______________________________________
Stratfor's FREE Kosovo Crisis Center -
http://www.stratfor.com/kosovo/crisis/
The most comprehensive coverage of the
Kosovo Crisis anywhere on the Internet
______________________________________
STRATFOR's
Global Intelligence Update
May 13, 1999
Angolan War Intensifies -- Backed by Whom?
Summary:
After the Angolan government's attempt last December to finally
eradicate the rebel UNITA army went horribly awry, UNITA this
month launched its own, somewhat more effective offensive. In
the absence of foreign intervention, it is likely that UNITA's
campaign would eventually peter out as well. Yet as foreign
powers publicly stand back and condemn UNITA and the Angolan
conflict in general, there is reason to believe that, behind the
scenes, they are playing an active role in the battle -- one not
necessarily in line with their declarations.
Analysis:
Angola's UNITA rebels, who launched a broad offensive on May 4,
claimed on May 12 that they were closing in on the capital,
Luanda, and key oil installations at Soyo to the north -- claims
apparently validated by flows of refugees from the areas in
question. Earlier this month UNITA cut power to the capital.
UNITA Secretary General Paulo Lukamba Gato claimed that the
rebels now hold some 70 percent of the country, and control the
entire border with the Democratic Republic of the Congo and
Zambia, as well as three quarters of the border with Namibia.
UNITA has called the 1994 Lusaka Protocol, which was to have
ended Angola's civil war, effectively dead, and has vowed to
carry on the fight until Luanda returns to the negotiating table.
The Angolan government steadfastly refuses to negotiate with the
rebels.
The UNITA offensive follows a failed Angolan Army (FAA) campaign
launched last December in hopes of capturing the two main UNITA
strongholds of Bailundo and Andulo and of eradicating the rebel
army. UNITA decisively repelled four offensives against the
towns, reportedly capturing large amounts of FAA heavy equipment,
small arms, and ammunition in the process. Since then, the FAA
has acknowledged the balance of forces stands in UNITA's favor,
and government forces have been limited to "active defense."
Angola has been forced to reinstate forced conscription and has
withdrawn forces from Congo Brazzaville and the Democratic
Government of the Congo (DRC), where they were backing both
governments against rebels allied with UNITA.
The FAA claims it is preparing for a dry season offensive later
this month, where it can put its combined arms tactics to good
use against the rebels. But reports indicate that UNITA now has
a substantial number of surface to air missiles, which it has
already successfully used several times, and this should blunt
the government's air campaign. Additionally, UNITA has obtained
a large number of tanks and armored fighting vehicles and, with
the help of South African mercenary instructors, has reportedly
developed some prowess in conventional maneuver warfare. UNITA
has also acquired a substantial air force of its own, including
MiG-23 fighter bombers and Mi-24 attack helicopters, reportedly
from Ukraine through a European intermediary. The aircraft
reportedly come with Ukrainian mercenary pilots.
In what is effectively the sum total of international action on
the war in Angola, the UN Security Council on May 7 called for
tightened sanctions on UNITA and created two special commissions
to study the war, particularly sanctions-busting by UNITA. The
UN, the OAU, and other international organizations have blamed
UNITA for undermining the Lusaka Protocol and starting and
perpetuating the current conflict. However, the UN pulled its
peacekeeping troops out of the country, and the regional South
African Development Community (SADC) has refrained from
intervening, due apparently to divisions over which side to
support. Notably, the Angolan conflict appears to have deepened
the rift between SADC members Zimbabwe -- which openly supports
Luanda as well as the DRC government in that country's conflict,
and South Africa -- which appears to support UNITA and the DRC
rebel forces, though far less openly.
The civil war between UNITA and Angola's ruling MPLA began
shortly after the country was granted its independence by
Portugal in 1975. During the Cold War, the U.S. and China
supported UNITA, while the Soviet Union and Cuba backed the MPLA.
Since the end of the Cold War, the war and its sponsorship has
evolved significantly. This has been accelerated and exacerbated
as the conflicts in Angola and the DRC have become tightly
intertwined, and have linked to conflicts across the continent.
As it currently stands, Angola, Zimbabwe, Namibia, and the DRC
signed a mutual defense pact on April 8. Angola also signed a
border security pact with Congo Brazzaville on May 12. Angola,
Namibia, and Zimbabwe have all sent forces to help the Kabila
regime in the DRC, and those forces have reportedly battled UNITA
forces on both sides of the border. Kabila also reportedly
receives support from Sudan, Libya, Chad, China, and France.
Cuban mercenary instructors have reportedly been spotted with FAA
troops in Angola, and Libyan military pilots have reportedly been
seen at Luanda's airport. The Russian connection to Luanda is
reported to hold firm as well, with Russian mercenary pilots
allegedly comprising some of the Angolan air force.
Zambia almost certainly supports UNITA, at least as a logistical
rear area and supply conduit. Togo, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, and
Cote d'Ivoire also reportedly support UNITA. This is not a
particularly impressive sponsor list, but the list is longer.
UNITA cooperates with the DRC rebel forces, which are in turn
backed by Uganda, Rwanda, and Burundi. These, in turn receive
support from the United States and South Africa. UNITA's
Ukrainian aircraft were reportedly acquired with Western European
assistance, and arrived by way of Uganda and a rebel held
airfield in the DRC. The transshipment of arms through Uganda
was unlikely to occur without U.S. knowledge and at least tacit
approval, suggesting that UNITA's promises not to attack foreign
economic interests in Angola are believable. UNITA also
reportedly receives support from Saudi Arabia and Morocco.
There are additional interesting hints of UNITA's European
connections. For instance, the rebels are supposedly nearing
Soyo, where the Belgian oil company Fina Angola has operations,
yet some sources report that Belgium helped to facilitate
rearming the rebels. UNITA General Secretary Paulo Lukamba Gato
on May 12 insisted that UNITA would respect foreign oil
interests, claiming "I can attack a place without destroying
foreign companies' infrastructure." UNITA has recently issued
repeated assurances that it will protect foreign interests in
Angola. UNITA claims it understands that Angola needs foreign
expertise and investment and that any Angolan government must
enter into mutually beneficial contracts with foreign companies.
Unconfirmed reports suggest UNITA may have purchased part of its
air force with promises of oil field concessions. Besides oil,
UNITA controlled diamond mines in Angola are highly attractive to
European and South African companies, as are other mines in
neighboring UNITA ally Zambia and rebel controlled regions of the
DRC.
UNITA's European and South African connections are further
confirmed by its weaponry. While much of UNITA's arms are
ubiquitous Soviet models, the rebels reportedly have French
Crotale surface to air missiles, obtained either from Europe or
from South Africa, which uses the system. UNITA also reportedly
has Yugoslav Orkan multiple rocket launchers and South African G5
155mm artillery. According to Jane's Intelligence Review, some
of UNITA's weapons, including South African arms and ammunition,
arrived through a Mozambique port. This equipment was then flown
on South African based aircraft into Angola, possibly by way of
Zambia.
In short, while European countries and the United States have
joined the United Nations in publicly condemning UNITA for
starting and perpetuating the ongoing conflict in Angola, it is
apparent that not all are acting in accordance with their
declarations. The Central African wars that we have watched
gradually and inseparably intertwine are showing ever increasing
outside manipulation. The true test will be when outside
manipulation forces direct outside participation. Has the
revival of the Great Game in Central Asia found its match in a
return to neo-colonial competition in Central Africa? It
certainly looks that way.
___________________________________________________
To receive free daily Global Intelligence Updates,
sign up on the web at:
http://www.stratfor.com/services/giu/subscribe.asp
or send your name, organization, position, mailing
address, phone number, and e-mail address to
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
___________________________________________________
STRATFOR, Inc.
504 Lavaca, Suite 1100
Austin, TX 78701
Phone: 512-583-5000
Fax: 512-583-5025
Internet: http://www.stratfor.com/
Email: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
