-Caveat Lector- © 1999 WorldNetDaily.com World watchers agree: Countries seeking to undermine the will of U.S. foreign policy often make blustery, albeit empty, statements that they "are determined to do XYZ" if the United States does "XYZ" first. It happened all the time during the Cold War, when the U.S. and USSR maneuvered for influence in several parts of the world, often simultaneously. But the predictable nature of those days is over, and the new U.S. nemesis -- China -- is a horse of a different color, no pun intended. Since Taiwan's government unilaterally declared that Taipei and Beijing should be considered by other world leaders as "two different states," the latter has been making loud grumbling noises and suggesting that force may have to be used in order to "bring Taiwan to its senses." According to the most recent analyses of the situation that I've read, I believe the confidence the U.S. is exuding in its belief that Beijing will not directly attack Taiwan in some manner is false bravado. China may have no choice. After all, China's leaders thrive on the perception that they are ultimately in control of China's destiny. If that notion is ever destroyed, it's lights out for the communist regime. Having said that, I do agree that mounting a full-fledged, D-Day-like invasion of Taiwan by naval elements of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) is, by all estimates, beyond China's technical capabilities. Everybody knows that -- the U.S., China and Taiwan. But there clearly are a number of other options left to the Chinese that can be used; the question remains, will China choose to use them and if so, will the U.S. be forced into a confrontation with China? It is ominous that China has already begun mobilizing a huge force of some 500,000 soldiers -- mostly reservists and former soldiers -- in their Fujian province, the province closest to Taiwan. Land, air and sea exercises have begun, and the PLA has even deployed elements of their "Delta Force" -- the Flying Tigers -- to the province as well. And China has the ability to shower Taiwan with ballistic missiles in numbers no one is sure about. Considering the trouble China has internally with Tibet and Muslims in its Xinjiang province; considering China's faltering economic situation; considering China's belief that the Taiwan "declaration" and ensuing U.S. show of force in the region with a pledge to defend Taiwan; and considering China's perception that the U.S. is bent on pulling another Kosovo at Beijing's expense, the PLA indeed may have to be used in order to prove to Chinese citizens that the old men are still in charge and mean what they say. Most Chinese already agree, regardless of other factors, that the best legacy left by Mao Zedong was the fact that he drove all foreigners out of China (except the British and they left Hong Kong per a treaty agreement), allowing the world's most populous nation the sovereignty it always sought. Any move seen to disrupt this solidarity is, in essence, an affront on all Chinese, regardless of whether or not it is true. Under this auspice, I believe, lies the heart of a coming conflict with China over, among other things, Taiwan. But wait, you say -- isn't President Bill Clinton China's "boy?" Isn't he beholden first to Beijing, then to Washington? Perhaps he is, or, rather, was, when he needed their cash to stay in the White House. But those days are over and besides, who's to say China didn't use Clinton (for access to vital U.S. technology) more than Clinton used China? Clinton's hand may very well be forced to order the defense of Taiwan anyway because, as one U.S. official recently put it, America is on "autopilot" regarding its pledge to defend Taipei. Whether China merely assaults a couple of islands controlled by Taiwan, as it has suggested, or tries to block some Taiwanese shipping or lobs missiles at over 200 military targets Beijing has identified on the island over the past several weeks, I believe it is a mistake to think the Chinese government has no vested interest in attacking Taiwan. They have to save face with an increasingly anxious population that cannot be allowed to see any sign of weakness in the leadership. What Beijing's leaders don't know -- and can't know until after the fact -- is what our response will be. Neither country, however, can afford a long, protracted and bloody conflict because there are too many variables -- North Korea, the Middle East, and our own domestic computer problems -- that are more pressing. Even Russia, for what it's worth, is a variable here since they have mutual cooperation agreements with China. For all our intelligence agencies know, China may be counting on/waiting for any one of these other situations to manifest before they make their move. But as sure as you're reading this, I believe they will make that move eventually. Do you agree? I also believe it would be a mistake because in the end, U.S. forces would clean their Chinese clocks, no question about it. But at what cost? And are we willing to pay it? Should we even have to pay it? Now might be a good time for a couple of things. First, if you're so inclined to do (and I hope you are) you might want to pray this doesn't escalate. Second, if you're so inclined to do (and I hope you are) you might want to get on the horn to your elected representatives and plead with them to think before they act in this situation. Better now than after the shooting starts. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---- Jon E. Dougherty is a contributing editor to WorldNetDaily. DECLARATION & DISCLAIMER ========== CTRL is a discussion and informational exchange list. Proselyzting propagandic screeds are not allowed. Substance—not soapboxing! These are sordid matters and 'conspiracy theory', with its many half-truths, misdirections and outright frauds is used politically by different groups with major and minor effects spread throughout the spectrum of time and thought. That being said, CTRL gives no endorsement to the validity of posts, and always suggests to readers; be wary of what you read. CTRL gives no credeence to Holocaust denial and nazi's need not apply. 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