-Caveat Lector- <<When they outlaw ___________, then only outlaws will have __________ ? A<>E<>R >> ------- Forwarded Message Follows ------- Information about this email course appears at the bottom. The Smoking Gun Part 1 of 2 The key to stopping our nation's smoking habit--which kills 400,000 or more Americans every year and is projected to be killing 10 million a year worldwide by 2005--is to prevent teens from starting. Over time that will reduce the death toll because fewer people will be smoking. One obvious pressure point is to eliminate advertising aimed at children. Criminalizing it for youth smokers can also reduce teen smoking. Now, with the tobacco settlement, we really have the companies on the run. That's the conventional wisdom, but in "Smoked: Why Joe Camel Is Still Smiling," Mike Males shows how that perspective actually plays into the hands of Big Tobacco rather than reducing the number of smokers. 1. First, take the tobacco settlement in which Big Tobacco pays $246 billion to the states that sued over the next 25 years. In return, the industry gets limits on health-related civil suits. A sweet deal, compared with the $516 billion in lawsuits previously scuttled by Congress after record lobbying by the industry. Worse, the $246 billion is tax-deductible, meaning that the outlay will only be half to two-thirds that amount. Here's the kicker: the structure of the deal is a disincentive for states to adopt anti-smoking measures that really work. Payments to the states will be reduced if the rate of smoking drops, making it in the interest of the states to keep rates high and maintain the payment level. It's no wonder that in the five months following the settlement and in an otherwise somewhat bearish market, Big Tobacco's stocks jumped 53%. 2. "The strategy of anti-smoking groups to treat teenagers as an enemy requiring denigration, lecturing, and punishment has proven popular but disastrously counterproductive.... In fact, teen smoking had fallen sharply for 20 years (60% from the mid-1970s to 1992) absent coercion before authorities of the 1990s decided to institute increasingly draconian punishments against youths who tried tobacco. Montana teenagers could legally buy cigarettes and chewing tobacco in the 1980s, yet (even in the heart of Marlboro Country) their rates of tobacco use were the lowest of any state in the nation--lower than states which aimed legal bans and draconian penalties at teen smoking," writes Males. 3. One reason why targeting teens doesn't work is that smoking gets painted as an adult activity, giving it allure for those who most want to be adult: teens. It's a paradox that RJ Reynolds took advantage of in full page ads saying, "Only adults should ever face the decision to smoke or not." 4. But wait a minute: what about those evil Joe Camel ads; didn't they seduce kids to smoke? A surprising answer: the evidence doesn't support it. As Males writes, "The biggest DECLINES in teenage smoking initiation occurred from 1975 to 1992, a period in which cigarette ad and promotion spending TRIPLED (even factoring out inflation). And the biggest INCREASES in teen smoking and rate of first puff occurred from 1993 to the present, when ad and promotion spending DECLINED sharply." That doesn't mean advertising is a waste: ads can shift which brand is chosen by people already smoking, but this is essentially a fight over which companies have the biggest market share, not a strategy for recruiting large numbers of new customers. Interestingly enough, concerning Joe Camel's impact in particular, the character was introduced in advertisements starting in 1988. Teen smoking DECLINED between 1988 and 1992. 5. But if we make smoking illegal, won't that stop kids, at least for the most part? Again, the evidence doesn't support such a move. Some states expel teens from school, deny drivers' licenses, impose fines and even jail youths. North Carolina imposes some of the most severe penalties. "That a state which grows two-thirds of the nation's tobacco would enact tough laws against youth access shows just how small a threat such laws are to the industry," writes Males. Meanwhile, even as these harsh measures are spreading, a 1999 study by the Massachusetts General Hospital shows that teen smoking is on the increase, perhaps indicating the ineffectiveness of the clampdown, and the counterproductive nature of the smoking-is-for-adults campaign. 6. But aren't teens too young to do the right thing? In 1991, Montana held statewide referenda among junior high and high school students proposing that schools be "tobacco free." They passed, with schools in Bozeman voting 80% in favor. However, in three cities, Billings, Livingston, and Missoula, where city councils had implemented local ordinances to criminalize teen smoking, students were significantly less likely to vote for the referendum than would have been predicted by the smoking rates. "These cities where teen smoking had been criminalized were the only cities where such a pro-smoking trend occurred," writes Males. TOMORROW: Part II: What can be done to create a smoke-free society and why anti-smoking groups have chosen not to adopt campaigns they believe would be most effective. These facts come from “Smoked: Why Joe Camel Is Still Smiling” by Mike Males. http://www.commoncouragepress.com/smoked.html This is the free Political Literacy Course from Common Courage Press: A backbone of facts to stand up to spineless power. Email 44, November 4 1999. 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