-Caveat Lector- ------- Forwarded Message Follows ------- National Center For Policy Analysis DAILY POLICY DIGEST Thursday, October 14, 1999 PointCast can automatically load NCPA's Policy Digest summaries on your desktop for easy reading. For information go to http://www.ncpa.org/pointcast.html IN TODAY'S DIGEST o A SEVENFOLD INCREASE IN LAND PRICES and an apartment glut are some of the effects of "Smart Growth" policies in Portland, Ore....NCPA o CRITICAL INDUSTRIES HAVE NOT CERTIFIED THEIR Y2K COMPLIANCE, says former Gov. Pete Du Pont....NCPA/WASHINGTON TIMES o NOBEL ECONOMIST ROBERT A. MUNDELL is a defender of the gold standard and supply-side tax cuts, say observers....WALL STREET JOURNAL o THE LONDON UNDERGROUND MAY BE PRIVATIZED despite the Paddington station wreck, say observers....WALL STREET JOURNAL o THE U.S. SUPREME COURT HAS AN AGE DISCRIMINATION CASE brought by state employees, which raises issues of federalism....NEW YORK TIMES o FASTEST GROWING AREAS AND INDUSTRIES HAVE LOWEST UNION MEMBERSHIP rate, according to an AFL-CIO study....NEW YORK TIMES o WHITES-ONLY AFFIRMATIVE ACTION CHALLENGED, as black student claims his 14th Amendment rights are violated....CHICAGO TRIBUNE IN TODAY'S NEWS PORTLAND: SMART GROWTH'S BAD EXAMPLE Portland, Ore., is pioneering Smart Growth (also known as the New Urbanism), the latest fad in urban planning. Smart Growth promises such things as less congestion, more affordable housing and cleaner air, says economist Randal O'Toole. But in Portland, Smart Growth policies are delivering rapidly increasing congestion, higher housing prices and more pollution. Portland's regional government, called Metro, anticipates area population will increase 75 percent by 2040. Yet it plans to increase highway capacity no more than 13 percent while it adds 90 miles of rail transit lines to the 30 miles already built. o In 1990, 92 percent of all the trips taken in the Portland area were by auto, while 3 percent were by transit and the rest were by walking or bicycling (see figure http://www.ncpa.org/ba/ba305/ba305fig1.gif ). o Metro officials project that even with planned changes, by 2040 Portlanders will still drive for 88 percent of their trips and use transit for just 6 percent. o And the number of miles of congested roads will more than triple -- partly due to "traffic calming" measures to discourage driving, such as narrowing and reducing the number of traffic lanes, including eliminating turn lanes on major streets. Metro plans to increase population density by two-thirds; for example, some neighborhoods of single-family homes have been rezoned for multi-family housing. There is now a huge surplus in apartment and multi-family housing and a major shortage of single-family homes. Since 1996, Portland has ranked among the five least affordable U.S. housing markets and land prices have increased sevenfold. Metro also admits that its plan will increase smog by 10 percent, which is consistent with Environmental Protection Agency data showing that the worst air pollution is found in the densest cities and urban areas. Source: Randal O'Toole, "Portland: Smart Growth's Bad Example," Brief Analysis No. 305, October 14, 1999, National Center for Policy Analysis, 12655 N. Central Expy., Suite 720, Dallas, Texas 75243, (972) 386-6272. For text http://www.ncpa.org/ba/ba305/ba305.html For more on Land Use Controls http://www.ncpa.org/pd/state/state4.html BEWARE COMPLACENCY ON Y2K COMPLIANCE January 1, 2000, is only two-and-one-half months away and no one knows for sure whether their lights will stay on when that date rolls around. However, recently there was a long list of electricity suppliers who had not yet announced that they are Y2K compliant. Moreover, a long list of companies in the chemical industry, water suppliers and nuclear power plants that operate on computers had yet to affirm that they are 100 percent ready for the new millennium, according to Y2K expert Dick Lefkon. o The U.S. electric power industry is comprised of approximately 3,200 different electric utilities and some big names -- including Baltimore G&E, Detroit Edison, Florida Power, Indianapolis P&L, Minnesota Power and Wisconsin P&L -- had yet to claim they are fully ready for the 21st Century. o The chemical industry is composed of approximately 69,000 operations -- but the government has Y2K data on fewer than 500 of them. o With regard to water supplies, we only have data on fewer than 600 of the 190,000 operations. o A Nuclear Energy Institute survey indicates that 22 of the nation's 103 nuclear reactors are not expected to be 100 percent ready until the fourth quarter. The hope is that disruptions will be minor and speedily remedied. But such figures do not instill a sense of well-being and confidence. Source: Pete du Pont (National Center for Policy Analysis), "On the Dark Side of Y2K," Washington Times, October 14, 1999. For Du Pont columns http://www.ncpa.org/oped/dupont/dupont99.html For more on Year 2000 (Y2K) Computer Bug http://www.ncpa.org/pd/economy/econ13.html WHO IS ROBERT A. MUNDELL? Champions of free enterprise are hailing the decision of the Nobel Committee to award this year's prize in economics to Robert A. Mundell, a Columbia University professor and father of Reagan- era supply-side economics. He was also a force in launching the new European common currency, the euro. o Mundell conducted research into common currencies when the idea of the euro was still a fantasy. o He also examined the implications of cross-border capital flows and flexible foreign-exchange rates when capital flows were still restricted and currencies still fixed to each other. o He stoutly defended the gold standard in his works, and was an early advocate of tax-cutting, supply-side theory which laid the foundation for "Reaganomics." Economist Jude Wanniski says Mundell "made it possible for Ronald Reagan to be elected president," by providing the intellectual backing for the Reagan tax cuts. In a profession long dominated by the theories advanced by John Maynard Keynes, Mundell's ideas were considered radical when they were first advanced in the 1960s and 1970s. But they have become nearly mainstream among economists as supply-side economics has been vindicated by the skyrocketing growth of the 1980s and 1990s. When the Reagan tax cuts became fully effective in 1983, the U.S. economy began its long march forward and, experts point out, has never looked back except for a nine-month recession associated with the savings and loan crisis. In its lead editorial this morning, the Wall Street Journal comments: "In terms of actual policy initiatives, Robert Mundell has been the most influential economist since John Maynard Keynes." Sources: Michael M. Phillips, "Mundell Wins Nobel Prize in Economics," and Editorial, "A Supply-Side Nobel," both in the Wall Street Journal, October 14, 1999. For Editorial (requires WSJ Interactive subscription) http://interactive.wsj.com/articles/SB939851654249088588.htm For "Mundell on Supply Side Economics" (requires WSJ Interactive subscription) http://interactive.wsj.com/articles/SB939852669155833030.htm For more on Supply-Side Policies http://www.ncpa.org/pd/economy/econ4.html IS LONDON'S TUBE ABOUT TO BE PRIVATIZED? Since the days of former Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, who put in motion Britain's aggressive privatization policy, Her Majesty's Treasury has picked up $63 billion from selling off national assets ranging from the country's telephone system to the national sugar company. In fact, Britain has collected nearly 10 percent of all the money raised globally through privatization since 1990. Now suggestions are being heard to privatize parts of the London Underground, the world's oldest subway system. o The London Underground loses hundreds of millions of dollars a year, even with an average one-way fare equivalent to more than $2.80 -- raising the question, who would buy it? o Yet following the 1996 sale of British Rail -- the country's long-distance passenger network -- major investments have been made in new tracks, cars and updated stations, leading most observers to rate the privatization a grand success. o And the 1984 privatization of British Telecom resulted in a doubling of investment, followed by substantial reductions in phone rates and waiting times for phones to be installed. o But any talk of privatization throws British labor unions into a panic. So the recent train crash in which 30 to 40 people were killed is being used by the unions to undermine privatization efforts. But supporters point out that 3,500 people die every year on British roads without raising a public outcry. By contrast, prior to the Paddington crash, only 56 people died in train crashes in Britain in the past 10 years. Source: Greg Steinmetz, "Her Majesty May Sell Part of London's Tube, Angering Some in U.K.," Wall Street Journal, October 14, 1999. For more on Selling Government Enterprises http://www.ncpa.org/pi/internat/intdex7.html For text (requires WSJ Interactive subscription) http://interactive.wsj.com/articles/SB9398544602800655.htm For more on the U.K. http://www.ncpa.org/pi/internat/intdex9.html AGE-BIAS CASE GIVES COURT NEW CHANCE TO AFFIRM FEDERALISM Must the states bow to federal laws on age discrimination in employment? Legal observers are reporting that arguments before the Supreme Court yesterday revealed that the five justices who are committed to states' rights appear to have lost none of their zeal. o The case was brought by the federal government and a group of state university professors and librarians from Florida and Alabama who sued their employers for age discrimination. o The case had been dismissed last year by the federal appeals court in Atlanta. o A Supreme Court ruling that Congress lacked authority to make states liable in applying the Age Discrimination in Employment Act would raise new questions about the ability of Congress to define and legislate civil rights protections. o The Court has never ruled that discrimination on the basis of age is unconstitutional -- and Justice Antonin Scalia said yesterday that he found it "extraordinary" that Congress "just went ahead" and did so on its own. In recent decisions, the justices have greatly circumscribed Congress's ability to make federal law binding on states. Source: Linda Greenhouse, "Age Bias Case in Supreme Court Opens a New Round on Federalism," New York Times, October 14, 1999. For more on Age Discrimination http://www.ncpa.org/pd/law/emplaw/index2b.html IN OTHER NEWS ORGANIZED LABOR FACES ITS DECLINE The AFL-CIO is pondering a study it commissioned that shows unions are losing strength not only in key industry sectors, but in the most vital regions of the country. In short, job growth is fastest in industries were unions are weakest, while job losses are greatest in sectors where unions are strongest. Moreover, the fastest-growing U.S. metropolitan areas tend to have the lowest percentage of workers in unions, while the slowest growing areas tend to have the highest concentration of union workers. o Between 1984 and 1997, the 30 fastest growing sectors of the economy -- including hotels, child-care, finance, retail trade and airlines -- added 26 million new jobs, but only one out of 20 workers in those sectors became a union member. o In industries with the greatest job losses -- such as autos and steel -- four-fifths of the 2.1 million jobs lost belonged to members. o Economically vibrant cities such as Atlanta, Dallas, Houston, Miami and Phoenix tend to have the lowest percentage of workers in unions. o Meanwhile, slow-growing cities like Chicago and New York City -- which has 13 percent of the nation's union members -- tend to have the highest percentage of unionized workers. The proportion of workers in unions has plunged to 13.9 percent today from 35 percent four decades ago. Economists point out that unions often have only themselves to blame for dwindling membership numbers. Too frequently, absurd wage demands and confrontations with management have convinced businesses to pack up and move their operations out of the country. That is not a concern of the Union of Needletrades, Industrial and Textile Employees, which is seeking to organize laundry workers. "It's a major growth industry," one of its officials recently observed, "and it can't move offshore." Source: Steven Greenhouse, "Union Leaders See Grim News in Labor Study," New York Times, October 13, 1999. For more on Union Membership http://www.ncpa.org/pd/unions/membership.html A CHALLENGE TO WHITES-ONLY AFFIRMATIVE ACTION As proof that if you wait long enough you'll see it all, Alabama has an affirmative action scholarship program exclusively for whites who enroll in one of the state's two historically black colleges. And now, a black student has challenged it in court, claiming it violates his 14th amendment rights guaranteeing equal protection under the law. o The affirmative action plan affects Alabama State and Alabama A&M. o It was created in 1995 to encourage whites to add some diversity to the traditionally all-black student bodies. o White enrollment has increased from seven to 10 percent at Alabama State since the 1995 decision by U.S. District Judge Harold L. Murphy. Now, the same judge has allowed Jesse J. Tompkins, a part time student at Alabama State, to challenge the constitutionality of the scholarships, claiming he was denied a scholarship in 1996 because of the affirmative action program for whites. He is being defended by the Center for Individual Rights, a Washington- based legal group that takes racial preference cases around the country. Tompkins argues that racial opportunity has become so well-equalized in American that we no longer need take race into account. Observers believe that if Tompkins wins his case, it could help unravel affirmative action programs around the country, regardless of which race is involved. Source: Clarence Page (Chicago Tribune), "Affirmative Reaction," Dallas Morning News, October 13, 1999. 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