-Caveat Lector-
FOUR REASONS WE MAY SEE NUCLEAR WAR IN 1999
By Carol Moore
U.S./NATO LEADER “WAGS THE DOG”
During 1998 President Clinton threatened or ordered bombing attacks on
Iraq, Sudan and Afghanistan that coincided with initial allegations of
adultery, his admission of adultery, the House of Representatives’ vote on
impeachment and the televising of Juanita Broaddrick’s credible allegation
that Arkansas Attorney General Bill Clinton raped her in 1978. Although
Clinton escaped impeachment, he continues to face jeopardy: leaked FBI files
that he had raped three other women and assaulted a number of others;
reporters hounding these women to speak out; federal investigators
interrogating former Clinton business partners and Chinese government-linked
campaign contributors; a forthcoming Congressional report on Clinton’s laxity
in stopping Chinese government spying at U.S. weapons facilities; reports
that Clinton allowed China to legally import nuclear weapons manufacture
equipment.
Clinton doubtless saw a double benefit in warring against Serbia’s
Slobodan Milosevic–he could distract the press and public from his scandals
and create the historical legacy of a great leader in wartime. Despite
military and CIA warnings that bombing Serbia would drive Serbs to expel
hundreds of thousands of Albanians from Kosovo and kill thousands more,
Clinton ordered the bombing. Serbia responded as predicted. Yet most Clinton
news stories now focus on his role as military leader of the humanitarian
effort to help Kosovo’s Albanians. Clinton’s wagging the dog has
destabilized the area and enraged Russia, which still has 6000 plus nuclear
weapons, mostly pointed at the U.S. Wars have a habit of escalating faster
than their participants planned or anticipated. Clinton’s habit of wagging
the dog could escalate to worldwide nuclear war within a few short weeks.
RUSSIAN ECONOMIC, POLITICAL AND MILITARY PROBLEMS
The Russian economy is a shambles, dominated by a few
politically-adroit bankers and a huge class of criminals who plague honest
businesses; government, businesses and individuals rely heavily on bartering
goods and services. Government services regularly fail to pay employees,
pensioners, military officers and conscripts–even those who control its
nuclear weapons. Russia’s conventional forces and weapons are deteriorating
and its armies are poor and hungry; only its massive arsenal of 6000 plus
nuclear weapons poised for delivery gives it military credibility. (The U.S.
has over 8000 nuclear weapons.)
The Russian people have been infuriated by NATO attacks on their
longtime friend and ally Yugoslavia. Thousands have demonstrated in the
streets; one group attempted to launch a grenade attack against the American
embassy. Russia is promising humanitarian aid to Serbia and sending a spy
ship to the Adriatic ocean off Albania. Russians are volunteering to fight on
the Serbs’ side. Rumors that Russia will send Serbia weapons abound.
Russian Premier Boris Yeltsin has threatened to re-target nuclear weapons on
Europe, brought out plans for battlefield nuclear weapons and repeatedly
warned of the possibility of world war. Russian, China, India and other
nations are discussing banding together against the U.S. and NATO in new
security alliances.
Authoritarian and ultra-nationalist leaders, both communist and
fascist, promise Russians that if elected in the year 2000 they will right
the economy and punish NATO and U.S. aggressors. This forces Russia’s
current leaders to take a strong stand.
U.S. AND RUSSIAN NEAR-ACCIDENTAL NUCLEAR WARS
The U.S. and Russia both have a nuclear policy of “launch on
warning.” This means that less than 15 minutes after detecting a possible
missile attack, their militaries must launch all 14000 nuclear weapons or
possibly loose them to a first strike by the other side. U.S. leaders have
less than 15 minutes to decide if satellites and warning systems are
detecting a real attack or merely detecting an innocent phenomena, including
a minor glitch in one of hundreds of computers or thousands of software
programs. As we shall see, Russian leaders have even less time. (China has
nuclear weapons but does not have launch on warning.)
In the last 30 years there have been several incidents which would
have led to nuclear war had not clear thinking human beings decided the
warning systems were in error. In 1979 a nuclear war simulation tape in a
NORAD computer was interpreted to be a real nuclear attack and for 6 minutes
emergency preparations for nuclear retaliation were made until the error was
discovered. In 1980 a flawed 64-cent chip in telephone switching hardware at
NORAD started sending alarming messages to U.S. command centers that a
nuclear attack was under way. Defense Department memoranda and a General
Accounting Office report have described numerous data, equipment, and
software errors in missile warning systems over the last two decades.
In 1983, a Russian satellite interpreted sun glare off clouds as a
U.S. nuclear attack and only a lower officer’s decision the U.S. had no
reason to attack prevented him from reporting such an attack. In January,
1995, Russian President Yeltsin was alerted after radar detected an
unexpected missile launch and was close to a decision to launch when the
missile went out to sea. It was discovered military leaders had failed to
pass on Norway’s alert that it would be launching a scientific satellite that
day.
Today Russia has only three operational satellites and an outdated
ground-based radar system which together fail to cover all possible missile
entry routes from land and sea. This makes the Russian military and leaders
particularly paranoid and gives them as little as 5 minutes to decide if they
are under nuclear attack and launch missiles. Any international situation
which makes the Russians or U.S. nervous makes it more likely that the next
missile warning error will send 14000 nuclear missiles aloft.
Y2K INCREASES CHANCE OF ACCIDENTAL NUCLEAR WAR
On January 1, 2000 a large portion of Russian satellites and
tracking devices may go down for days, weeks or months because of Year
2000-related computer problems; so may their already shaky command and
control and communications systems. Those of the U.S. also may be
compromised to a lesser extent. Both sides probably will experience a number
of false warnings of nuclear attacks. Recognizing this problem, Russia and
the U.S. were working on a missile-warning plan that would reassure both
sides that an attack was not underway. However, after the bombing of Serbia,
angry Russians vowed not to cooperate with the U.S. Without such cooperation,
unsure of how their computers will function after January 1st, and watching
NATO and American troops fighting Serbs and Russians in Kosovo, both sides’
militaries could be tempted to pursue a first strike against the other’s
military targets before January 1–a Y2K “use it or lose it” strategy. Even
if negotiations end the war in Yugoslavia, we could have an accidental
nuclear war unless all nuclear weapons are de-alerted and the launch on
warning strategy is abandoned.
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