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Dan, Can you possibly cut and paste
the article, I went there at 7:30 eastern time and it was unavailable.
Thanks. Terry
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Sunday, November 28, 1999 8:40
PM
Subject: [CTRL] Arms experts cite minor
possibility of Y2K missile launch
-Caveat Lector-
>From Pioneer Planet,
http://www.pioneerplanet.com/seven-days/1/news/docs/010067.htm
-
Published:
Sunday, November 28, 1999
Arms experts cite minor possibility of Y2K
missile
launch
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
----
JOHN
DONNELLY BOSTON
GLOBE
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
----
WASHINGTON
It
would be the world's most extreme Y2K computer glitch.
As improbable as it
may be, the possibility of a mistaken launch of nuclear
missiles just as
the world celebrates the new millennium has antiatomic
activists pushing
anew for disarmament of all U.S. and Russian nuclear
missiles.
U.S.
officials say flatly that Y2K computer problems will not cause
any
accidental launch of a nuclear missile.
But arms-control
specialists cannot completely rule out a Y2K doomsday
scenario, which could
start with computer malfunctions in Russia that cause
early-warning systems
to give erroneous indications of a missile attack.
Then, under this
hypothetical scenario, Russian President Boris Yeltsin
could order the
activation of the country's ``dead hand'' system, which
ensures nuclear
retaliation in case an attack kills the entire Moscow
leadership. Next, the
Y2K bug could shut down the communication between
Russia's central command
and the ``dead hand'' computer apparatus, which
would proceed to launch
missiles on the basis of the false indications of an
incoming
attack.
And that, according to some disarmament activists, could bring
nuclear
holocaust as Russia sends hundreds of nuclear missiles toward the
United
States.
Much would have to go wrong for such a cataclysmic
event to occur, but such
technical and human error is not absolutely out of
the question, some arms
specialists warn.
Earlier this year, to add
another layer of safety to prevent an accidental
launch, President Clinton
and Yeltsin created a joint Y2K control room at
Peterson Air Force Base in
Colorado Springs. There, Russian and U.S.
officials will sit side-by-side
beginning in late December to minimize the
chances of a Y2K-triggered false
alarm.
But the scenario described above is based on a ``Dr.
Strangelove''-like
system that exists in Russia, notably the ``dead hand''
computer program,
which remains in the hands of Moscow despite the joint
command center in
Colorado.
And the scenario comes against a
backdrop of rising Russian anger against
the United States, the most recent
point of conflict occurring in Clinton's
recent pointed criticism of the
war in Chechnya. Pentagon officials say
Russia has embarked on a campaign
of nuclear muscle-flexing to show its
displeasure, including a recent test
of two submarine-launched missiles and
threats to send nuclear bombers to
Cuba and Vietnam.
But an ongoing worry persists around Russia's
deteriorating and incomplete
early-warning system, underscoring the dangers
of having an estimated 5,000
Russian and U.S. nuclear missiles on a
hair-trigger -- Y2K or no Y2K.
While the missiles no longer are
targeted on cities and nuclear sites, they
are loaded with guidance systems
that, on the U.S. side, can be programmed
in as little time as 10 seconds,
literally a flip of the switch and then two
computer keystrokes, analysts
said.
``Even if the Y2K risks are low, it's important for people to
appreciate the
overall risks here,'' said Bruce Blair, a Brookings
Institution senior
fellow and a recipient this year of a MacArthur
Foundation ``genius grant,''
who has written extensively about possible
doomsday nuclear scenarios,
including the ``dead hand''
possibility.
In the view of Blair and others, Y2K is a unique event,
and thus the threat
cannot be calculated.
``It is inestimable,''
Blair said. ``Anyone who claims to know the
probability of Y2K
early-warning failure in Russia is pulling it out of thin
air.''
In
recent months, U.S. and Russian officials have tried to assure the
public
that Y2K poses no risk of a nuclear shoot-out.
Following a
federal government report on the Y2K problem earlier this month,
the White
House said, ``Y2K problems will not cause nuclear weapons to
launch
themselves. Nuclear weapons launch requires human intervention.''
A
Pentagon official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said the
worries
of Y2K problems with Russia's nuclear system ``have gotten blown way
out of
proportion. We expect minor glitches in Russia, nothing of
great
severity.''
But distrust lingers, even at the joint command
center. U.S. officials will
not share everything from the early-warning
network for fear of giving away
secrets to the Russians, and the Russians
have rejected U.S. requests to set
up another joint Y2K control center in
Russia because of their own wariness
of giving away intelligence
secrets.
Five U.S. arms-control specialists, some working for the
Clinton
administration or Congress and some at universities, have said
recently that
their contacts in Russia have dried up because Russian
intelligence agents
have told scientists to cease contacts with
Americans.
In the past month, the possible Y2K threat has galvanized
many antinuclear
activists, including Helen Caldicott, author Jonathan
Schell and former arms
negotiator Paul Nitze, who have called on Clinton in
full-page newspaper
advertisements to ``de-alert'' thousands of nuclear
missiles. De-alerting
literally means taking missiles off high alert,
removing the hair trigger by
dismantling missile components.
``As
long as the U.S. and Russia see each as potential adversaries, this
is
going to be the situation'' of missiles on hair-trigger, said
Theodore
Postol, professor of science, technology and national security
policy at the
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. ``That will also be
the situation if
one side sees itself as vulnerable to a damaging
strike.''
That now would be Russia, because its nuclear forces are
``extremely
vulnerable to a U.S. strike,'' Postol said. Many Russian
nuclear missiles
are either in silos or are collected together in
corrugated steel buildings,
making them a possible lucrative target in a
nuclear war. Many U.S. nuclear
missiles, in comparison, are on submarines,
which can evade detection.
A U.S. arms-control official, speaking on
condition of anonymity, said
de-alerting would be extremely difficult in
practice because of the
difficulty of verification. ``You have to imagine
all sorts of shenanigans
there would be over verification,'' the official
said. ``Once you mention
the word `verification,' the idea loses some of
its attractiveness.''
But for some arms-control analysts, there seems
little reason to keep so
many missiles on high alert a decade after the
fall of the Berlin Wall.
``What's the threat? Does anybody think there
is going to be a
bolt-out-of-the-blue attack?'' said Joseph Cirincione,
senior associate at
the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a
Washington think tank.
``Does anyone believe that the Russians would do
this for some reason, that
they would try to do a pre-emptive strike? I
think it's just insane at this
point.''
Blair, the Brookings analyst
who has had extensive contacts with Russian
counterparts, said while both
the United States and Russia find a
pre-emptive strike scenario
``bizarre,'' the issue cannot be totally
dismissed because of Russia's
rising distrust of the United States.
Asked if the Y2K doomsday
scenario, which has been so roundly dismissed by
U.S. officials, was cause
for losing sleep, Blair did not respond
reassuringly.
``Why should
you sleep at night? Why should you sleep if nobody knows? Maybe
you need a
sleeping pill,'' he said. ``You can hope and trust that the
probability is
extremely small. But we certainly don't know that.''
--
Dan
S
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