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http://www.ahram.org.eg/weekly/1999/453/op1.htm

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Al-Ahram Weekly
28 Oct. - 3 Nov. 1999
Issue No. 453
Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875

  Critical misjudgements
By Ibrahim Nafie
 The announcement of the new cabinet, and the Bright Star military exercises:
two recent events that have provoked a deal of criticism. But while the
controversy that followed the cabinet reshuffle is a manifestation of the
current climate of democracy and free speech, that which has dogged Bright Star
'99 illustrates the kind of agendas that emerge as a result of conflicting
assessments of national interests and Egypt's regional role.

The reshuffle drew particularly sharp criticisms from the opposition parties.
Some expressed shock at what they considered minor changes while others went so
far as to accuse the government of caving in to Zionist-American pressures to
speed up the privatisation process, regardless of the social costs incurred.
Yet more expressed their reservations about certain individual appointments, or
else objected to administrative changes.

This despite the fact that President Mubarak had made it perfectly clear in
numerous speeches and interviews that the reshuffle was intended to promote a
comprehensive vision for the development of Egyptian society. To realise the
vision the performance of government institutions needs to be overhauled,
public participation in government expanded, and there needs to be greater
consistency between the efforts of government services and of the institutions
of civil society.

The new government's biggest challenge is to push ahead with the economic
reform programme. The reforms envisioned, though, are far removed from the
caricature some choose to promote -- selling off the public sector, driving
workers out of their jobs. Rather, they are targeted at increasing GDP,
attracting foreign investment in order to create more job opportunities,
augmenting per capita income and generating higher standards of living across
the board.

In light of the high priority accorded to economic reform, it is essential for
cabinet members, particularly the prime minister and the ministers with
economic-related portfolios, to share a similar outlook on the optimum means to
pursue their goals. And the exigencies of reform in general, and streamlining
government in particular, made it logical that the Foreign Commerce Department
be transferred from the Ministry of Supply to the Ministry of Economy. In a
similar vein, the creation of the new information technology portfolio, and a
department of technological development are necessary steps in enabling Egypt
to keep pace with the telecommunications revolution.

It was unfortunate that the cabinet reshuffle was preceded by a spate of wild
conjecturing. The president and new prime minister had warned the public
against such rumours, which, probably, lay behind the sense of anti-climax many
felt.

The Bright Star '99 military manoeuvres, on the other hand, sparked a different
kind of controversy, in which Libya played a part. Bright Star '99, the largest
joint military manoeuvres ever seen, involves 11 nations as participants and a
further 33 as observers. Of the 70,000 soldiers taking part, 30,000 are
Egyptian. This massive level of participation reflects Egypt's regional
strategic weight.

Libya's reaction to these manoeuvres is curious. In a display of paranoia it
portrayed them as a scenario for the occupation of Egypt and at the same time a
conspiracy against Libya. Likening them to the Allied landings in Normandy,
official Libyan sources suggested that the manoeuvres were intended to prepare
US and NATO forces to stage an amphibious landing in order to meet one of two
contingencies. The first was to rescue Israel from an Arab invasion spearheaded
by Egypt, the most powerful front-line country. The second was simply to
respond to the US directive to occupy North Africa.

Tripoli's warnings, it should by now be apparent, were made in a spirit of
solidarity with Egypt, not as an attack on Egyptian policy. To illustrate,
Libyan statements stressed the Egyptian rejection of the US secretary of
defence's request that Israel participate.

Libyan paranoia aside, it should be stressed that Bright Star '99 is entirely
unrelated to any current international or regional tensions. This year's
manoeuvres are the tenth in the series intended to help formulate strategies
for international military cooperation to preserve world peace. The purpose of
the joint training exercises is to develop mutual understanding and hone
expertise in joint planning, communications and control systems, and to give
practical training in implementing emergency tactical operations.

>From the Egyptian perspective, Bright Star '99 fully conforms to the concerns
and needs of our armed forces. The central idea behind the joint training
manoeuvres this year is, in a sense, to equip Egypt to counter a military
threat. The exercises, thus, stage a scenario in which Egypt is to intercept
and repel an armed invasion with the assistance of our partners' air and
missile coverage, thereby forcing the hostile power to respond to a UN Security
Council cease-fire resolution. Then, in the event that the hostile power
refuses to comply with the cease-fire resolution and refuses to withdraw from
occupied territory, the scenario calls for a comprehensive offensive operation
aimed at recovering the occupied territory.

Equally important to the development of the Egyptian armed forces is the fact
that the military drills involve training in complex strategic manoeuvres using
highly sophisticated equipment. Amphibious landings, in particular, are
intricate operations that demand close coordination.

It is surprising that the Libyans should think of Bright Star '99 as serving
Israeli interests. In spite of the good intentions behind the Libyan objections
to Bright Star '99, its anxieties, quite clearly, are not founded upon the true
nature or aims of these manoeuvres. If the Libyans fear a conspiracy against
their country, just because the US and NATO are involved in Bright Star, they
have obviously forgotten, temporarily, that Egypt would never participate in
any military operation against Libya, or any other Arab nation for that matter.
The reason for this is quite straightforward: Egypt considers any threat to the
security of another Arab nation as a threat to its own national security.

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