-Caveat Lector-
>From www.iwpr.net
Seeds Of Discontent
While many families have been left without an income, harvests are at
risk and some local authorities are breaking ranks with Belgrade to
impose war-time rationing.
By a journalist in Novi Sad
After two months of NATO bombing, the daily struggle of most Serbs to
put food on the table has become so severe even the regime media has
had to acknowledge it.
A recent issue of the Belgrade daily Glas Javnosti focused on the
fortunes of the Petrovic family from Lenin Boulevard in New Belgrade.
Although all four members work--the father is an engineer, the mother
a teacher, and the two children combine studies with menial jobs--
they are forced to borrow money towards the end of every month just
to meet their food bill.
If the Petrovic's--with their four pay packets--are struggling to
make ends meet, conditions for the bulk of the population are even
more difficult. The average monthly income for those in work is about
1,000 dinars (100 German Marks), and many families are without a
single breadwinner.
With no sign of an early end to NATO's air campaign, many analysts
fear that conditions will deteriorate in the coming months to such an
extent that hunger could effect vulnerable sections of Serbian
society by late autumn.
In an effort to head off food supply problems, authorities in Nis,
Serbia's third city, and elsewhere, have introduced rationing--moves
which Belgrade deems unnecessary.
"The decision of some towns in Serbia concerning the provision of
foodstuffs by means of coupons is illegal and their withdrawal has
been ordered," says Serbian Trade Minister Zoran Krstic.
He claims that food supplies are much as before the war and that
shortages of sugar, cooking oil, rice and other basic commodities are
temporary, caused by unnecessary hoarding.
Whatever the case, shops in much of the country now lack many
essential products and the black market is thriving. Moreover, the
availability of food will worsen if this year's harvest is poor.
Publicly, government officials remain optimistic. Vojvodina Prime
Minister Bosko Perosevic boasts that 97 per cent of arable land in
his province, Yugoslavia's breadbasket which produces between 80 and
90 per cent of the country's agricultural products, has been
successfully sowed "despite NATO aggression".
"Yields of wheat will reach roughly the same level as the average in
recent years," he says. "And the barley yield is expected to be
greater than in previous years." With equal optimism, Perosevic also
forecasts good harvests for corn, sunflower and sugar beat.
Federal Agriculture Minister Nedeljko Sipovac goes further,
insisting, "We have a sure and secured supply for citizens of food,
meat, milk and their products, as well as a surplus of these products
for export."
Agricultural experts do not share the politicians' optimism. They
fear catastrophically low yields in Vojvodina's farms this year. If
their prognoses prove accurate, this could seriously threaten the
supply of food for the Serbian market.
Even before the NATO bombing campaign, Milorad Rajic, a leading
farming expert, had warned that this year's harvest would be poor
because of poor preparations for the spring sowing. He says that
farmers failed to plough their fields properly in the winter, did not
have sufficient money to buy seeds, were unable to acquire sufficient
fuel and artificial fertilisers, and did not have adequate machinery
and spare parts.
Although Vojvodina's soil is exceptionally fertile, lack of
investment during the past decade has caused yields to fall. The
average age of tractors, combine harvesters and other farming
machines is more than 15 years. Many are no longer operational and
only kept for spare parts. Most farmers are so impoverished that they
cannot afford to buy necessary parts, let alone new machines.
As a result, Vojvodina now generates just three-and-a-half tonnes of
wheat per hectare, compared with more than five tonnes in Hungary,
seven in the United Kingdom and eight in the Netherlands.
Ljiljana Vasic, president of the Alliance of Co-operatives of
Vojvodina, said on the eve of the sowing that she fears that Serbia
will soon have to import not only sugar and cooking oil, but also
wheat and corn. She warned that yields of agricultural products in
Vojvodina have dropped to 1965 levels.
Since the NATO bombing, farmers have required coupons for fuel. In
April, they were entitled to 8 litres of fuel for each hectare; in
May only 4 litres. They say that with so little fuel they can hardly
reach their farms, let alone work on them.
Wheat harvesting should begin in about a month's time. However,
without an end to the war and additional fuel supplies, much of the
wheat will likely stay in the fields and rot. Even if conditions do
improve and there is a peace agreement, there are not enough working
combine harvesters to complete the harvest.
Transporting agricultural products from farms to storage silos and
processing plants will also be difficult. In addition to the fuel
shortage, farmers have to contend with the destruction to Serbia's
infrastructure, damage inflicted on roads, and especially the bridges
across the Danube linking Vojvodina with the rest of the country.
Paying for the agricultural products will be a particular problem.
The state has failed to pay farmers what it owes them for last year's
produce. As a result of the war, this situation can only get worse.
Farmers fear that the state will seize their produce by force just as
the communists did that after the Second World War via "obligatory
purchases". As evidence, they point to restrictions, which the state
has just imposed, on the quantity of wheat that farmers can mill for
their own needs. The implication is that any surplus will have to be
handed over to the state.
The author is an independent journalist in Novi Sad whose name has
been withheld.
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