-Caveat Lector-
<<So: a need for a placid Balkans is shared by others; AND, the need
for a docile Kurdish people likewise demostrated -- again ...>>
>From Newsmax.CoM
> The Caspian Connection: Pipeline
> Politics and the Balkan War
> Carl Limbacher and Caron GrichJune 9, 1999
>
> What has America accomplished in the Balkans after 70-plus days of
> NATO bombardment?
>
> Cease fire negotiations sputter along on a wing and a prayer. And if
> they are successful, America will be rewarded with the privilege of
> contributing 7,000 troops to a force of 50,000 Kosovo "peacekeepers".
> Tour of duty: indefinite.
>
> Though Bill Clinton's Balkan adventure did much to keep the press
> distracted from matters like Chinese nuclear espionage and
> inconvenient rape charges (reporters last hit Clinton with a question
> about Juanita Broaddrick just five days before he ordered airstrikes
> on Serbia), it's debatable whether Kosovar refugees will be better off
> for all the effort.
>
> Slobodan Milosevic, recently dubbed an official war criminal, will
> retain power over Serbia. And NATO may even have to accommodate a
> Russian presence in Kosovo, which will only further discourage
> displaced ethnic Albanians from returning home.
>
> Not much of a victory. Not much, that is, until one considers another
> factor that may have propelled NATO into the Balkans; an incentive
> which has nothing to do with humanitarian relief or scandal spin.
>
> NATO's Eyes on the Prize
>
> If President Clinton were to level with the American people, he might
> just explain NATO's first hot war by using a variation of his old
> campaign theme: "It's the global economy, stupid." Because NATO's
> entry into the Balkans, though thus far an abject failure in terms of
> the mission's ostensible goals, places the West, and especially
> Western Europe, on the doorstep of resources so vast that the move
> could mean decades worth of economic well-being for member nations.
>
> Ponder this nearly two year-old observation from the New York Times,
> reported when a U.S. security force in the Balkans was only a twinkle
> in Madeleine Albright's eye:
>
> "Forget mutual funds, commodity futures and corporate mergers. Forget
> South African Diamonds, European currencies and Thai stocks. The most
> concentrated mass of untapped wealth known to exist anywhere is in the
> oil and gas fields beneath the Caspian (Sea) and lands around it....
> The strategic implications of this bonanza hypnotize Western security
> planners as completely as the finances transfix oil executives." (New
> York Times -- September 21, 1997)
>
> Or this, from a conservative think tank the year before:
>
> "The vast expanses of the former Soviet Union harbor oil and gas
> riches which will be crucial to funding the global economy in the next
> century. The huge oil reserves, estimated at over 25 billion barrels
> under the Caspian Sea and in the central Asian republics of
> Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan are similar to those in Kuwait
> and larger than those in Alaska's Northern Slope and the North Sea
> combined." (Ariel Cohen, Senior Policy Analyst, The Heritage
> Foundation - January 25, 1996)
>
> "Control over these energy resources and export routes out of the
> Eurasian hinterland is quickly becoming one of the central issues in
> post Cold War politics," Cohen added, without noting that Caspian oil
> played a major role a pre-Cold War geo-strategic conflict as well. In
> an attempt to gain control over access routes to the same oil reserves
> during World War II, the Third Reich waged the bloodiest battle ever
> fought, the siege at Stalingrad.
>
> More recent history shows that war for oil isn't exactly a new
> concept, even for America. When the U.S. went to war to chase Saddam
> Hussein out of Kuwaiti oil fields in 1991, then-U.S. Secretary of
> State James Baker was unabashed about our motives, saying that there
> were three reasons behind Operation Desert Storm: "Jobs, jobs and
> jobs."
>
> Today Kosovo, Tomorrow Azerbaijan
>
> Ever since the break-up of the old Soviet Union, the West has had its
> eye on the oil fields of Central Asia. And security for pipelines
> carrying the crude out is a priority concern that could make or break
> billions of dollars already invested by U.S oil companies like Mobil,
> Chevron, Amoco and others.
>
> But to get Caspian oil to the trillion petro-dollar market of Western
> Europe, planners need alternatives to old pipeline routes that
> traversed Iran and Russia. That means development of the huge Eurasian
> reserves must focus on the corridor between those two potentially
> hostile regions.
>
> Almost all roads lead to Baku, Azerbaijan, the Caspian seaport
> believed to be sitting on trillions of dollars of untapped crude. 12
> energy companies have entered into a $7.5 billion consortium, the
> Azerbaijani International Operating Company (AIOC). Five are U.S.
> based: Penzoil, Unocal, McDermott and Exxon, and Amoco, now merged
> with British Petroleum.
>
> In April the 515 mile Baku-Supsa pipeline opened for business and was
> hailed by Azerbajaini officials as a breakthrough because it avoided
> Russian territory, thereby adding to Azerbaijan's economic
> independence. But Baku-Supsa will be able to handle only 10% of the
> expected Caspian gusher. The AIOC is considering two other possible
> pipeline routes to the West:
>
> The Northern Route: From Baku northwest through the Russian Republic
> of Chechnya, to the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, where tankers
> would transport the oil through the Bosporous and Dardenelle straights
> to the Agean Sea. (Some energy experts worry that transport through
> the unregulated Bosporus passage would represent a chokepoint for
> terrorists, with a cutoff of Caspian oil easily accomplished by
> sinking a single tanker. Alternative plans include a detour north
> across the Black Sea to Burgas, Bulgaria -- where the oil would be
> pipelined to Alexandroupolis, Greece along what has been dubbed the
> Trans-Balkan Pipeline.)
>
> The Mediterranean Route: From Baku west, skirting Iran through Turkey
> -- where Western tankers would collect the oil from Turkish port of
> Ceyhan. The Baku-Ceyhan pipeline is the strong favorite of U.S. energy
> planners.
>
> Undoubtedly, Baku-Ceyhan has its advantages. It avoids some of the
> risks posed by warring factions along other pipeline routes. And
> should, for instance, Kurdish rebels attempt to disrupt the free flow
> of oil, NATO member Turkey could be counted upon to resolve the
> situation to the West's satisfaction, especially since Turkey itself
> would stand to gain hundreds of millions of dollars in pipeline
> tolling fees alone.
>
> How a DNC Donor Changed U.S. Pipeline Policy
>
> Some suspect that the Clinton administration staunchly supports the
> Baku-Ceyhan route, not so much out of concern over pipeline security
> -- but because the Turkish route was initially favored by a major
> contributor to the Democratic National Committee, Lebanese oilman
> Roger Tamraz.
>
> As recently as May 1995, the U.S. took no official position supporting
> either the Black Sea, Turkish or other pipeline plans. That month,
> Tamraz met with NSC official Shelia Heslin but failed to sell her on
> his plan to pump oil from Baku to the Turkish port city of Yumurtalik.
> Afterwards, Heslin tried to keep Tamraz out of the White House and
> away from Clinton.
>
> But throughout the summer and fall of 1995, $195,000 of Tamraz's money
> made its way into DNC coffers. That September, the persistent oilman
> attended two White House coffees with Clinton on hand. Afterwards,
> former Clinton Chief of Staff Mack McLarty arranged for Tamraz to meet
> with Energy Department officials. By October, Tamraz's project had the
> backing of the Clinton State Department.
>
> The pressure brought to bear on Tamraz's behalf was quite impressive,
> considering that even with his subsequent donations, he had given a
> only $300,000. But for that amount, spare change really for someone in
> Tamraz's league, DNC chairman Don Fowler personally chatted up Ms.
> Heslin on Tamraz's behalf. Around the same time, even the Clinton CIA
> began sending Heslin favorable reports on the Lebanese oilman.
>
> But just as Tamraz seemed to be making headway, the Azerbaijani oil
> consortium began to move away from the Turkish route, seeing projects
> like Tamraz's as too costly. Falling crude prices throughout the late
> 90's cooled other larger oil companies on a Turkish pipeline as well.
>
> Still the Turkish route, Baku-Ceyhan in particular, continued to enjoy
> strong American support, despite the fact that by October 1998 the
> major oil companies had flat out rejected the plan.
>
> Writing for Radio Free Europe/ Radio Liberty in May, Michael Lelyveld
> explained it this way:
>
> "For several months, the gap between the U.S. government and the oil
> industry appeared to be widening....the (Clinton) administration has
> refused to accept the industry's rejection and has mounted a
> determined diplomatic effort to keep the Baku-Ceyhan scheme
> alive....The result has been increasing friction and loss of (U.S.)
> credibility on the pipeline issue."
>
> One possible reason the U.S. stubbornly clings to the now rejected
> Turkish pipeline may be Turkey's ever increasing value as a strategic
> ally. Before the peace agreement, there were plans for NATO planes to
> begin striking Serbia from Turkish bases like Bandirma and Balikesir.
> Turkey supplied the U.N. coalition with its northern air bases for
> 1991's successful Persian Gulf campaign against Iraq.
>
> Making Turkey the major Western conduit for the Caspian oil basin
> jackpot would help the NATO member evolve from a third world economic
> backwater to a major European player. And of course, a significant
> NATO presence in Turkey would place Euro-America's enforcers on the
> doorstep of the Caspian oil fields. NATO Slips into Caspian Region
>
> "The Clinton administration has also offered the promise of greater
> U.S. defense cooperation with Azerbaijan. For example, NATO, through
> its Partnership for Peace program, has established the Central Asian
> Peacekeeping Battalion, or CENBAT," reports Jofi Joseph in a January
> 1999 case study on "Pipeline Politics" for Princeton University's
> Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs.
>
> "As part of one of the first joint exercises involving American
> soldiers and the CENBAT force, 500 members of the U.S. Army's 82nd
> Airborne Division parachuted into Kazakhstan (Azerbaijan's oil rich
> neighbor across the Caspian Sea) after a 23- hour flight from Ft.
> Bragg. The impressive display powerfully represented the strategic
> reach of the U.S.; the Kazakhstan deputy foreign minister stated,
> 'Five years ago, no one here could even dream of such things as
> American soldiers dropping out of the sky into a remote area of
> Kazakhstan.' "
>
> Prof. Joseph adds, "Evolving closer defense ties with Azerbaijan's
> neighbors sends a clear signal that the U.S. and NATO are interested
> in the security of the region, of which Azerbaijan is one of the most
> valuable pieces."
>
> Joseph isn't the only one who sees a compelling NATO interest in the
> Caspian region. RFE's Michael Lelyveld, says that a U.S. military
> presence in Azerbaijan is inevitable, especially as Western leaders
> continue to expand NATO's protective umbrella:
>
> "Having said yes to Eastern Europe, the U.S. and NATO may not be able
> to close the door on a region that is seen as a strategic prize....
> Security for the planned Baku-Ceyhan oil pipeline and the
> trans-Caspian gas line may be impossible without some U.S. role or
> credible support.....Because of Russia's role in the region, there may
> be no power other than the United States, or U.S. backed
> organizations, that can serve as a guarantor of peace."
>
> The China Connection
>
> Getting Caspian oil to world markets may be a boon for another big
> player just now emerging on the world's economic stage. Here's how the
> Clinton Energy Department described China's oil needs just months
> before the Balkan War began:
>
> "China's economic growth has made it the second largest
> energy-consuming nation in the world. This rapid growth has
> outstripped China's domestic oil production and, in 1993, China became
> a net oil importer. Imports currently account for 15% of total
> consumption, but they are projected to increase to between 40 and 50%
> of China's consumption by 2020."
>
> China's demand for oil could have a major impact on world markets
> unless new reserves are tapped. U.S. oil and gas interests are now the
> largest investor in China's petroleum sector. The Clinton Energy and
> Commerce Departments have already begun talks in Beijing about new
> opportunities for oil exploration and development.
>
> Interestingly enough, Roger Tamraz, the oil pipeline gadfly who pushed
> the Clinton administration to get behind a Caspian route through
> Turkey, turned his sights eastward when those plans foundered. At last
> report, Tamraz has the support of the China National Petroleum Company
> in new efforts to help Beijing tap into the Caspian oil jackpot.
>
> Europe's Goals, America's Troops
>
> In April, a new strategic concept was adopted by the NATO alliance at
> its 50th anniversary celebration in Washington, D.C.. The new
> initiative "propels the U.S. military into unlimited responsibilities
> for policing a new world order," according to syndicated columnist
> Robert Novak.
>
> One Senator told Novak that the shift in NATO policy is so dramatic
> that it might be necessary to submit the revisions to Congress for
> ratification, since the move formalizes the new U.S. role as global
> policeman.
>
> These new responsibilities begin in the Balkans, but where do they
> lead?
>
> Novak noted that British Prime Minister Tony Blair seemed
> extraordinarily enthusiastic about NATO's expanding role; which is a
> great bargain from Blair's standpoint if the current division of labor
> holds. The U.S. is currently shouldering about 80% of the Balkan war
> effort today.
>
> Blair regaled the gathering with his own theories about " a new
> doctrine of international community." According to Novak, "He made it
> clear that the West now recognizes no bar to intervention into the
> domestic affairs of a sovereign country." Meanwhile, Clinton sat
> passively as the Brit outlined their alliance's new ambitions.
>
> Perhaps the President knew the Prime Minister had said too much,
> inadvertently lifting the veil on the West's designs beyond Kosovo --
> which may one day lead all the way to the Caspian Sea.
>
>
>
>
>
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