-Caveat Lector-

http://cnn.com/1999/WORLD/africa/12/01/bc.aids.nigeria.reut/index.html
Nigeria on verge of AIDS explosion, says study

December 1, 1999
Web posted at: 12:26 PM EST (1726 GMT)

LAGOS, Nigeria (Reuters) -- Nigeria is on the verge of an AIDS explosion
that could kill millions and wreak untold economic damage, a new report
warned on Thursday.

The study released to coincide with World AIDS day showed overall HIV
infection rates in Africa's most populous nation of 5.4 percent, climbing as
high as 21 percent in the worst affected areas.

"Having reached prevalence of over five percent Nigeria has entered the
stage where the epidemic is likely to increase at an exponential rate if
adequate national response is not mounted," the study said.

Like other West African countries, Nigeria has been less severely affected
by the epidemic than eastern and southern Africa.

But its population of more than 108 million means that it already has more
people infected with the HIV virus which leads to AIDS than many other
African countries.

"This is bound to have a major socio-economic impact on Nigerian society,
including reduced life expectancy, increased burden of medical care,
increase in the number of orphans and decline in economic growth," the
report said.

Researchers say any change in sexual behaviour as a result of fear of
infection has been limited, even following the 1997 death of popular and
extremely promiscuous Afrobeat musician Fela Anikulapo-Kuti from an AIDS
related illness.

Fighting HIV infection has not been the highest priority in a country where
diseases like malaria and diarrhoea kill much more quickly and health
structures are left dilapidated after the end this year of 15 years of
corrupt military rule.

President Olusegun Obasanjo has promised to make the fight against AIDS a
priority despite his other challenges of ending murderous ethnic conflicts
and reviving a moribund economy.

"President Obasanjo said that he was determined to personally lead the
national war against the scourge," a statement from the presidency said on
Wednesday, adding that a comprehensive programme would soon be put in place.

In some parts of Nigeria it is already too late to stop the explosion,
spread mostly by heterosexual intercourse.

The report showed that HIV infection rates had increased by as much as 700
percent in the worst hit regions since the last survey in 1995 and said 4.9
million Nigerians could be infected over the next five years.

United Nations projections released in August showed infection could reach
10 percent of the population by 2005.

Worst hit according to the report are Benue and Taraba states -- two key
agricultural areas -- in northern central Nigeria, southeastern Akwa Ibom
and Ebonyi States, and the big commercial centres of southwestern Lagos and
northern Kaduna.

Copyright 1999 Reuters. All rights reserved. This material may not be
published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.



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