-Caveat Lector- > VISIT OUR NEW INTELLIGENCE CENTERS > http://www.stratfor.com/ > ______________________________________ > STRATFOR's > Global Intelligence Update > July 1, 1999 > > Greece Announces Pending Defense Pact with Iran and Armenia > > Summary: > > Greece and Iran have announced that they intend to sign a > tripartite military cooperation agreement, along with Armenia, as > early as July 12. Such an agreement would seriously undermine > NATO unity and strategy in the Balkans and the Caucasus, > exacerbate tensions between Greece and Turkey, isolate Azerbaijan > and Georgia and, by extension, Central Asia, and provide Russia > with a tremendous lever against NATO. As all involved intended, > it is not something NATO can ignore. > > Analysis: > > Addressing reporters in Tehran on June 28, Greek Defense Minister > Apostolos-Athanasios Tsokhatzopoulos announced that Greece, Iran, > and Armenia would soon sign a defense cooperation agreement, with > the goal of creating peace and stability in the region. The deal > will reportedly be signed at the three countries' first > trilateral defense meeting in Athens on July 12. Tsokhatzopoulos > emphasized that military cooperation with Iran was based on the > fundamental principles of international law and a shared interest > in regional peace and security, and was not directed at any other > country. He also added that his visit, the first to Iran by an > EU or NATO defense minister since 1979, was not as a > representative of NATO. Tsokhatzopoulos, who is in Iran on a four > day visit at the invitation of his Iranian counterpart Vice > Admiral Ali Shamkhani, has reportedly met with Iranian President > Mohammad Khatami and Majlis Speaker Ali Akhbar Nateq Nuri. > > While Tsokhatzopoulos' statement has been widely reported in the > Iranian and Greek press, the Greek defense attache's office and > the political section at the Greek embassy in Washington declined > to comment on the report. Eventually, a press officer at the > embassy insisted that the July 12 meeting should involve only > discussions of general issues concerning cooperation and claimed > that he had no further information on the reported defense pact. > An official at the Armenian embassy claimed no knowledge of the > reported defense pact plans. He insisted that, while Armenia, > Greece, Georgia, and Iran had met to promote regional economic > cooperation, and while Armenia had a defense agreement with > Greece, he knew of no plans for such an agreement with Iran. A > press officer at the U.S. State Department said the department > had issued no official statement on the reported Greek-Armenian- > Iranian military pact. > > Greece has a long history of relations with Iran and has > accelerated development of ties with both Iran and Armenia in the > last few years. Greece was one of the first countries to send a > defense attache to post-Soviet Armenia, and Greek officers have > assisted in the development of the Armenian military since 1992. > In June 1996, Greece signed a defense cooperation agreement with > Armenia, a move condemned by Ankara as pointedly anti-Turkey. > The first meeting of experts on trilateral cooperation between > Greece, Armenia, and Iran occurred in August of 1995. A second > meeting occurred in December of 1996, at which time deputy > foreign ministers from the three countries and Georgia signed a > memorandum of understanding on cooperation in the economic, > industrial, scientific, and technical arenas. At that time, the > deputy foreign ministers rejected any notion of military security > cooperation between their countries. > > A series of committee and ministerial level meetings between > Greece, Iran, and Armenia continued through 1997 and 1998, > promoting cooperation in economic and commercial fields, and > establishing joint commissions on transport, postal service, > telecommunications, tourism, industry, technology, economics, and > energy. Officials from the three countries continued to insist > that the goal of their ties was to promote regional peace and > cooperation, and that their tripartite cooperation was neither > targeted at a particular country, nor exclusive of relations with > other countries. Meetings on economic cooperation continued into > 1999, with Greek Deputy Foreign Minister Grigoris Niotis calling > in May for Georgia to join in Greek-Iranian-Armenian trilateral > cooperation. > > Tsokhatzopoulos' announcement that the trilateral cooperation > between Greece, Iran, and Armenia would be expanded from the > economic arena to include security and defense cooperation is a > political bombshell, setting the stage for dramatic shifts in a > number of regional alignments. First and foremost, the claim > that this defense pact is not directed at any country is patent > nonsense. Explicitly intended as such or not, Ankara can only > view a new military alignment of its traditional foes Greece, > Armenia, and Iran -- with Russia as a silent partner -- as a > clear and present danger to Turkey. The agreement also raises > concerns in Azerbaijan, which remains in conflict with Armenia > over the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave and which has blamed Iran for > backing an assassination plot against President Heydar Aliyev. > > The defense pact between Iran, strongly Russian-backed Armenia, > and NATO member Greece, and the tacit threat it poses to NATO > member Turkey, is a slap in the face of NATO. Greece has tried to > warn both NATO and Ankara of its concerns by building cooperation > with Russia. That was not enough, so it is moving on to Iran. > Greece was incensed that NATO not only ignored its security > concerns regarding Kosovo, but in fact exacerbated the threat > faced by Greece. Thanks to NATO's intervention, Greece finds > itself between a nascent Greater Albania and Turkey, which before > and since the crisis has grown increasingly involved with > supporting the Albanian military. Turkey assisted Albania in > rebuilding the naval base at Pashaliman and in developing the > Naval Academy at Vlore. Turkish commandos are currently training > Albania's Republican Guard. During meetings with top Albanian > officials on June 17 and 18, the Turkish Army's Director General > for Logistics, Maj. Gen. Dursun Bak, reiterated Turkey's > commitment to cooperation with the Albanian Army and vowed that > it will remain at the top of Turkey's list for assistance. > > For Iran, Athens' desire for military cooperation offers a handy > lever in its relations with the West. Tehran always likes to > maintain a balanced international position by having lots of > irons in the fire. Iran's read of its strategic situation is that > it remains a strategic asset to a lot of people so long as it > does not get locked down in any exclusive alignment. The current > Iranian regime read the Shah's mistake as his locked down foreign > policy. Thus its entry into one relationship is merely the > preface for opening the door for another relationship. Therefore, > there is never a final Iranian position. On the other hand, > Tehran is very much in favor of strategic groupings that do not > preclude other relationships. For Iran, the nice thing about > Greece's overture is not that it torpedoes Iran's relationship > with the U.S., but that it puts the U.S. in the position of > suitor. Now the U.S. must do something to loosen up the situation > -- as must Turkey. > > For Yerevan, aligning with Iran and Greece not only makes it > makes Armenia a bridge between the Greco-Iranian group and > Russia, but in doing so focuses NATO's attention on its conflict > with Azerbaijan. Clearly Armenia, Greece, and Iran wanted > Georgia in the military grouping, but as Greece went public > without Georgia, it appears Tbilisi is standing firm with its > GUUAM alliance with Azerbaijan, Ukraine, Moldova, and Uzbekistan, > and with its hopes for stronger ties with NATO. Tbilisi does not > see those goals furthered by a military pact with Armenia and > Iran. > > Overall, a tripartite military pact between Greece, Iran, and > Armenia seriously undermines NATO unity and strategy in the > Balkans and the Caucasus. It exacerbates tensions between Greece > and Turkey -- already strained by Turkey's ties to Albania. It > isolates Azerbaijan and Georgia, threatening NATO's strategic and > economic interests in the two countries and in Central Asia. It > provides Russia with a tremendous lever, circumventing NATO's > would-be proxies in the GUUAM organization. It is not something > NATO can ignore. > > STRATFOR, Inc. > 504 Lavaca, Suite 1100 > Austin, TX 78701 > Phone: 512-583-5000 > Fax: 512-583-5025 > Internet: http://www.stratfor.com/ > Email: [EMAIL PROTECTED] DECLARATION & DISCLAIMER ========== CTRL is a discussion and informational exchange list. Proselyzting propagandic screeds are not allowed. Substance—not soapboxing! These are sordid matters and 'conspiracy theory', with its many half-truths, misdirections and outright frauds is used politically by different groups with major and minor effects spread throughout the spectrum of time and thought. That being said, CTRL gives no endorsement to the validity of posts, and always suggests to readers; be wary of what you read. CTRL gives no credeence to Holocaust denial and nazi's need not apply. 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