-Caveat Lector- STRATFOR.COM Global Intelligence Update Weekly GIU September 1, 1999 Central Asia Looks To Old Master Russia Summary: Kyrgyzstan has asked Russia for help in fighting Islamic guerrillas who are holding approximately 20 hostages near the Tajikistan border. By asking for assistance, the Central Asian republic is effectively signaling the failure to provide regional security. Most significant of all, this is a region where the U.S. has been actively cultivating military allies. Analysis: The Kyrgyz defense ministry on August 31 requested Russian military help with fighting Islamic rebels in the south. Kyrgyz Deputy Prime Minister Boris Silayev and Defense Minister Esen Topoyev met Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin in Moscow to ask for Russia's assistance. Putin agreed to provide Kyrgyzstan with military and technical support, but ruled out deployment of Russian troops. Russian Defense Minister Igor Sergeyev said August 31 that he would consider supplying weapons and ammunition, according to ITAR-TASS and other reports. Kyrgyzstan has asked Russia for direct military support as well as technical assistance. Specifically, authorities in the capital Tashkent have asked for communications, night vision goggles and weapons. Kyrgyz forces appear ill prepared for this struggle Its anti-terrorist unit has been demobilized and some reports in the region indicate that the rebels are better equipped and better trained. Kyrgyzstan is a full member of the Commonwealth of Independent States Security Council, having recently renewed its membership in the alliance with Russia, Belarus, Armenia, Tajikistan, and Kazakhstan. The fighting began last week after mostly Uzbek Islamic rebels crossed the Tajik-Kyrgyz border, seizing four villages and taking more than 20 hostages. Four hostages have been released. The rebels' intentions are unclear, as they have not declared their demands. About 500 to 1,000 rebels are believed to be hiding in the mountainous region surrounding the villages. In their efforts to deal with the crisis, officials from defense and foreign ministries of Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan met in Osh, Kyrgyzstan, on August 30. They signed a joint declaration of intent to prevent terrorism by using the most severe measures allowed by international law. Still, their efforts so far seem uncoordinated. On the same day, Uzbekistan launched bombing attacks in southern Kyrgyzstan, accidentally killing three civilians. Kyrgyzstan responded by saying the air attack has not been authorized and it would demand compensation from Uzbekistan. The confusion appears to have prompted Tashkent's plea to Russia. Over the past year, Russia has offered little military hardware to help battle the region's border disputes. Only 130 Russian border troops are believed to remain in Kyrgyzstan. Authorities dealt with previous hostage incidents, in July and August, by paying ransoms. Failures to deal with Islamic groups, primarily the "Islamic Revival Movement of Uzbekistan," have led President Akayev to reappoint two defense ministers in two weeks. The incident has become a profound embarrassment to the local military. Maj. Gen. Anarbek Shankeyev was one of the first hostages taken and guerrillas later abducted 17 reconnaissance troops. The U.S. military has tried hard to cultivate ties with local militaries in an effort to displace Russia as the more influential power. Troops of the 82nd Airborne Division have held exercises with local forces and Special Forces have trained Central Asian troops in an effort to build up talent for joint operations, primarily peacekeeping. Most recently, officers from the region journeyed to MacDill Air Force Base, Florida to practice command and control of their forces. While local troops are considered adequate, Central Asian units generally need better technology. Russia is positioning itself to take advantage of the outbreak of violence in the region. Coordination between Russia and its eastern neighbors in the struggle against Islamic extremism was one of the main issues on President Boris Yeltsin's agenda at the "Shanghai Five" summit. The joint declaration from the summit said that all the parties recognized the importance of fighting terrorists, separatists, and religious fanatics. Ultimately, Russia appears to be interested in reasserting influence to develop relations with Central Asia's southeastern neighbor, China. Three high-profile meetings last week confirmed that the two countries are reinforcing their strategic partnership [ http://www.stratfor.com/CIS/commentary/c9908240015.htm ]. Russian President Boris Yeltsin and his Chinese counterpart Jiang Zemin discussed closer cooperation. China is privately concerned that Central Asian unrest is feeding separatist rebels in Xinjiang province. Russian military assistance to Kyrgyzstan may, in fact, be Moscow's first serious favor to Beijing. ____________________ **COPYRIGHT NOTICE** In accordance with Title 17 U. S. C. Section 107, any copyrighted work in this message is distributed under fair use without profit or payment to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for nonprofit research and educational purposes only.[Ref. http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/107.shtml ] DECLARATION & DISCLAIMER ========== CTRL is a discussion and informational exchange list. Proselyzting propagandic screeds are not allowed. Substance—not soapboxing! These are sordid matters and 'conspiracy theory', with its many half-truths, misdirections and outright frauds is used politically by different groups with major and minor effects spread throughout the spectrum of time and thought. 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