-Caveat Lector-

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-----
Today's Lesson From The Rosetta Stone

by E. A. Wallis Budge


In the ninth year of the reign of Ptolemy V. Epiphanes, who reigned from
203-181 B.C., the priests of all the gods of Upper and Lower Egypt
assembled at Memphis, presumably in the great temple of Ptah, the
Blacksmith-god of that city, the capital of the northern half of the
kingdom. By whose wish or order they assembled it is not known, but the
definite object of this great Council of Priests was the commemoration,
for the first time, of the accession of Ptolemy V to the throne of
Egypt. The King was then only about twelve years of age, but during the
six years of his reign under the direction of Agathocles, Sosibus,
Tlepolemus, Aristomenes, Scopas and others, the affairs of the kingdom
had on the whole prospered. The abuses of the government of Ptolemy IV
had been corrected, revolts had been crushed, and important reforms in
the administration of the Army and Navy had taken place. The King had
spent his royal revenues lavishly on behalf of the State and his people,
he had abolished many taxes and substantially reduced others, he had
given bounties to every grade in the Army, he had restored law and order
in the country, and had restored all the ancient rites and privileges
and revenues of the priests, and had shown himself to be pious and a
devout worshipper of all the gods of his country. All these facts were
universally admitted.

One of the first acts of the priests was to celebrate the ancient Set
Festival, i.e., the "Festival of the Tail." This Festival was celebrated
every thirty years, or after any very great event, or whenever the King
wished to obtain a renewal of his life from the gods, and the physical
and spiritual power to rule with justice and righteousness, the highly
symbolic ceremonies of this Festival being duly performed according to
ancient use and wont. This solemn Office having been performed, the
Council of Priests proceeded to review the good works which the boy King
had performed, and they decided that the services which he had rendered
to Egypt and to the clergy and laity were so valuable that additional
honours should be paid to him in all the principal temples of the
country. They then drafted in Greek a Decree in which the good deeds of
the King and the honours which they proposed to pay him were carefully
enumerated. They further ordered that a copy of it, together with
translations, written both in the modern language and script of Egypt
(i.e. in Demotic or, New Egyptian), and in the ancient language and
script (i.e. the hieroglyphs or, Old Egyptian) should be engraved upon a
tablet of hard stone, and set up in every temple of the first, second
and third class in Egypt. This Decree, as found on the Rosetta Stone, is
dated on the fourth day of the Greek month Xandikos = the eighteenth day
of the second month (Mechis) of the Egyptian season of Per-T = March 27,
196 B.C.
=====

Year 2000

APL Singapore Simulates Y2K Emergency

However, Los Angeles survived

ABOARD THE APL SINGAPORE - At 4:58 Tuesday morning, in the foggy
solitude of San Pedro Bay off the Southern California coast, a two-way
radio started squawking in the engine control room of this 64,000-ton
cargo ship with an alarming message from the captain: ''Ron, the engine
is not responding.''
That same instant, a piercing klaxon and a series of flashing lights
alerted Chief Engineer Ron Gerde to the crisis at hand: The Singapore,
hauling 1,109 massive steel containers stuffed with everything from
tennis shoes made in Malaysia to stereo equipment from Taiwan, had hit a
digital iceberg.

A Year 2000 computer glitch had crashed a critical electronic system
that controls engine thrust, causing the vessel, whose bow-to-stern
measurement exceeds the length of three football fields, to head
uncontrollably toward the Port of Los Angeles.

This time, though, the computer failure was only a simulation. The
Singapore's owner, APL Ltd., was staging this emergency at the behest of
the U.S. Coast Guard. The drill, the first in a series of port
inspections across the United States, illustrates a new focus in Year
2000 mobilization.

Many businesses and government agencies are in the home stretch in
repairing and testing their computer systems. They have done everything
they can to become ''Y2K-compliant.'' But suppose that is not enough?
Facing the prospect of computer crashes despite all of their
preparation, they are staging elaborate simulations to get ready for the
worst.

On Tuesday, Mr. Gerde and his staff faced the daunting task of
demonstrating that the Singapore, which has computer systems rivaling
those of an airplane, could hastily operate the old-fashioned way.

They would have to communicate with the captain, standing six decks
above on the bridge, with a nonelectric telephone. They would have to
descend into the depths of the engine bay and use an antiquated crank to
slow down the ship. They would have to rely on analog gauges and paper
charts instead of the sophisticated computer images they use now.

With that challenge ahead, Mr. Gerde radioed up: ''We're going to take
control down here.''

Like many large businesses, the Singapore already has tested its
computer systems for Y2K problems. On Friday, for instance, while the
vessel was leaving Seattle, its veteran captain, Jon Harrison, ordered
that the master clock be rolled forward to 11:50 P.M. on Dec. 31. Ten
minutes later, ''nothing happened,'' he said.

Despite the positive test results, the Coast Guard wants to make sure
ships are ready for any unforeseen problems that might arise on Jan. 1.

''Rolling the clocks forward doesn't guarantee that a system will work
just fine in the new year,'' said Coast Guard Rear Admiral George
Naccara, who supervised Tuesday's drill. ''You have got to be able to
deal with the contingency that your computers won't work - and you need
to practice how you'll react to that.''

Government and industry officials acknowledge that their contingency
efforts, which assume worst-case scenarios, could breed a fear of severe
social and economic disruptions at the year's end. As a result, many
organizations, particularly federal agencies, have been reluctant to
disclose their plans publicly.

''There is a public perception issue,'' said Stephen Frycki, the
managing director of Y2K services at DMR Consulting Group Inc. in
Edison, New Jersey. ''But eventually people will realize that these
efforts are intended to ensure that daily life can continue like normal
even if something does happen.''

The Year 2000 problem stems from the fact that millions of electronic
devices, from mainframe computers that process payroll checks to heart
monitors in hospital intensive-care units, were programmed to recognize
only the last two digits of a year and to assume that the first two
would be 1 and 9. When Jan. 1, 2000, arrives, unprepared machines will
understand the year ''00'' not as 2000 but 1900, potentially causing
them stop working properly.

Aboard the Singapore, Captain Harrison feels confident that Y2K will
create barely a ripple for him. Most of the ship's computers, though
they rely on time-related data, do not have a running clock that tracks
the year.

And they all have been checked, with small green ''Y2K'' stickers placed
on them to indicate compliance. Nevertheless, the Coast Guard and APL
agreed that it would be prudent to emphasize ''manual work-arounds''
should they be needed.

So, in the early-morning darkness, 3 miles (5 kilometers) off the Los
Angeles coast, the Singapore went through the motions. The simulation
was a failure of the ''engine telegraph'' system, a gearshift-like
device in the bridge that lets the ship's officers control the speed.

Normally, a movement of the shifter automatically tells the
67,000-horsepower engine to provide more or less power. This morning,
though, with the vessel gliding along at 5 knots, the Coast Guard
officers on board told Captain Harrison to assume that the system - and
another electronic backup - had crashed. And, they said, he needed to
quickly put the boat in reverse before it entered the busy Los Angeles
harbor.

Though the drill began on the darkened bridge, which towers over the
ship's payload of truck-size containers, the action quickly shifted to
the below-decks engine control room, where Mr. Gerde and three deputies
were getting ready to end a 42-day journey that included stops in
Singapore, Malaysia, China and Taiwan.

After the first alarm sounded, Mr. Gerde reached for the vessel's most
primitive backup means of communication - a ''sound-powered'' phone. The
device, which uses no electricity, is much like two tin cans with a
string connecting them.

''They're going down there now,'' Mr. Gerde reported up to the bridge.
At that moment, the ship's deputy engineer, Vic Raines, and an
electrician flew down two sets of narrow metal stairs to the deafeningly
loud engine bay.

There they dashed toward the pie-size crank, which, after a switch was
flipped and a safety pin was removed, would control the engine speed.

It was a moment in defiance of all the technological marvels on the
13-year-old ship. ''We're bypassing all these computers,'' Mr. Gerde
said gleefully, pointing to two large electronic monitors. Mr. Raines
would be driving the behemoth the way turn-of-the-century engineers did
their coal-fired merchant vessels.

The first priority was to turn the handle counterclockwise to slow the
ship, something Mr. Raines did with ease. Then, an additional command
rumbled over the sound-phone from the captain: ''Slow astern'' - put it
in reverse.

Fifteen seconds later, Mr. Gerde radioed up that the duo in the engine
room had succeeded in reversing the propeller blades.

With that, Captain Harrison told the control room, ''We're finished.''

Admiral Naccara and other Coast Guard officials quickly pronounced
themselves satisfied with the crew's performance.

International Herald Tribune, June 17, 1999


Der Fuhrer Invades Yugoslavia

The KLA: Frankenato's Monster

Another piece of paper


NATO’s decision to exploit the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA) during
Operation Allied Force to maintain pressure on Serbian forces on the
ground is coming back to haunt it.

While Albania helped create the KLA, NATO nurtured it, and now that the
KLA is running amok, NATO must tame or destroy it. Much to NATO’s
chagrin, the KLA did not simply accept NATO control over the province,
lay down its arms, and join the UN sponsored political process. Rather,
seizing the opportunity and the initiative, the KLA has poured into the
province ahead of NATO and on the heels of withdrawing Serbs – filling
the power vacuum and establishing de facto control. KLA forces have
seized control of two border crossing points into Albania, as well as
most of the towns and villages of southern Kosovo including nearly all
of Prizren. The KLA has presented its own "interim government," and has
as yet refused to disarm. Worse, multiple sources report the KLA are
carrying out reprisal attacks against Serbs, burning Serbian homes and
setting in motion a mass exodus of Serbs from the province.

NATO has now reportedly negotiated a settlement with the KLA, whereby
the KLA will be disarmed, though the document will not be signed for
another three days and it is unknown how long the agreement will take to
be carried out after that. In the meantime, NATO continues to explain
its inability to control the KLA and defend ethnic Serbs by arguing that
it does not have sufficient forces in place to control the province. In
fact, refugees report that NATO controls little more than the main roads
to Pristina. And to be more precise, it is not simply that NATO does not
have enough troops to establish a presence throughout Kosovo. NATO does
not have enough troops to confront and forcibly disarm the KLA
throughout Kosovo.

While the KLA has said it may agree to demilitarization, and hand over
its heavy weapons, it has steadfastly refused to give up small arms. And
why should it? As far as the KLA is concerned, it is the victor. NATO
has confirmed this by declaring the Serbs defeated. The KLA fought, with
NATO’s assistance, for an independent Kosova. NATO says it won, and so
the KLA is establishing its independent Kosova. If NATO has different
ideas, what is it going to do, go to war against the KLA?

The problem is, while NATO used the KLA, it did not share the KLA’s
goals. Despite what Serbs believe about Washington’s insidious desire
for a Greater Albania, for the Clinton administration, Kosovo was little
more than a clumsy and distracted attempt to avoid the same condemnation
it received for failing to respond to claims of genocide in Rwanda. Now
it is caught in the potential hypocrisy of presiding over a reverse
ethnic cleansing in Kosovo and the redrawing of the map of the region
along ethnic lines. And even if mysterious dark forces in Washington
have somehow duped the naïve Stratfor on this count, and Clinton
actually flies the KLA flag in his bedroom, they have not changed the
fact that NATO is not merely the U.S. It also includes countries like
Greece and Italy, who with aspiring NATO member Macedonia are appalled
at the prospect of either a KLA-dominated independent Kosova or a
Greater Albania.

The KLA is a monumental problem for NATO, with the potential to divide
and discredit the alliance more deeply than the bombing campaign. Not
only can NATO politically not afford to live down to Belgrade’s claims
that it was truly fighting to dismember Serbia, nor abide the Serbian
and Russian military responses to a de facto KLA "victory," its
individual members can not tolerate such a dismemberment or victory
either. That said, NATO has now been presented with the prospect that
the ground casualties it sought so hard to avoid sustaining will come,
not from the Serbs, but from uncooperative Kosovar Albanians.

Stratfor's Commentary, June 16, 1999


Oil Market

Oil Prices Surge

Americans buy gasoline


Oil prices hit a 17-month high yesterday amid fresh evidence of
continuing strong demand for gasoline in the US, the world's biggest oil
market.


The bellwether August Brent futures contract reached $17.17 a barrel at
midday before slipping to $16.90 in late trading on London's
International Petroleum Exchange, 3 cents up on Tuesday's close.


Oil prices have risen by about $6 a barrel this year, mainly in response
to production cuts by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries
(Opec) and other leading oil producers.


The market's belief that Opec is generally complying with the latest
cuts is the main reason prices continue to rise, although energy
economists say it will take some months to erode the stock overhang that
was one of the main contributors to last year's oil price collapse.


Peter Davies, chief economist at BP Amoco, said yesterday that any
declines in global stock levels in the second quarter of the year were
probably "very small". But if the Opec cuts held through the rest of the
year "the decline will accelerate".


Speaking at a London presentation of BP Amoco's annual statistical
review of world energy, Mr Davies said the global oil industry remained
in a "supply push world" in which cost-cutting and technological
advances prevailed.


Although non-Opec production was flat last year and may decline in 1999,
Mr Davies dismissed suggestions that non-Opec supply had peaked. Opec
still faced the challenge of managing oil markets "in a world of
plenty", he said.


Although there is evidence of a "tentative recovery" of Asian oil
consumption, Mr Davies said it was unlikely that oil demand growth in
the region would return to the very high levels seen before the crisis.


He identified several long-term trends that continue to affect world
energy markets. Supplies of energy are "more than adequate" on a global
basis, even though world energy prices continue to decline. Coal is
continuing to lose market share to natural gas, while the growth of
nuclear power has receded, with more nuclear plants being shut last year
than were commissioned.


World energy demand fell by 0.1 per cent last year, the first fall since
1982. In China the decline was 3.2 per cent, with lower coal consumption
accounting for virtually all of the fall. Energy consumption in North
America and Europe was flat.


The decline in energy consumption led to the first fall in world carbon
emissions (excluding the former Soviet Union) since 1982.

The Financial Times, June 17, 1999
-----
Aloha, He'Ping,
Om, Shalom, Salaam.
Em Hotep, Peace Be,
Omnia Bona Bonis,
All My Relations.
Adieu, Adios, Aloha.
Amen.
Roads End
Kris

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