-Caveat Lector-
>From www.ucsusa.org
Myth: Responding to global warming costs too much in dollars and jobs.
Reality: A new study shows that adoption of practices and technologies that
would reduce US emissions of carbon dioxide -- like energy efficiency,
renewable energy sources, and clean transportation -- would save billions of
dollars and generate hundreds of thousands of jobs.
Energy Innovations, a recently released study, shows that if the United
States turns away from fossil fuels and takes the path toward efficient use
of energy from renewable sources, net savings nationwide will reach $58
billion by the year 2010, which is about $530 per household. In addition, in
2010, the oil import bill would be $21 billion less than if the country
continues on the current energy path.
Both of these savings would contribute to expanded employment, with the
creation by 2010 of nearly 800,000 additional jobs. In addition, the study
shows the renewable energy path resulting in a small increase of $14 billion
in wage and salary income and a slightly higher gross domestic product (up
about $3 billion) than would occur on the current path.
Myth: There is no real evidence that global temperatures have risen as a
result of human causes.
Reality: After studying all available scientific data on the earth's climate,
scientists with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded: "The
balance of evidence suggests that there is a discernible human influence on
global climate."
The scientists found significant evidence that, in the last century, the
average surface temperature of the earth has increased between 0.5° and 1.1°F
(0.3° - 0.6°C). Data from both meteorological and historical records show
that the twentieth century is warmer than any other period in the last 1,000
years. And the 10 warmest years since 1860 -- the beginning of reliable
meteorological data -- have all occurred within the last 15 years.
Myth: Computer models of climate change have predicted far more global
warming than the satellite record actually shows. This proves that global
warming is not occurring.
Reality: The satellite record is only one tool scientists use to evaluate
changes in climate.
To downplay the threat of climate change, critics focus on outdated computer
models and on satellite data available only since 1979 -- too short a period
to assess climate trends. Current computer models incorporate recent
improvements in scientific knowledge. For example, climatologists now know
more about the atmospheric role of aerosols -- tiny particles suspended in
the atmosphere -- and the circulation of oceans. The match between
predictions from these models and 150 years of global surface temperature
measurements (more reliable in climate terms than the brief satellite record)
is close, though not exact. This discrepancy indicates that scientists still
have more to learn about what influences the climate system.
But scientists base their evaluation of climate trends on much more than
computer models and temperature records. Historical studies of glacier ice
cores, tree rings, and coral growth layers have produced estimates of
temperature and precipitation over much of the globe for the last 1,000
years. All these analyses show that the twentieth century is warmer than at
any time in the last 1,000 years.
Myth: There's no point in the industrial world curbing emissions of
heat-trapping gases, since developing countries like China and India will
produce most of those gases in the future.
Reality: For at least the next several decades, emissions from industrialized
countries will continue to exceed those from the developing nations.
Emissions of heat-trapping gases from developing countries are indeed
growing. But there is a vast discrepancy in the per-capita emissions and in
the levels of economic development between industrialized countries like the
United States and developing countries like India. The buildup of
heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere over the last 100 years has been almost
entirely due to industrial activity in the United States and other developed
countries. Once industrialized countries move decisively to reduce their
emissions of heat-trapping gases, the developing world is likely to adhere to
global emissions limits, as they now adhere to the limits industrialized
nations adopted to protect the ozone layer.
In addition, as clean energy technologies gain more market, their prices will
fall, putting them well within reach of developing countries. These economies
will be able to develop without following the environmentally destructive
path of fossil fuel use taken by industrialized nations.
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