-Caveat Lector-

             U.S. Wasn't Sure Plant Had Nerve Gas Role
             Before Sudan Strike, CIA Urged More Tests

             By Vernon Loeb
             Washington Post Staff Writer
             Saturday, August 21, 1999; Page A01

             One month before the United States bombed the El Shifa
             pharmaceutical plant in Sudan, CIA analysts said more
             testing would be needed before they could firmly
             conclude that the plant was producing a key component
             of deadly VX nerve gas, as the Clinton administration
             maintained on the night of the strike.

             The bombing, one year ago this week, has led to a
             lawsuit by the plant's owner, an embarrassing series of
             retractions by top U.S. officials, and an increasingly
             pressing question: Just how certain does the government
             need to be before it uses force against a suspected
             terrorist group overseas?

             The Clinton administration continues to defend the
             airstrike, which killed a night watchman and destroyed
             the pharmaceutical factory in Khartoum, Sudan's capital.
             But senior officials now concede that the plant did, in
             fact, make some medicines. They also acknowledge that
             it may not have manufactured chemical weapons -- at
             least at the time of the bombing.

             President Clinton ordered the missile strike in retaliation
             for Saudi millionaire Osama bin Laden's alleged role as
             the mastermind in the terrorist bombing of two U.S.
             embassies on Aug. 7, 1998. The twin truck bombs in
             Kenya and Tanzania killed more than 200 people,
             including 12 Americans.

             To strike back, U.S. Navy ships fired 13 Tomahawk
             cruise missiles at El Shifa and 66 missiles at bin Laden's
             training camps in Afghanistan. The attack was timed to
             coincide with a meeting of bin Laden's key operatives at
             one of the camps.

             Since the attack, senior administration officials have
             stood behind what they continue to describe as a
             "compelling" piece of evidence: a soil sample, secretly
             obtained near the El Shifa site by a CIA operative, that
             was found to contain a high concentration of EMPTA, a
             chemical that does not occur in nature and has no use
             except in making nerve gas.

             "Nothing that we've learned subsequent to the attacks has
             led anybody to [conclude], if they had to do it over
             again, that they would make a different decision," one
             senior administration official said this week.

             However, in a three-page analytical paper written late
             last July, well before the embassy bombings or the
             retaliatory targeting of El Shifa, CIA analysts raised
             questions about what conclusions could safely be drawn
             from the soil sample.

             According to officials familiar with the paper, the CIA
             analysts considered the presence of EMPTA to be a
             virtually sure-fire indicator that the plant had something
             to do with chemical weapons. But they could not be sure
             whether the plant actually manufactured VX or merely
             served as a warehouse or transshipment point for
             chemicals used in making nerve gas. Nor could they be
             sure how recently that activity might have occurred.

             The paper, which was reviewed at senior levels in the
             CIA and disseminated to the National Security Council
             staff, recommended covert efforts to obtain more soil
             samples to try to answer those questions.

             Intelligence officials also said in interviews this week
             that even if El Shifa did make nerve gas, they cannot
             explain why a high concentration of EMPTA would have
             been present in the soil outside the plant. EMPTA is a
             viscous substance that is not volatile enough to vaporize,
             and the plant's drainage system is unlikely to have
             deposited effluent in surface soil on its periphery.

             That uncertainty, the officials said, is another reason
             why CIA analysts recommended additional soil sampling  at
             the site last July.

             Still, the intelligence officials played down the
             importance of that recommendation and said CIA
             Director George J. Tenet did not mention any need for
             further testing when he presented senior policymakers
             with a "mosaic" of intelligence to support the targeting
             of El Shifa at a White House briefing on Aug. 17, 1998,
             three days before the U.S. missile strike.

             Tenet's chain of evidence, they said, consisted of:

             Financial records enabling CIA analysts to "follow the
             movement" of millions of dollars from bin Laden to
             Sudan's state-owned Military Industrial Corp. in the
             mid-1990s.

             "Highly reliable intelligence" indicating that bin Laden
             had reached an agreement with the Sudanese
             government, which is on the State Department's list of
             state sponsors of terrorism, enabling him to produce
             chemical weapons in Sudan with government assistance
             under certain conditions.

             Frequent visits by officials linked to El Shifa's original
             owner to Samara Drug Industries in Iraq, a
             pharmaceutical firm closely linked to the head of Iraq's
             program for producing VX from EMPTA.

             And, finally, the soil sample containing a high
             concentration of EMPTA gathered near the El Shifa plant
             by an operative who had been carefully polygraphed and
             vetted by his CIA handlers.

             The officials denied published reports that the operative
             was an Egyptian or an agent of the Egyptian intelligence
             agency. They said they still have full confidence both in
             the "CIA asset" who collected the sample and in the
             chemical analysis of the sample by an independent
             laboratory, which they characterized as "95 percent"
             reliable.

             One intelligence official said Tenet's analysis, which
             came after the embassy bombings, had moved
             "light-years" beyond the July document recommending
             further sampling.

             "With information that bin Laden had attacked
             Americans before and planned to do so again, that he
             was seeking chemical weapons to use in future attacks,
             that he was cooperating with the government of Sudan in
             those efforts, and that Sudan's El Shifa plant was linked
             to both bin Laden and chemical weapons, we had a
             responsibility to counter this threat," White House press
             secretary Joe Lockhart said in a statement Thursday.

             But even in defending the attack, one administration
             official said that national security adviser Samuel R.
             "Sandy" Berger and Defense Secretary William S.
             Cohen made "inaccurate" statements on the night of the
             attack when they said they were certain that El Shifa
             produced EMPTA.

             "We never had any evidence of that," the official said.
             "The correct statement, and it has been corrected, was
             that EMPTA was present at the plant."

             The official also noted a substantial change in the
             administration's position with regard to the plant's
             owner, the wealthy Saudi businessman Saleh Idris: The
             U.S. government no longer claims that he is a terrorist.

             Shortly after the missile strike, administration officials
             conceded that they had not realized Idris owned the
             plant, which he had acquired six months earlier.
             Nevertheless, the Treasury Department moved almost
             immediately to freeze $24 million he had on deposit at
             the Bank of America. The freeze was lifted in May, after
             Idris filed suit in federal court and the government did
             not contest the case.

             Idris has said he now intends to file a second suit,
             seeking $30 million in compensation for the plant. It is
             unclear whether the government will contest it.

             One senior administration official maintained in an
             interview this week that Idris's case is "irrelevant" to
             the justification for striking the plant.

             "Even if you took his view, that he owned it and he's an
             innocent guy, as long as we believe, and continue to
             believe, that this was a resource associated with
             chemical weapons that was available to bin Laden,
             Idris's innocence or guilt, and his intentions, really
             don't have anything to do with it."

             Idris's lawyer, Mark J. MacDougall, a partner at Akin,
             Gump, Strauss, Hauer & Feld, responded that there is no
             evidence linking El Shifa to the Military Industrial
             Corp., under Idris or the plant's previous owner.

             The administration's explanation for the El Shifa attack
             "has changed dramatically during the past year,"
             MacDougall said. "Either the evidence supporting the
             decision to destroy the plant exists, or it doesn't. Until
             the facts are disclosed, and tested, this is not going to
             go away."

                © Copyright 1999 The Washington Post Company


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