-Caveat Lector-
http://208.138.42.193/forum/a3846aad804bf.htm
Israel Builds China's First AWACS Aircraft
Source: Aviation Week & Space Technology
Published: November 29, 1999
Author: David A. Fulghum
The commander of China's air force, Lt. Gen. Liu Shunyao, and the
nation's president, Jiang Zemin, have both said this month that the
air service will change from a relatively immobile, short-range
force, dedicated to defending the air space around its major bases,
to a modern military arm capable of projecting power across borders
and oceans.
This kind of announcement has been made on a predictable basis
since 1996, when Liu took command of the air force and the first
U.S.-made F-16s were delivered to Taiwan. But in 1999, the
well-worn rhetoric was assigned a more sinister meaning by some in
the U.S. Just as the speeches were delivered, a new, Russian-built,
A-50 airframe arrived at an airport near Tel Aviv. There the
four-engine aircraft is being fitted with an Israeli-designed
Phalcon early warning and airborne control system. The installation
began on Oct. 25 and is slated to be completed by Elta, Israel
Aircraft Industries' electronic subsidiary, in about a year. The
contract reportedly has options for three additional aircraft. Each
of the four aircraft, with radar installed, is to cost $250 million.
A U.S. Air Force official said the Elta radar system will have
three phased-array, L-band antennas set in a triangle inside a
nonrotating dome to give 360-deg. coverage to a range "greater than
190 naut. mi." The low frequency, combined with high-speed
processing and specialized software to eliminate noise, could give
the aircraft some potential for seeing stealth aircraft or cruise
missiles. The antistealth capability is already going into allied
E-3 AWACS with the latest radar improvement package. The system
will have suites for electronic countermeasures (for protecting the
aircraft from attack) and signals intelligence reconnaissance (for
locating and identifying enemy electronic emissions such as
radars). The system will also have the ability to adapt the radar's
search and track priorities, he said.
Israeli officials assured the Clinton Administration that no U.S.
technology was involved, and that the State Dept. had been notified
when the contract was signed in July 1996. The Administration has
asked that the transaction be reconsidered. Israeli officials want
to know why the proposed sale of airborne radars to China by
British firm GEC-Marconi hasn't also been questioned. The British
firm is offering its Argus 2000, a 1970s technology that is
installed in Royal Air Force Nimrod patrol aircraft.
There have been suggestions that there could be some sort of flyoff
between the British and Israeli systems, especially if the Chinese
aren't happy with the IAI system which may be only a "testbed for
validation purposes," a U.S. analyst said. In support of this
scenario, GEC-Marconi officials say they are still in active
negotiations with China to sell their AWACS system and consider
themselves still in the competition. However, U.S. Air Force
officials dismiss the flyoff idea, saying China would not spend
that much money on a demonstration system. They also note that Elta
plans to market the Phalcon system to India, South Korea and Turkey.
DESPITE A KNEE-JERK objection to the sale from conservative
factions in Washington, virtually no one with a knowledge of the
industrial, training, logistics or doctrinal straitjacket worn by
the Chinese military see acquisition of the aircraft as a threat.
While its role would resemble that of the E-3 AWACS flown by NATO,
Britain and the U.S., it would likely be a far simpler aircraft,
the product of a much smaller investment in modern technology. For
example, Elta installed a version of the Phalcon AWACS system on a
Boeing 707 for the Chilean air force several years ago. Because of
the limited funding available when the Chilean system was designed,
the radar is very accurate in determining the azimuth of other
aircraft, but far less so in some other parameters. However, any
AWACS system would give the Chinese aircrews, with practice, enough
capability to operate more than four aircraft together in the same
airspace, a current limitation that stems from the difficulty of
positive air control.
Certainly, China has bought two regiments of Su-27s from Russia and
would like to build 200 indigenously. The government also has
contracted to buy perhaps 40 two-seat Su-30 strike aircraft with
delivery to begin in 2000. China's air force also has a limited
inflight refueling capability with a half-dozen converted H-6 (a
reverse engineered Tu-16) bombers equipped with wing-tip drogues.
And prototypes of an indigenous fighter, the F-10, first flown in
1998, are under construction.
Moreover, after more than two years of negotiations with the
Russians, the Israelis were finally allowed to buy an A-50 Mainstay
AWACS airframe (modified from the Ilyushin II-76 by the Beriev
design bureau to an A-50I configuration), which was flown to Israel
in October. Now, Elta will install some version of its Phalcon
phased-array radar. The completed system would provide early
warning of approaching enemy aircraft and command and control for
Chinese formations.
The aircraft also would be equipped to intercept and monitor enemy
radio conversations and plot the location of electronic emissions
such as radar. Elta is to install the nonrotating, three-sided
antenna it proposed for Australia's Wedgetail early warning and
control aircraft competition and as a follow-on AWACS for the
Chilean air force.
Depending on antenna size and the availability of on-board power,
the radar's range could be as much as 250 mi. at 30,000 ft. Modern
high-speed computer processors and clever software algorithms will
dictate the radar system's capability. For example, long range
means little if mountainous terrain clutters the picture with
spurious returns.
Alarmists tout the AWACS aircraft as a tangible sign that China is
preparing to flex its military muscle, with the goal of
intimidating Taiwan and establishing itself as the major power in
the South China Sea. But those few U.S. analysts who specialize in
the Chinese army's air force and naval air arm paint a far
different picture. They point out that all the new technology has
been procured in piecemeal purchases. They also see an air force
hamstrung by a small aviation industry, a limited defense budget,
poor pilot training and strict military doctrine that prevents
tactical or strategic agility.
A SENIOR U.S. AIR Force official said that even if China buys four
AWACS, the minimum considered necessary to keep a round-the-clock
presence during a conflict, the difficulty of establishing
procedures, building experience and adding communications needed to
make the aircraft an effective combat tool will take the Chinese "a
lot of years."
Long-time Chinese aviation analyst Kenneth Allen (who has just
published a book on China's foreign military relations for the
Henry Stimson Center and wrote the standard work on the Chinese air
force for the Defense Intelligence Agency) said evidence indicates
the lone A-50I would likely be assigned to the 13th Air Div. in
Hubei Province in south-central China where the rest of the small
fleet of 14 similar II-76 transports are stationed along with two
divisions of the 15th Airborne Army. The transports and the
airborne force are part of Chinas fast-reaction force. Hubei is
also the transport fleet's logistics and spare parts supply center,
but it is far from the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea or border
areas where an AWACS could play an offensive role.
Moreover, the navy, air force and missile units that could be used
offensively aren't exercised together and lack necessary
communications. For example, the Air Force's standard F-7 and F-8
fighters don't have the data links to work with AWACS.
Communications would have to be voice, a slow and imprecise method.
The Chinese navy's new F-8-II fighters, stationed on Hainan Island,
are the only aircraft regularly practicing refueling. Not even the
newest Su-27s have the capability.
MOREOVER, THE LENGTH and quality of Chinese aircrew training is
suspect. The average fighter pilot flies only about 100 hr. per
year (as little as 60 hr. for Su-27 pilots), not enough to be
proficient in either air-to-air refueling or AWACS operations.
In addition, "most combat pilots, whether they're Israeli, Indian
or Pakistani, try to find the edge of their aircraft's
performance," a U.S. Air Force analyst said. "But Chinese pilots
fly in the middle of the envelope because they are afraid to damage
or lose an aircraft. Therefore, they don't really know what they
can do in a dogfight. Even though they bought the Su-27 because of
its maneuverability, I doubt if any Chinese pilot has ever tried
the Cobra [a spectacular air show maneuver showcased by Russian
test pilots]."
Because of these technology, training and air-to-air missile
limitations, "except for the Su-27, their aircraft can't conduct a
head-on attack against other fighters," the analyst said. "It's
hard to be offensive when you are limited to a rear-hemisphere,
ground control intercept vectored [attack]." Most pilots fire one
air-to-air missile in their career, and even that limited training
is a relatively new phenomenon, he said.
Moreover, training is unlikely to increase because Chinese
officials want to avoid the very expensive overhauls that often
must be done in Russia. Aircraft overhauled in China take six
months or more to return to service. Those sent to Russia take 10
months. Even with such precautions, at some point soon the Su-27
fleet, which China began receiving in 1992, will have to start
rotating to Russia for overhaul.
LOGISTICS AND SPARE parts also put a damper on training or
offensive operations. Doctrinally, Chinese units keep a year of
spares on hand at their home base. Deploying takes a long time
because spares and supplies must be moved by train. Such strains on
the logistics system dictate short deployments. During the border
conflict with Vietnam in 1979, it took the Chinese air force 45
days to move 700 aircraft to the border. Once there, the
operational tempo averaged one flight for each aircraft every four
days. Not a single sortie was flown into Vietnamese airspace.
Trying to put the A-50 purchase into perspective, analysts note
that China's acquisition organization, the Central Military
Commission, is becoming more and more reliant on outside sources
for new technology and support. Purchases like the AWACS are only
going to reinforce that dependency.
Finally, some suggest, if you want a potential foe to have
electronic, computer-based systems that can be penetrated
surreptitiously with information warfare tools, it's a far easier
task if those systems are provided by a U.S. ally. That kind of
back-channel access worked for the U.S. when French contractors
supplied details of Iraq's air defense network before the start of
the air war in 1991. Baghdad's air defense computers were quickly
disabled and the missile and radar sites shattered during the first
few hours of the allied attack.
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1 Posted on 12/02/1999 09:22:32 PST by Stand Watch Listen
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