-Caveat Lector-
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPcap/1999-07/01/048r-070199-idx.html
Bush's Fund-Raising Opens Huge Disparity
Unprecedented Edge May Limit Rivals
By Dan Balz
Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, July 1, 1999+ADs- Page A01
SACRAMENTO, June 30+IBQ-The record-shattering fund-raising performance of Texas
Gov. George W. Bush has created an unprecedented financial disparity with
all of his Republican rivals and likely will severely hamper their ability
to compete for the party's presidential nomination, party officials said
today.
Bush's campaign announced that he has raised +ACQ-36.25 million so far this
year, an amount that far exceeded even the extraordinary expectations that
had been set for his campaign. No one in the history of presidential
campaigns has come close to raising that much money this quickly and no one
has ever raised more during the roughly 18-month nomination cycle than Bush
has raised in less than six months.
Only Steve Forbes, a multimillionaire who is mostly self-financing his
campaign, will have the money to compete with Bush.
Bush's fund-raising report provided more bad news for the campaign of Vice
President Gore. Although he has raised more than +ACQ-18 million so far this
year, Gore's only opponent, former New Jersey senator Bill Bradley, is
raising enough money (more than +ACQ-11 million) to mount a serious primary
challenge.
But in addition, Gore now must worry about a potential GOP rival in Bush who
could start salting money away for the general election earlier than ever
and have more resources for the long war.
The Bush campaign's fund-raising pace makes it a virtual certainty that the
GOP front-runner will decide to forgo federal matching funds in the
primaries, his advisers said. Already, Bush has raised more money than the
estimated +ACQ-33.5 million he could legally spend if accepts matching funds,
and his advisers said he has no intention of returning any money. By
refusing to accept matching funds, Bush could exceed the spending limits in
such important early states as Iowa and New Hampshire, giving him an
additional strategic advantage over most of his rivals.
But Bush's fund-raising prowess also has implications for the general
election, should he become the nominee. Republican nominee Robert J. Dole
was nearly broke by the time he secured the nomination in the spring of 1996
and was significantly outspent by President Clinton's campaign until he
began to receive federal funds later in the summer.
Bush, by refusing matching funds, could continue to raise money after he has
the nomination and use it to start waging the general election campaign.
Gore has decided to accept matching funds, which means he cannot exceed the
overall spending limits. If he wins the nomination, but has spent heavily to
defeat Bradley, he could face the same problem Dole confronted four years
ago.
Gore deputy campaign chairman Marla Romash dismissed that concern, calling
Bush's contributions +ACI-blank checks for a blank slate.+ACI- She added, +ACI-We
remain
very confident we'll have the resources we need to win in the primary season
and win the general election.+ACI- Other Democrats, however, said Gore may need
to rethink whether to accept federal funds.
But it will be Bush's GOP rivals who feel the immediate impact of the
fund-raising disparity.
The Bush campaign for weeks would only hint at the record it was about to
set. On Tuesday, GOP officials who knew the figures told reporters that Bush
would raise +ACI-more than +ACQ-23 million.+ACI- By Wednesday, when they revealed the
record +ACQ-36.25 million, Bush fund-raisers insisted they had not been coyly
trying to lower expectations. +ACI-There's nothing Machiavellian here,+ACI- one
said.
Even after expecting the worst, officials in other campaigns sounded
overwhelmed when they heard the news. +ACI-Oh my God, that's breathtaking,+ACI- said
Tom Rath, a top adviser to former Tennessee governor Lamar Alexander. +ACI-What
are you going to say? That's phenomenal.+ACI-
Whether Bush's huge financial support translates into the same level of
political support is the next challenge for his campaign. He has scores of
endorsements from elected officials, but the voters have yet to be heard
from. The first test will come Aug. 14 at a non-binding straw poll sponsored
by the Iowa Republican Party. The other campaigns will be feeling as much or
more pressure to demonstrate their viability at the Iowa straw poll. They
face major obstacles as they attempt to build support in the face of Bush's
vastly superior resources.
The only other Republican in the race with the money to match Bush is
magazine publisher Forbes. Bush campaign officials long have regarded Forbes
as a serious threat, primarily because they know he will have the resources
to run television ads aimed at the governor in the same way he attacked --
and permanently damaged -- Dole in the 1996 primaries.
+ACI-I think it clearly gets narrowed down more and more to a one-on-one race,+ACI-
Forbes campaign manager Bill Dal Col said. +ACI-It will be a conservative,
Reagan wing versus the Bush wing. . . . We're going to be the idea candidate
running on the outside.+ACI- Forbes, however, remains in single digits in most
polls of GOP voters, and other Republicans said that, despite his money,
Forbes must demonstrate his political viability.
For the rest of Bush's rivals, the fund-raising gap reflects part of Bush's
strategy to close out the nomination as early as possible.
Former vice president Dan Quayle tried to use humor to deflect Bush's news.
+ACI-George W. Bush's fund-raising total sounds a lot like prosperity without a
purpose,+ACI- he said, referring to a line Bush uses in speeches.
Ari Fleischer, Elizabeth Dole's spokesman, said Bush's financial advantage
does not lessen the importance of success in Iowa and New Hampshire. +ACI-One of
the geniuses of the system is it starts with small states. If this started
with California, it might be over,+ACI- he said. +ACI-Voters in Iowa and New
Hampshire don't want thousand-dollar givers to in effect become the first
primary.+ACI-
Dole hit the airwaves today, insisting on NBC's +ACI-Today+ACI- that she is +ACI-going
to be in the race +AFs-and+AF0- I'm in it to win.+ACI- She promised an official
announcement in the fall.
Howard Opinsky, spokesman for Sen. John McCain (Ariz.), said Bush's
financial advantage creates competition among the rest to become the
alternative. +ACI-I don't think all of them will be able to survive,+ACI- Opinsky
said, although he was confident McCain would.
Bush said today he was +ACI-humbled+ACI- by the size of his campaign bank account.
+ACI-As you can imagine, I'm amazed at the outpouring of support. This is a
campaign that has gotten a wide range of people willing to help, people from
all around the country.+ACI-
How did he explain it, he was asked? +ACI-A wonderful personality,+ACI- he joked.
Then he described the response he had received Tuesday campaigning at a
county fair in San Diego. +ACI-People are hungry for something,+ACI- he said. +ACI-I'm
gratified. It's beyond expectations.+ACI-
Bush was asked whether he favored changes in a campaign finance system that
has left many Americans disillusioned with politics. He said he favored
instant disclosure of contributions and elimination of unlimited +ACI-soft
money+ACI- contributions by labor unions and corporations to the national
political parties. Bush said he would not restrict individuals' ability to
make contributions to parties.
Forbes immediately challenged Bush +ACI-to return any and all PAC and special
interest money. What George Bush has proven today is not that he can raise
money, but that he is inextricably tied to Washington lobbyists and special
interests.+ACI-
Staff writer Susan Glasser and staff researcher Ben White in Washington
contributed to this report.
+AKk- Copyright 1999 The Washington Post Company
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