanent
damage. Instead, they incapacitate a power grid temporarily, leaving the
generators and the rest of the infrastructure intact.

They could be used over and over to systematically deprive a target zone
of electricity, including an area as large as Serbia. That would hamper
Serbian military command and control systems, but only temporarily until
they could turn to gasoline-fueled emergency generators.

A campaign using this technology could backfire by causing civilian
hardship outweighing any crippling effect on the Serbian military.
Belgrade's armed forces are likely better equipped to cope with power
shortages than civilian facilities.

International Herald Tribune, May 4, 1999
-----
Aloha, He'Ping,
Om, Shalom, Salaam.
Em Hotep, Peace Be,
Omnia Bona Bonis,
All My Relations.
Adieu, Adios, Aloha.
Amen.
Roads End
Kris

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