-Caveat Lector- ------- Forwarded Message Follows ------- Date sent: Mon, 19 Jul 1999 09:09:56 -0500 To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] From: "John C. Goodman" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Subject: NCPA Policy Digest 7-19-99 National Center For Policy Analysis DAILY POLICY DIGEST Monday, July 19, 1999 PointCast can automatically load NCPA's Policy Digest summaries on your desktop for easy reading. For information go to http://www.ncpa.org/pointcast.html IN TODAY'S DIGEST o ARCHER'S TAX CUTS AMOUNT TO JUST 0.7 PERCENT OF U.S. OUTPUT, say analysts, and if anything are too small....NCPA o TAX CREDITS COULD SOLVE THE UNINSURED PROBLEM by extending coverage to the self-employed....NATIONAL JOURNAL o "SUCCESS FOR ALL" PHONICS READING PROGRAM WORKS for disadvantaged children, according to recent studies....WALL STREET JOURNAL o CLOTHING PRICES ROSE 13 PERCENT, WHILE OVERALL PRICES ROSE 34 PERCENT in the 1990s, indicating new clothes are affordable....NEW YORK TIMES o U.S. VIOLENT AND PROPERTY CRIME RATES FELL IN 1998, reaching the lowest level recorded in 25 years....USA TODAY o FEWER TAXPAYERS ARE USING THE CAMPAIGN FINANCE CHECK-OFF, and presidential candidates may not receive all their matching funds this year....WASHINGTON TIMES o WEST VIRGINIA PASSED FLORIDA IN HAVING THE HIGHEST MEDIAN AGE of any state, at 38.6 years....NEW YORK TIMES o THE SEATTLE MARINERS' SAFECO FIELD COST $517 MILLION, and taxpayers are being asked to pick up a $100 million cost overrun....NEW YORK TIMES IN TODAY'S NEWS LIBERALS REACT TO THE ARCHER TAX CUT PLAN Last week, House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Bill Archer (R-Texas) began to move an $864 billion tax reduction through his committee. Within hours, the union-backed Citizens for Tax Justice had calculated that the top one percent of taxpayers would get 46.1 percent of the tax relief and the lowest 60 percent would get a mere 7.2 percent. This ignores most provisions except those benefiting the rich. It ignores the impact on jobs and economic growth, and exaggerates the effect of cutting the capital gains tax. The liberal Center on Budget and Policy Priorities charged the plan would reduce revenues by $2.8 trillion in the second 10 years after passage. This makes assumptions far outside the normal budget estimation period, and fails to put the numbers into context. GDP over the 2010 to 2019 period will amount to $173 trillion, using the Center's methodology. Between 2000 and 2009 the tax cuts amount to just 0.7 percent of GDP (see figure http://www.ncpa.org/pd/gif/pd71999.gif). Finally, Louis Uchitelle in the New York Times argues tax cuts will be too stimulative, potentially stoking inflation. He quoted several recent and former Federal Reserve officials to the effect that tax cuts will require the Fed to raise interest rates, which will cause the stock market to crash. This argument is based on Keynesianism, which views budget deficits as economically stimulative. But if true, it really argues in favor of an even bigger tax cut because if deficits are stimulative, then surpluses must be depressing. The Archer plan would only reduce the total budget surplus by 2.8 percent the first year, rising to 24.5 percent by the fifth year. Even at its highest point, in the year 2009, there will still be an annual surplus of more than $200 billion. Source: Bruce Bartlett, senior fellow, National Center for Policy Analysis, July 19, 1999. For text http://www.ncpa.org/oped/bartlett99.html For more on Current Tax Legislation http://www.ncpa.org/pi/congress/cong2.html TAX CREDITS COULD SOLVE UNINSURED PROBLEM The problem of the growing uninsured population has sparked bipartisan interest in Washington to use some form of health care tax credits, according to observers. Questions to be addressed include whether the tax credit should go to those who get employer-sponsored health insurance as well as to low-income people, and how Congress should pay for a tax credit program. NCPA President Dr. John C. Goodman and the Health Insurance Association of America have proposed a plan in which the federal government would take the subsidies it currently dispenses to offset the private sector's costs of caring for the uninsured and redirect them. Goodman notes that: o Federal and state governments spend $41.8 billion every year on a variety of programs, but the money could be used to cover the uninsured. o For example, the government gives $9.2 billion a year through Medicare and Medicaid to hospitals whose patient populations include a disproportionately high number of people without insurance. o Fewer uninsured patients -- or none at all -- would make those payments unnecessary. Goodman's plan would give every American access to health insurance by offering a tax credit to those who can't get insurance through the workplace and providing a state-run safety net program for those who choose to remain uninsured. Source: Marilyn Werber Serafini, "One in Six, and Counting," and "A Dozen Key Players," National Journal, July 17, 1999. For more on Health issues http://www.ncpa.org/pi/health/hedex1.html "SUCCESS FOR ALL" PROGRAM IS EFFECTIVE A reading program designed by an education researcher at Johns Hopkins University has become the most popular method in the country for improving troubled schools, according to reports. Developed by Robert Slavin, it is seen as a setback to the "empowerment" quest of teachers who demand to design their own curriculum. Under the plan, students are placed in small reading groups of 15 or so according to their abilities rather than age. Every first- grader learns to read from a series of 48 black-and-white paperback storybooks published by Success for All -- each of which stresses a different phonic sound. Beginning readers spend a lot of time reading in unison and those who don't learn must repeat classes. Starting at age six, they are also tested every eight weeks to determine whether they move to the next skill level. Those who fail get 20 minutes a day with individual tutors until they master the skill. Students also get a prescribed amount of time each day working in teams, so as to use peer pressure in learning. o The American Institute for Research has identified Success for All as one of only three school-overhaul plans whose student-achievement gains were verified by solid research. o A University of Memphis study of elementary schools in Ft. Wayne, Ind., found that those using Slavin's methods referred just 3.2 percent of their students from kindergarten through second-grade to special education -- compared to 14.3 percent in a comparable school. o A University of Tennessee study concluded that Memphis schools using Success for All did 25 percent better than had been predicted, based on poverty levels, on a state- wide assessment test. o The New Jersey Supreme Court has ordered all of the state's most troubled schools to adopt Success for All within three years or explain why they were picking another program. Success for All will be used in 1,700 elementary schools this fall -- up from 1,130 last year. Almost all of these are Title I schools -- entitled to extra funding because they have many disadvantaged students. Source: William M. Bulkeley, "Now Johnny Can Read if Teacher Just Keeps Doing What He is Told," Wall Street Journal, July 19, 1999. For more on Reading http://www.ncpa.org/pi/edu/edu5.html#a CLOTHING PURCHASES INDICATE PROSPERITY Americans have been buying -- and casting off -- mountains of clothing, just one more indicator of the booming U.S. economy. One result is that tons of clothes, some with the price tags still attached, are being left off at Salvation Army centers and other charity operations. Clothing has become increasingly affordable, not having kept up with inflation. So fewer Americans are making or mending their wardrobes anymore. This has prompted the Bureau of Labor Statistics to move sewing machines from the category of "apparel and upkeep" to "recreation." o Americans bought 17.2 billion articles of clothing in 1998 -- a 16 percent increase over 1993. o Clothing prices have risen just 13 percent in a decade, while the average for all consumer goods rose 34 percent. o Americans gave the Salvation Army alone several hundred million pieces -- well over 100,000 tons. o The organization culls out the undamaged clothes and gives them to the poor or sells them at thrift shops -- while the remainder are bound into 1,100 lb. bales and sold to rag dealers, who then ship them to countries like Yemen and Senegal. No one in the United States need ever go without being properly dressed, observes a Salvation Army official. Few children will settle for their older siblings cast-offs any more and elementary school principals routinely complain of overflowing lost-and-founds. Clothing recycling has spawned a little-noticed new industry. At Salvation Army centers, welfare recipients are used to sort the clothes and process them -- and then are feed, housed and trained for other work at the organization's rehabilitation operations. Source: Peter T. Kilborn, "Prosperity Builds Mounds of Cast-Off Clothes," New York Times, July 19, 1999. For more on the Standard of Living http://www.ncpa.org/pd/economy/econ2.html VIOLENT CRIME FALLS AGAIN The nation's rate of violent crime and property crimes last year hit their lowest point since the Justice Department started keeping those statistics in 1973. According to the National Crime Victimization Survey conducted by the Bureau of Justice Statistics: o Violent crime rates fell 7 percent last year and overall property crime rates fell 12.5 percent between 1997 and 1998. o U.S. residents age 12 or older were the victims of 31 million violent and property crimes in 1998 -- an 11.4 percent drop from 35 million crimes in 1997. o Since 1993, the violent crime rate has dropped 26 percent -- from 50 per 1,000 people age 12 and older to 37 per 1,000 last year. o Virtually every demographic category of the survey showed a decline in 1998, although minorities and the poor are still not as safe as whites and the wealthy. Source: Gary Fields, "Study Shows Decline in Violent Crime," USA Today, July 19, 1999. For more on Reported Crime Statistics http://www.ncpa.org/pi/crime/crime21.html MOST AMERICANS DON'T WANT TAX MONEY GOING TO CAMPAIGNS Officials at the Federal Election Commission say they are having a hard time making ends meet. Most Americans are refusing to check the box on their federal income tax form to divert $3 of their taxes to help candidates finance their presidential campaigns. The FEC announcement was made prior to Texas Gov. George W. Bush's announcement that he would not accept federal matching funds for his primary campaign. So FEC is reworking its figures. o Absent the Bush decision, candidates would have received only 32 to 40 cents on the dollar in time for the primaries. o The balance of the money wouldn't have been available until 2001 -- long after the race was over. o In 1997, only 12.5 percent of taxpayers checked the option -- down from 28.7 percent in 1980. o Since the Treasury Department requires the FEC to give top priority to the nominating conventions and the general election, funds must be set aside before the primaries even though contributions from 1999 tax returns have yet to be figured in. Critics of public funding say the declining percentage of taxpayers willing to contribute to the fund shows that Americans do not support public funding. The FEC did focus-group studies in the early 1990s to determine why taxpayers weren't checking the box -- but reached no conclusive answers. Source: Laura R. Vanderkam, "Fewer Tax Form Check-Offs Jeopardize Campaign Funds," Washington Times, July 19, 1999. For more on Federal Elections Commission http://www.ncpa.org/pd/govern/govern2.html IN OTHER NEWS WEST VIRGINIANS SURPASS FLORIDIANS IN AGE The median age of West Virginia residents has climbed above that of Florida -- long known as the retirement center of the nation. Experts speculate that there is an intrinsic bond in the Appalachian culture between people and their land, which is now drawing them back to their native state for retirement. o For 1998, the median age of West Virginians has been estimated at 38.6 years, the oldest in the nation -- up from 35.3 in 1990. o For Floridians, it is 38.3 years -- up from 36.2 in 1990. o Runners-up for the oldest populations are Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Montana and Maine -- where the median age is between 37.4 and 37.7 years. o Utah leads the list of states with the youngest populations at 26.7 years -- followed by Alaska, Texas, California and Idaho. While the elderly now account for 15 of every 100 West Virginia citizens, the trend is expected to continue upward during the first quarter of the new century to 25 per 100. Source: Francis X. Clines, "West Virginia, Home of the Gray in America," New York Times, July 17, 1999. For more on Demographic Trends http://www.ncpa.org/pd/social/social1.html TAXPAYERS RAISING PROTESTS OVER STADIUM DEALS The opening of Safeco Field in Seattle last Thursday was met by protests, legal threats and a growing squall over how much the public should pay for stadiums that enrich private owners. o Costing $517 million, Safeco Field -- the new home of the Seattle Mariners' baseball team -- is the most costly single-sport stadium ever built in North America. o The ownership group, which includes Microsoft billionaires, had promised to cover all cost overruns on the new park. o The public thought its share of the cost would be $372 million until the owners stunned even the team's strongest supporters by asking taxpayers to pick up most of a cost overrun which totaled $100 million. o Safeco Field also has the dubious distinction of being the first ballpark built with public money after voters defeated a nonbinding referendum and refused to pay for it. Stadiums scheduled to open in Milwaukee next year and Pittsburgh in 2001 are also being built with tax dollars even though the public voted overwhelmingly against using public money in their construction. "I think the public is at its limit," says Thomas M. Finneran, the Speaker of the Massachusetts House of Representatives, who led a fight to curb the amount his state would pay to keep the New England Patriots from moving to Connecticut. Finneran says that "more and more, people are saying enough of this kind of corporate welfare. And I think the sports owners asked for the backlash," by making exorbitant demands. Source: Timothy Egan, "What Price the Most Expensive Diamond of All?" New York Times, July 17, 1999. 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