-Caveat Lector- from: http://www.aci.net/kalliste/ <A HREF="http://www.aci.net/kalliste/">The Home Page of J. Orlin Grabbe</A> ----- Today's Lesson from Under the Net by Iris Murdoch I awoke what seemed to be days later and found that in fact it was only half past eleven. It took me some time to remember why I was feeling so miserable, and I looked for several minutes at the gilt crown, which I had been clutching in my hand while I slept, without being able to recall what it was or how I came to be holding it. When the sorrowful events of the more recent past came back to me I set myself wondering what I ought to do next. The first thing seemed to be to get myself as far as a chemist and take something for my headache. I did this. Then I quenched my raging thirst at a water foundtain. The quenching of thirst is so exquisite a pleasure that it is a scandal that no amount of ingenuity can prolong it. After than I sat on a bench at Hyde Park C orner rubbing my head, and trying to make a plan. It was by now perfectly clear to me that my previous pattern of life was gone forever. I can take a hint from the fates. What new pattern would in due course emerge I had no means of telling. Meanwhile there were certain problems which would undoubtedly give me no rest until I had at least made some attempt to solve them. ===== Russian Follies Shady Politicians for the Shadow Economy Zhirinovsky believes in true democracy. VLADIMIR ZHIRINOVKSY, the ultra-nationalist Russian politician, has unveiled a list of dubious figures as his party's candidates for the forthcoming elections, saying he wants to see the "shadow" economy represented in parliament. He has selected a Siberian metal magnate wanted by police on suspicion of links to contract murders and a host of businessmen who have had run-ins with the law. A seat in the Duma, the lower house of parliament, gives immunity from prosecution, which is thought to attract doubtful characters into politics. Mr Zhirinovsky's Liberal Democrats are the third largest group in the Duma with 49 seats - about 10 per cent. Number two in the party list is Anatoly Bykov, an infamous figure in Siberia's Krasnoyarsk region, wanted by police in connection with an inquiry into two contract killings and a separate case of money-laundering. A former boxer and now head of an aluminium plant, Mr Bykov has in the past year been the subject of more speculation about alleged links to the underworld than almost any other Russian businessman. Mr Zhirinovsky seems relaxed about Mr Bykov. He said: "We would like to see members of the shadow economy among us because they represent the real and powerful economy." Another colourful character standing for the Duma from Mr Zhirinovsky's party is Dmitry Yakubovsky, a well-connected lawyer convicted of stealing manuscripts from the Russian national library in St Petersburg and torturing a cellmate. The London Telegraph, Sept. 23, 1999 The Japanese Yen IMF: Down Yen! Down Boy! Mussa says: Print money. Please. WASHINGTON - The International Monetary Fund warned Wednesday that the soaring yen could hurt Japan's economic recovery, and it urged the Bank of Japan to print more of its currency in order to halt the yen's appreciation against the U.S. dollar and the euro. The warning came from Michael Mussa, the IMF's chief economist, who nonetheless forecast an improving world economic outlook, with 1999 global growth upgraded to 3 percent from the IMF's last projection of just 2.3 percent. In the year 2000, global growth should be running at a rate of 3.5 percent, the IMF economist said at a news conference here. The 1999 growth figure was higher than the number contained in a leaked version of the IMF's annual World Economic Outlook, which was posted on a Dutch Web site earlier this month. Mr. Mussa noted that the newly industrialized Asian economies that were at the heart of last year's global financial crisis were bouncing back to recovery, with an especially positive performance by South Korea. For these Asian countries, the IMF is predicting 1999 growth of 5.2 percent, a much stronger showing than the 2.1 percent the IMF predicted last May. Likewise, the forecast for 2000 is 5.1 percent, higher than the previous forecast of 4.5 percent. As for Japan, Mr. Mussa said that ''we have now had two quarters of positive growth, signaling a clear end to recession, with significantly stronger demand.'' But he warned ''there are risks of the recovery being knocked off course, especially if we were to see a substantial further appreciation of the yen.'' At the close of trading in New York on Wednesday, the dollar was at 104.055 yen, down from 105.010 yen Tuesday. Although the Group of Seven wealthy industrial nations are expected to discuss the yen issue when they meet here on Saturday, Mr. Mussa said the problem with coordinated G-7 intervention on currency markets was that it might not be seen by markets as being backed by monetary policy. Unless there is such backing, ''then the markets tend to believe, and I think probably with reason, that its effect will not be very large or very enduring.'' If, on the other hand, ''there was a clear indication that intervention was to be backed in a meaningful way by monetary policy, it would be effective and persuasive in the market,'' Mr. Mussa said. Noting that Japanese interest rates are already at an effective level of zero, the IMF chief economist said that, ''if the rest of the world gives the indication that it wants to hold more Japanese yen,'' the central bank can accommodate that demand ''by creating the additional yen that people wish to hold.'' Mr. Mussa criticized the Bank of Japan's decision to sell yen in order to stem its appreciation, saying this was not enough. Instead, ''monetary policy should provide some support to actions designed to resist an unwarranted appreciation of the yen.'' The IMF is forecasting less robust growth for China, saying that it will slow from 7.8 percent in 1998 to 6.6 percent this year and 6 percent in 2000. The economy is hampered by weak demand a reduced trade surplus. The United States, meanwhile, should move ahead with a moderate interest rate increase later this year, according to the IMF, in order to ensure a soft landing for the strong U.S. economy. That interest rate increase, Mr. Mussa suggested, could dampen U.S. consumer demand, which remains too strong. Growth in the United States was put at 3.7 percent in 1999 and 2.6 percent next year, both figures having been upgraded by 0.4 percent by the IMF since its last forecast in May. Mr. Mussa also noted that the runaway U.S. current-account deficit should eventually be reduced as surpluses in Japan and Europe shrink over time. Among other forecasts from the IMF Wednesday were the following: Latin America is having a difficult year, but Brazil is jumping out of recession faster than expected, and its economy will contract by just 1 percent in 1999, compared with previous forecasts of a 4 percent shrinkage. Brazil should leap to 4 percent annual growth by 2000. Mexico will have growth of 3 percent this year, up from an earlier 2 percent forecast, but Argentina's economy will probably shrink by 3 percent in 1999. Russia, despite being saddled by corruption scandals, has improved its fiscal policy. Economic prospects are also better, and the IMF has changed its previous forecast of a 1999 contraction of 7 percent to zero growth this year, while looking for the Russian economy to grow by 2 percent in 2000. Recovery in the 11-nation euro zone is proceeding, with growth forecasts of 2.1 percent in 1999 and 2.8 percent in 2000. But Italy and Germany are still lagging behind, with 1999 growth forecasts of 1.4 percent and 1.2 percent respectively, and recovery next year bringing growth of 2.5 percent for Germany and 2.4 percent for Italy. With better growth prospects in Europe, ''the euro may be expected to strengthen'' in the period ahead, according to the IMF annual report. The European Central Bank will probably leave interest rates unchanged this year, the IMF said, and may decide to increase them modestly as growth strengthens next spring. International Herald Tribune, Sept. 23, 1999 Derivatives Weather Derivatives Begin Trading on Globex It was so hot in Cincinnati the future went up $500. With considerably less than a thunder-clap, the first exchange-based trading of weather derivatives began yesterday. There was no bell-ringing and no ceremony as the Chicago Mercantile Exchange launched a new class of instruments. In truth, little initial trading is likely to stem from the Windy City itself. The new contracts are supported by five trading firms - Acquila Energy, Southern Energy, Enron Trading, Koch Trading and Castlebridge Weather Markets. None are established CME members, with most belonging to the Houston-based energy trading community. The contracts, moreover, are being traded on Globex, the CME's electronic system - well away from the harried pits which even today characterise the Chicago futures community. Nevertheless, a good deal of interest surrounds the launch. Over the past two years, weather derivatives have grown from a fond idea to a small but intriguing market. Most traders agree that about 2,000 "weather" swaps (private, off-exchange contracts between individual entities) have been negotiated. Their estimated value is put at close to $3bn. Many of deals have been handled by the same trading firms that are now supporting the on-exchange market. The main end-users have been from the utility sector. By creating even an embryonic exchange-based market, these trading firms hope the customer base will widen and liquidity improve. OTC deals can be daunting, since there is no public price dissemination and no easy way of gauging whether fees are reasonable and deals fair. An on-exchange market is more transparent, with published prices. As Ravi Nathan at Aquila Energy points out, the use of a formal exchange market, with its associated clearing facilities, also eliminates credit risk for participants. Accordingly, the CME contracts have been sized to appeal to fairly small customers - a medium-sized apparel business, say, or a chain of retail stores. Like most OTC contracts, they are built around the "Heating Degree Day" index for four cities (Atlanta, Chicago, Cincinnati, and New York) - that is, an index that measures the extent and frequency that the temperature drops below 65 degrees Fahrenheit. The new futures will be sized at $100 times the CME HDD indices - one for each city - and the minimum price movement (or tick size) will be just $100. Next year, the CME plans to add "Cooling Degree Day" index futures, and bring in some extra locations. Nevertheless, some people wonder how much interest the on-exchange market will attract. In theory, hedging against weather risk should be a highly desirable. It is estimated, for example, that about 20 per cent of the US economy is affected by weather patterns. Moreover, some large companies have become increasingly sophisticated about monitoring weather patterns. For example, Sears Roebuck, the Chicago-based retailer, uses weather forecasting services to position its winter and summer merchandise in different regions. However, some weather specialists say the HDD indices are a limited weather measurement tool. "An HDD index only speaks to one industry," says Ian Clark, at Strategic Weather Services, noting that this is a measure that primarily interests power companies. "It doesn't speak to growing degree days, which is what agriculture cares about, or precipitation," he says. That, though, may ensure the CME's initiative is not the last. The Financial Times, Sept. 23, 1999 Digital Society Even More on MP3 Today MP3, tomorrow the Matrix. MP3 is a digital compression standard that's changing the way we buy and share music. Rick Maybury explains how you, too, can tune in to this phenomenon IT has been variously described as the biggest innovation in recorded music since the introduction of the vinyl LP/compact cassette/ CD - take your pick. However, there is little doubt that a piece of computer software, generically known as MP3, could have a very big impact on the way we buy and listen to music in the future. MP3 is short for MPEG-3, which stands for Motion Pictures Expert Group Layer 3. It is a software compression scheme for condensing digital audio data. That's really all you need to know on the technical front; the upshot of it is that it enables music and sounds - comparable in quality to audio CD - to be sent over the Internet. There's nothing particularly special about MP3: it's one of a number of compression systems that reduce the amount of data in audio files by leaving out sounds that either cannot be heard or are masked by other sounds. What sets MP3 apart is the fact that it is fast becoming a standard. It's still early days, but already it is possible to download music from thousands of websites and play it through a PC's sound system. There the MP3 story might have ended, since very few people would seriously consider using a PC as an alternative to a home hi-fi system. What has given MP3 a life of its own is a new generation of peripherals that make it possible to get those music files out of the PC and into mainstream home audio equipment. The most obvious route is via a recordable CD-Rom drive; budget models are now available for less than £100. A CD writer can record or "burn" music files on to a CD-R disc, which can be played on almost any domestic CD deck. The other possibility is an MP3 player. They're roughly the size of a personal tape player and PC files can be downloaded to the player directly, or carried across on standard PC memory cards. Several models are now in the shops and prices start at around £150, though there is evidence to suggest that could fall to less than £100 in time for Christmas. One hi-fi manufacturer - Sharp - has also developed a mini hi-fi system that can be used in conjunction with a PC to download MP3 files and record them to MiniDisc. Distributing music on the Internet via MP3 has raised a number of issues concerning copyright and royalties, and the music industry is naturally worried about the implications for software piracy, but you can be sure that it's an avenue that will be fully explored for its commercial potential. Already there's a large number of sites selling copyright-paid music, though at the moment it's mostly confined to specialist areas, small independent labels and bands. It's likely to be a while before you can legitimately download your favourite Beatles album from the Internet, pick and mix the latest chart tunes or compile a custom CD of works from cherished composers. If you would like to get a flavour of what MP3 has to offer right now there are an enormous amount of MP3 music and samples available free. The first thing you will need, apart from a PC with an Internet connection, is a program called a "player". At the last count there were more than 100 of them, covering most popular platforms and operating systems. You can find a very comprehensive list on the MP3.Com website, along with links to download sites, at www.mp3.com/software/playersrest.html If you are using a fairly up-to-date PC with Windows 95 or 98, one of the best options is a freeware program called WinAmp. It's quite compact, only 650Kb in size, so it should take only two or three minutes to download via a 56kbit/s modem. The first step is to create two empty folders on your C: drive in Windows Explorer. Call one "Player" and the other "Music". Connect to the download site above and click on the WinAmp link; you will be asked if you want to open the file or save it to disc. Choose the latter and use the Save button to navigate to your newly created Player folder. When download is complete, click on the WinAmp icon in the folder - it's a good idea to accept the defaults and the program will automatically install itself on your machine. Now you are ready to begin. WinAmp comes with it's own "mini" Internet browser, which opens automatically to show a list of musical and audio genres and a selection of top tunes. You can click on any of these and it will establish a connection and link directly to the listed download sites. Again you will be asked if you want to open the file or save it to disc, which is where the Music folder comes in. Alternatively, if you want to explore the wider world of MP3 just type in MP3 and the name of an artist or musical style into the search field (ie "classical mp3" or "david bowie mp3", and see what that brings up. The only real drawback to MP3 is the download time. For example, a track lasting three and a half minutes could occupy 3.5Mb, which could take a typical Internet connection with a 56kbit/s modem between 10 and 12 minutes. When download is complete all you need to do is click on the file, though you may want to run it through your virus scanner first, just in case. WinAmp opens automatically and starts playing. The controls and displays are similar to a normal tape/CD player and as an added bonus it has a graphic equaliser. WinAmp has many other applications. For example, you can use it to listen to radio stations on the Internet, play midi or wav files and audio CDs on your PC. MP3 opens up an exciting world of audio entertainment for PC owners and is a real taste of things to come. Jargon filter Burn The process of recording a CD or CD-Rom. Graphic equaliser Sophisticated tone control, for precise setting of bass, mid-range and treble frequencies during playback on an audio system. Samples Many record companies and bands now provide short snippets from forthcoming albums in MP3 format on their websites. The London Telegraph, Sept. 23, 1999 ----- Aloha, He'Ping, Om, Shalom, Salaam. Em Hotep, Peace Be, Omnia Bona Bonis, All My Relations. Adieu, Adios, Aloha. Amen. Roads End Kris DECLARATION & DISCLAIMER ========== CTRL is a discussion and informational exchange list. Proselyzting propagandic screeds are not allowed. Substance—not soapboxing! These are sordid matters and 'conspiracy theory', with its many half-truths, misdirections and outright frauds is used politically by different groups with major and minor effects spread throughout the spectrum of time and thought. That being said, CTRL gives no endorsement to the validity of posts, and always suggests to readers; be wary of what you read. CTRL gives no credeence to Holocaust denial and nazi's need not apply. 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