'OPERATION SURETY' [With additional Sunday Times and Executive Intelligence Review articles added below] Martial Law To Be Imposed On Streets Of Britain? by Mark Ian Birdsall Although much has been said and written about the potential dangers posed by the millennium bug, the vast majority of ordinary Britons remain oblivious to top secret Government plans that could, if the situation calls for it, impose Martial law on the streets of Britain. The Government has successfully manipulated media reporting of how it plans to deal with any millennium bug (or Y2K) crisis to instill blanket calm and public indifference to the dangers that may lie ahead. Comparisons with how other nations plan to deal with the millennium bug are often made, but so often whenever someone abroad issues a warning of dire consequences to come, they are either ignored or dismissed as scaremongers or crackpots. So, how's this for a comparison: The millennium bug represents the greatest threat to peacetime Britain since the Second World War. Scaremongering? Absolutely not. That is the judgement of those who sit in high office and who will ultimately determine what course of action to take should the situation manifestly deteriorate once the clock chimes midnight on new year's eve. The plans have been carefully laid, but no one can say with absolute certainty that they will cope with the aftermath of a worst case scenario. And incredulously, all that the British people have been provided with in the way of explaining what the millennium bug may be capable of, is a small yellow government advice booklet that came free with their favourite Sunday newspaper. Understandably, the British Government always intended that the booklet should act as a calming influence. No one expected it would contain references to the many uncertainties that may yet impinge on our ordinary way of life. "What the public doesn't know, don't tell them." We suspect that phrase will have been uttered and debated many times over during the lengthy process involved in compiling the booklet. EXPOSING THE DECEIT The Year 2000 Team (CITU) is the official British Government body within the Cabinet Office "responsible for monitoring and pushing forward progress on dealing with the date change problem". In a letter dated 11 May, 1999, CITU official, Mr J.G. Hicks, addressed a number of contentious issues we have helped highlight in the Unopened Files and during public lectures. Mr Hicks's comments were in direct response to a letter submitted by reader Mr. R. Grant of Ashford in Kent who attended one of those lectures at the University of Westminster, London, on 3 July. Mr Grant wanted to know if it were true that the British Government planned to put troops on the streets as part of 'Operation Abacus'. Mr Hicks replied: 'I have to say that I have not come across the term "Operation Abacus".' Mr Hicks could do worse than to note the following: On Thursday, 10 December, 1998, representatives from at least 80 nations, and possibly as many as 120, arrived at United Nations headquarters in New York City to confront the so-called Y2K problem. The Gartner Group, leaders in Y2K analysis worldwide, reported that no more than two dozen nations were actively working on the problem. "The consequences of unpreparedness in any one country can rapidly spill over to other parts of the world," said Pakistani Ambassador Ahmad Kamal, the conference organiser. John Koskinen, who chairs the U.S. government's effort to prepare for Y2K said: "The goal is to work together to identify and address issues that go across borders." UN organisers required that every nation taking part in the conference must name an official who would attend the session and serve as that government's Y2K leader. On Friday, 11 December, 1998, the conference delegates encouraged organisers to coordinate the sharing of information and contingency plans. John Koskinen, chairman of the United States' President's Council on the Year 2000 Conversion, told delegates: "We have two years' worth of work to do in a year's time." Acknowledging that with just over a year until the brunt of the problems hit, some failures are inevitable, the group spent much of the day discussing how nations can develop contingency plans. One suggestion was to set up 'SWAT Teams' that could move swiftly into the hardest hit areas with technical assistance. The coordinated effort would be known as 'Operation Abacus'. Although not a member of NATO, last November, Israel became the third nation, after Canada and the UK, to announce military operations related to the Y2K crisis. The code name for Israel's Y2K preparations is 'Operation Abacus' according to the New York Post. The paper claimed that the Israeli Government has allocated $10 million to counter possible millennium attacks on Jerusalem's Temple Mount by messianic Christians or Jewish extremists. According to the Toronto Globe and Mail, the Canadian Army is studying everything from the number of flashlights and batteries it will need if power is cut for weeks, to which military air-traffic-control field equipment should be set up at civilian airports. Logistics officers are plotting where to position supplies, fuel, tents, cots and other equipment. All branches of the Armed Service have been told that the "planning for the Year 2000 computer crisis is their highest priority and will be the focus of all training from January (1999) on." Last September, Ottawa sent a 24-page order to all Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) commanders, regional headquarters and reserve units. The order stated: "There is potential for disruption of major infrastructure systems... that may require Canadian Forces support to civil authorities." Navy captains were advised that their frigates may be docked in large seaports "to provide garrisons, power plants, field hospitals and soup kitchens". In the October 1998 issue of Maple Leaf, Lt. Gen. Roy Crabbe, recently retired Deputy Chief of Defence, wrote: "As far as Christmas (1999) goes, I don't think you can deploy 60,000 troops away from their homes at Christmas, especially from a morale point of view. I'm not sure you can say the same for New Year's Eve." The code name for the deployment was given as 'Operation Abacus,' with military activities planned for Toronto, Montreal, Calgary and Vancouver. So much for Israel and Canada, but the New York Times included the UK in its list of 'Operation Abacus' participants. This stemmed from the publication of secret Whitehall plans, leaked last December, to call up thousands of UK Territorial Army reservists to deal with civil unrest sparked by the Year 2000 Computer Crisis. 'Operation Abacus' would see the biggest deployment of Territorial Army troops since the outbreak of WWII in 1939. In a secret letter obtained by the Sunday Mirror, officers from British Army reserves were said to have been put on alert to deal with the chaos of new year's eve 1999 and to cope with possible civil unrest and communications disasters as the year 2000 begins. Army officer reservists were asked about their availability between 22 December, 1999 and 9 January, 2000. The letter was posted from the Army Reservist Communications Centre at the Ministry of Defence (MoD) headquarters in Whitehall. It says problems on a national scale are expected, and it provided the first clear indication that troops will be on stand-by to cope with the expected millennium bug chaos. Intriguingly, the letter made special reference to new reservist legislation with sections on civil unrest, defence of the nation, resources and national security. Major UK metropolitan areas that may be affected by deployment were listed in the letter and included London, Liverpool, Bristol, Manchester, Birmingham, Leeds, Sheffield, Southampton, Newcastle-upon-Tyne, plus Edinburgh and Glasgow in Scotland and Cardiff in Wales. While not confirming that the letter had been sent, an MoD spokesman said at the time: "Clearly the Army stands by for any form of assistance that civil authorities feel they need over the millennium." Did the New York Times and Sunday Mirror both dream up 'Operation Abacus'? Of course not. Why then should Mr J. G. Hicks of the Cabinet Office state that he has never come across the term? It beggars belief. But Mr Hicks went one better in his follow-up comments when he added: 'You may wish to know that there are no special preparations for involving HM Forces over the date change period because of the bug.' In light of what was known as far back as last December, what are we to make of this extraordinary denial? To be fair, Mr Hicks was responding to concerns expressed by an ordinary member of the British public. He had no reason to suspect that we would get to see a copy of his letter - one that would lead to a charge that the Cabinet Office is deliberately espousing disinformation and lies. Elsewhere in his letter, Mr Hicks assures Mr Grant that 'all current evidence suggests that there will be no material disruption to food distribution as a result of the date change problem'. But later, he introduces an extraordinary caveat into the equation with the following stunning 'get-out' clause: 'There is little that can be done to discourage those irresponsible individuals who create computer viruses and the Government deplores their actions'. Do these words represent an advance warning of the excuse we can expect to hear should the Government find itself having to explain a myriad of Y2K problems it couldn't cope with? Unlike America, few in Britain have given much consideration to the idea that they should stockpile food and essential supplies to cope with the millennium bug. And who can blame them? After all, Mr Hicks claims there will be 'no material disruption to food distribution'. Yet Gwyneth Flowers, chairperson of the UK's 'Taskforce 2000,' did a surprising about-face one week after warning Britons to stockpile food. Ms. Flowers, who heads the task force set up by the Ministry of Trade and Industry to deal with the Year 2000 computer crisis, told newsmen on 11 December, 1998: "We are talking about people having a judicious amount of surplus food in their kitchen cupboards." Two days later, according to The Observer, Ms. Flowers hastily backtracked, issuing a second statement, claiming that the UK media had taken her first statement out of context. "The big thing is that they don't need to tell everyone they don't need to take any specific action. We don't want people hoarding." And that final sentence probably accounts for the comments made by Mr Hicks, who seemingly ignores the fact that every water company in England and Wales has been hoarding bottled water supplies and diesel fuel for the best part of eighteen months. Even though the British Government's own watchdog, the National Audit Office has warned of "life threatening" situations, "contaminated water supplies" and potential "disasters", you won't find any reference to these in the Government's little yellow booklet. While the American Red Cross is advising people to stockpile money alongside basic supplies of non-perishable food, bottled water and medications in case computer failures cripple the country, ordinary Britons are being kept in the dark. American banks are amassing an extra $50 billion (£30.5 billion) to deal with the situation. Their concerns centre on 'embedded chips' within the banks' mainframe computers, which records dates as two digits and may therefore confuse the year 2000 with 1900. It is embedded chips within some 30,000 water treatment and sewage plants here in England and Wales that threatens supplies to millions. With that comes the risk of disease and infection, and even a minor outbreak could put a severe strain on NHS resources. Were such an outbreak to hit a medium-sized town, or several in one go, the consequences could be dire. Were it to hit one or more cities, then the NHS simply couldn't cope. Speaking with an electricity worker in the Thames Valley region back on 4 July, he volunteered the fact that he and the rest of his colleagues had been instructed to work over the entire new year period. "We've been told we can forget Christmas and the New Year" he said. "It's frightening. Our people have been working on this for months, but right now we don't know what to expect. They fear a total breakdown, and have told us that if the National Grid goes down, it will take at least a month to bring it back on line. "That's no electricity for a month, so it's hardly surprising no one will speak publicly about it." Y2K - "A REAL THREAT AND HIGHLY CLASSIFIED" According to an 18 July article by Hugh McManners, Defence Correspondent for the Sunday Times, the SAS and other special services are to deal with outbreaks of civil disorder and the collapse of utilities under secret plans being drawn up by the armed forces to cope with the millennium bug. The plans, code-named 'Operation Surety,' will see the special forces and other armed troops deployed to protect not only key government sites but also civilian installations such as banks, airports and power stations if their security systems fail. The extent of the military's role was disclosed as some 2,000 British combat troops sent to Kosovo were withdrawn at the end of August. A Ministry of Defence (MoD) source said 'Operation Surety,' drawn up over 18 months by a small team of specialists at the Permanent Joint Headquarters in Northwood, Middlesex, had been given the "highest military priority" after active operations in Kosovo. "The operation is designed to ensure that essential government and civilian functions can continue between September and February next year, which is the period of danger. It's a real threat and highly classified," said the source. Soldiers would also support the emergency services in handling disruption and accidents caused by the failure of electricity, water supplies or telephones through the inability of many computer systems to cope with the date change from 1999 to 2000. Planners fear that computer failures could leave installations vulnerable to criminal or terrorist attack. Armed troops, some with light tanks and heavy weapons, will be deployed to guard likely targets such as airports. In the worst scenario, some form of martial law might be necessary in localised areas. In his letter of 11 May, Mr. J.G. Hicks wrote: 'The Financial Services Authority's (FSA) responsibilities include maintaining confidence in the UK's financial system and protection of customers.' He added: 'Earlier this year the FSA reported that the financial services sector had made good progress in tackling the Year 2000 computer problem but accepted that there was no room for complacency.' According to the Sunday Times, eight leading financial institutions have asked the MoD for protection. Individual chief constables will call for military back-up if security system failures lead to looting and civil disorder. The army will provide transport, communications, medical help and food supplies, as well as armed security. Fifty military postmen will ensure that government mail gets through. Army motorcycle dispatch riders will deliver secret government documents by hand if electronic transmissions are disrupted. The Royal Navy will concentrate on the English Channel which has the highest density of shipping in the world. The Royal Marines' counter-terrorist unit based at Arbroath and the Special Boat Squadron will be on stand-by to board ships in trouble. Military sources say the plan will also take troops overseas. "Even if everything goes well in the UK, a number of foreign governments are not taking the millennium bug seriously. Some Muslim countries believe it is purely a 'Christian' problem." RAF air traffic control teams will be ready to fly to any destination where the millennium bug threatens air routes. The Para's and Royal Marines will be ready to rescue British nationals caught in chaos abroad. A decision on whether leave for the armed services should be cancelled over the millennium will be taken after September, when the extent of the problem could emerge. The military has been testing its new communications systems over recent months. Problems have been discovered and senior officers say they may have to rely on older radio technology. "For the time being we've gone back to simple and very old-fashioned procedures that we know will at least work," said one officer. The military also plans to test all its weapons and electronic systems after 1 January so that no hidden glitches threaten Britain's security. We can exclusively reveal that one of the tried and trusted old-fashioned communication procedures involves the use of Morse Code. Although Morse Code officially came to an end last year, Britain's armed forces are increasingly using the system, as are diplomatic missions and embassies. Given these recent revelations, it is hard to believe that Mr J. G. Hicks would write in his letter of 11 May: 'You may wish to know that there are no special preparations for involving HM Forces over the date change period because of the bug.' Either he knew nothing of 'Operation Surety' at the time of writing or he was deliberately concealing the truth. Which are we to believe? Would such an official within the Cabinet Office be ignorant of such carefully laid plans? Plans that have been drafted in secrecy over an eighteen month period but did not involve the very arm of government ultimately responsible for 'monitoring and pushing forward progress on dealing with the date change problem'? Once again, it beggars belief. The deployment of Royal Marines to cope with potential Y2K problems at sea is intriguing. On 9 September, the Global Positioning Satellite (GPS) system safely overcame its 20-year computer clock readjustment without too many reported difficulties. However, the Maritime and Coastguard Agency deployed three emergency tugs, chartered by the Government, just in case. A spokeswoman for the agency said that they take the millennium bug issue "very seriously" indeed. "All vessels are computer-run to a certain extent," she explained. Ship owners who have failed to upgrade systems or 'debug' them could find them sailing out of control. As millions of Britons celebrate the New Year, the three ships will be on station at Stornoway in the Outer Hebrides (Anglian Prince), Falmouth (Sar Turbot) and Dover (Mirana). PUBLIC SAFETY CONCERNS Although Y2K problems may occur on and above the sea, what of regions below it? Eurotunnel has announced it will test the safety of the channel tunnel on millennium night itself - by using its own staff on empty trains. Although Eurotunnel's freight and passenger shuttles between Folkestone and Calais is to be closed to the public between 10.00pm on 31 December and 6.00am on 1 January, staff will still run the trains on an hourly basis. A driver and a guard will travel in the rear coach. Eurotunnel said the main problem they envisage on millennium night was the continuity of electricity supplies from French, as well as British operators. France celebrates the millennium one hour before Britain and a Eurotunnel spokesman said: "If one of the utilities has difficulties, that could have an immediate impact." The spokesman added: "We are confident the system will be all right, but we do not want to take any risks with our staff. We have drawn up contingency plans in the unlikely event of anything going wrong." Eurotunnel's plans were condemned by Jimmy Knapp, general secretary of the Rail, Maritime and Transport Union. He said they were "callous and high-handed". "It is disingenuous of Eurotunnel to say staff are not being used as guinea pigs. That is what they are," said Mr Knapp. "The company is excluding passengers because of what might happen, so staff will have to carry the can. Staff should only volunteer for duty if they are properly recompensed. They are being put at risk." A much larger group of people who may well be at risk from the millennium bug are airline passengers. Another scare story? Not when you begin to ask why no flights will be allowed in or out of New Zealand over the New Year. And, as we have already noted, the Australian airline Qantas is seriously considering grounding its entire fleet - just in case. However, Dutch airline KLM has already gone on record as saying that its entire worldwide fleet of aircraft will remain on the ground over the new year - just in case. So, what are we to make of this? One extraordinary fact has emerged during our research. The International Air Transport Association (IATA), the airlines governing body, has spent £12.5 million on a study of 331 airports and 134 air traffic control centres around the world to see how they are coping with the millennium bug problem. However, they have refused to release the findings of their study, including a request to do so by the British Government. It is claimed that some of Europe's busiest airports and air traffic control centres have fallen seriously behind in their plans to deal with the millennium bug. Destinations such as the three main Paris airports, as well as others in Spain, Italy, Romania and at Luton in England may be unable to complete the work needed to eliminate the Y2K problem by the end of the year. Experts have predicted "chaos" and warned that passengers "could be at risk". These airports are believed to be included in an "at risk" category drawn up by the IATA. To add to the growing unease about flight safety, Robin Guernier, executive director of Taskforce 2000, said: "There's a lot of fear that some airports and air traffic control centres are not going to be ready." According to an insider at Luton airport: "They've done very little," adding that the airport may have to close over the new year. This was denied by Barry Foord, Luton's systems and IT manager. He said that one third of their computer systems would be tested in situ, but the rest would not. The airport would instead rely on the manufacturers to guarantee that their equipment was millennium-compliant. He said he believed Luton would be safe. Elsewhere in Europe, the risk to passengers is starkly demonstrated by the fact that airports in Paris, Rome and Madrid are some way from resolving the Y2K problem. And if you are choosing to travel to Italy in the new year, be advised that Naples, the country's third-busiest airport, with 3.5 million passengers a year, has admitted it does not expect to become millennium-compliant until June, 2000. A fifth of Rome's Leonardo da Vinci airport software, including air traffic control systems, has yet to be checked, for they refused to conduct tests during the peak holiday season for fear of disrupting their entire computer system. In Spain, 30% of computer systems in the country's 40 airports and five air traffic control centres have yet to be tested. Antonio Villalon, manager of information systems at the Spanish civil aviation authority, said "flaws had been found in software that processed the flight plans of aircraft". He added: "There are a lot of other problems that we do not know about." "WE WILL BE CRUCIFIED" Wherever there is doubt and uncertainty over how a nation is tackling the millennium bug, the immediate question that comes to mind is: how may one country's unpreparedness effect others? Will Russia, for instance, succeed in making safe all of the embedded chips in its vast, but outdated nuclear industry? The Russian Government has sought to reassure its neighbours and the West that it can cope, but by refusing to allow outside independent bodies to monitor their progress, we can only take their word that 'everything will be all right on the night'. Cast your mind back to what Pakistani Ambassador Ahmad Kamal had to say at the United Nations last December: "The consequences of unpreparedness in any one country can rapidly spill over to other parts of the world." Few doubt his words ring true, but most will be shocked to discover that the nation currently singled out as being the most likely to create havoc is not Russia, but Italy. With the deadline fast approaching, Romano Oneda, education expert on Italy's Year 2000 Committee, said: "Italy is going to crash, and we are going to be crucified. We are supposed to make things go so smoothly that nobody would realise there was ever a problem. Instead we will be the scapegoats." The committee have been given a paltry budget of £2 million to put right the nation's problems, but they have no powers to force companies or government departments to comply. Computer software expert Roberto Di Maritino, who sits on the committee, said: "Even now, no executive wants to tell his company they have to spend both time and money on this." Persuading Italy's transport and communications sector to face up to Y2K has proved almost impossible for committee member Augusto Leggio, who says the problem was "so vast there is no point in getting hysterical". He cites Italy's Interior Ministry, which controls the police and immigration services as a case in point. It was hoping to be millennium compliant by the end of the year, but Leggio says it will be July 2000 at the earliest. "I don't think they have grasped what this is all about." The millennium is expected to draw millions of visitors to Rome to see in the New Year in the Eternal City, but the Vatican and Italy's tourist industry fear many will stay away because of the country's apathy towards Y2K. Rome's daily newspaper, the Il Messaggero, highlighted the dangers ahead in a stinging editorial: 'Imagine the dawn of the new millennium. Twenty six million people have come to the Eternal City. But traffic lights and automatic banking machines are out of order, the airport is in chaos, food and water are running out. There could be panic and disorder. If you have to chose a day to be ill, fly on an aeroplane or get in a lift, avoid Italy in December 31.' According to one survey conducted as recently as May, only 2 per cent of Italians had heard of the problem. The Y2K campaign in Italy has been put in the hands of Professor Ernesto Bettinelli, former junior Minister for Public Administration. But his is only a part time position - he still teaches constitutional law at Padua University. The committee operates from rooms within the Ministry of Tourism, has a staff of six, one secretary and the use of three telephones. It can call on the expertise of 22 officials from the banking, transport and food distribution industries, but these experts are unpaid volunteers. Professor Bettinelli said: "It is rather like Italy's experience with qualifying for the euro. Italy often starts late and then makes up for lost time with bursts of acceleration." Valeria Severini, a leading Italian economist, predicted that the millennium bug would see a huge downturn in industrial output throughout much of next year. "Fiat's computer system went down for six days in May, even though they had spent £50 million on a debugging programme." By late August, Italy's bureaucracy was already grinding to a halt as attempts to make computers millennium compliant made little progress. Social security and pension payments are now being made by hand, and only a handful of the country's hospitals have taken punitive measures to combat the problem. The vast majority will risk systems failures. Most Italians smile when asked about the potential dangers, pointing out that Italian life has been 'organised chaos' for years. That is of little comfort to Italy's neighbouring states and the world's financial institutions. STAY INFORMED The Sunday Times revelations that Tony Blair and his Government had sanctioned the possible introduction of marshal law onto the streets of Britain received little (if any) subsequent media coverage. Most Britons still believe that all talk of plans for the millennium revolve around how best and where to celebrate the new year, not where best to position tanks and troops around banks and airports. "It's a real threat and highly classified," reported the Sunday Times. What lay behind that statement was never destined to appear in the government's little yellow booklet for fear of shocking millions of Britons over Sunday breakfast. For now, all we are expected to do is keep our fingers crossed and have faith in the Government's expressed view that disruption to our way of life will be minuscule. But this is a blind faith, because they are not telling all that they know, nor all that they fear. It is a scandalous state of affairs. We suspect that the true scale of those problems will inevitably surface through the mass media as the millennium draws ever closer, so now is as good a time as any to at least discuss these vital issues with those around you and stay well informed. Just in case... IN CASE YOU MISSED IT... * New Zealand has imposed a one-day no-fly-zone over the islands to take effect on 31 December, 1999. International flights will not be allowed to land in the country that day. New Zealand has also joined the roster of NATO countries planning to contain and control civil unrest caused by the Year 2000 computer problem. Authorities there are expected to call for help from the military in the event of civil unrest caused by Y2K. In a closed-door session, officials from 86 territories met to discuss the likelihood of failures and how the public will react. All military units will be on stand-by on New Year's Eve under 'Operation Abacus' and have been warned that no holidays will be granted at this time. * In Australia, Qantas Airlines have announced a possible cutback in flight services due to Y2K. "QANTAS planes will only fly if it is safe to do so. Therefore, some contingency plans may reduce frequency of flight," said a QANTAS spokesman. * On 1 May, 1999, the USA Department of Defense (DoD) and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) conducted a nationwide practice mobilisation of Army National Guard troops in preparation of civil unrest relating to the Y2K 'Millennium Bug'. Lt. Col. Kirk Krist, a spokesman for the Pentagon's Y2K Task Force, said the exercise was just a test of the Army's communications system in the event of Y2K-related blackouts and not a dress rehearsal for... 'Operation Abacus'. "We have officially changed the name to COMMUNICATIONS CPX to avoid any assumptions that we plan to mobilise the entire National Guard on 31 December 1999. We do not plan to do that," explained Lt. Col. Krist. "The purpose of the exercise... is to test the high-frequency radio network the Guard will use in the event there is a failure of telephone communications" as a result of the expected Y2K computer crisis. Over 460,000 National Guardsmen participated in the three-day exercise - that's a heck of a lot of manpower required to test a telephone system. * A rumoured secret underground base at Belconnen, in the Australian Capital Territory (ACT) near Canberra, may be used to oversee potential problems associated with Y2K, or the 'Millennium Bug' according to Australian sources. Known as the 'Sheep Paddock' the base is said to be located beneath an actual pasture in the Great Dividing Range near Canberra. Within the field are several antennae arrays and a small cinder-block security building that houses an elevator to the underground command post. "There are at least three stories underground while on the third level, staff members man computer terminals," said a source. Some Belconnen residents believe that the supposed base will serve as a national command post during civil unrest in Australia caused by Y2K. * High-street banks have ordered £8 billion of extra cash in time for December amid fears that the Millennium Bug will prompt widespread hoarding of money. The figure is equivalent to a third of the total cash currently in circulation. The banks know there will be a huge surge in demand over millennium week as customers withdraw unprecedented amounts to pay for parties and presents. The big question remains however; whether customers will withdraw large amounts of money - perhaps even their entire life savings - for fear the Millennium Bug will disable bank computers or wipe out accounts. In Britain, banks are confident their computer systems will not crash, but could still face huge problems caused by nervous account-holders stockpiling cash. Dr. Jane Horton, lecturer in accounting and finance at the London School of Economics, said: "If one person starts taking out money, then more and more will follow. The banks may have problems matching that outflow of cash with their own investment. "It depends on the solvency of the bank - if 80% of the clients start taking their money out of one of the weaker banks, then it could go bankrupt." Some banks have launched a public relations exercise to persuade customers that their money will be safe as the new millennium dawns. APACS, the group which oversees Britain's main cheque clearance and payment systems, is conducting monthly surveys asking members of the public how much they intend to withdraw over the festive period. So far the responses are described as "very comforting", but they remain cautious. "We know a small proportion of people are worried so we are looking to be very flexible and will have very large quantities of cash available," said a spokesman. * On Tuesday, 16 February, the National Audit Office (NAO), the government watchdog, warned Britain's utility regulators that more work was "urgently need to protect the public from potential life-threatening disasters" caused by Year 2000 computer failures in the water (Ofwat), gas (Ofgas), electricity (Offer) and telecoms industries (Oftel). All the regulators were criticised for placing too much reliance on assurances given by utility companies that their respective preparations for the Year 2000 are well underway. In their report, the NAO warned that computer failures caused by an inability to recognise dates at the turn of the year could jeopardise essential services and cause serious economic damage if electricity, gas or water supplies were disrupted. The report stated: "Such failures could threaten loss of life, for example, if people could not call an ambulance because their telephone did not work, if they could not heat their home, or if contaminated water entered the public supply." In its conclusions, the report said that regulators have inadequate knowledge of what companies are doing to address the problem and gave a stark warning that some companies would not be Y2K compliant until well into the second half of the year; and that certain regulators were relying on assurances rather than seeking independent assessment of the preparedness of the companies. According to the NAO, all the key utility companies have drawn up inventories of systems that could face potential problems. Twenty five companies told their regulators that they expected to be millennium-compliant by the end of last year with a further 29 ready by the first half of 1999. However, 11 utilities, ten of which are water companies, did not expect to be ready until the end of 1999. Moreover, the NAO insisted that checking systems is not enough and accused the regulators of having little information on the companies' contingency plans to deal with disasters. "Companies need to allow for the possibility that equipment and systems may still fail as a result of the millennium problem," stated the report. * In the United States, 100,000 people are set to evacuate every major city at the year's end. Bryan Elder, an Arkansas hydraulics specialist told Time magazine: "Hell starts 1 January, 2000, when the lights go out." In the same publication, Dr. Mark Neuenshwander, head of Colorado's 'AD2000 Crisis Relief Task Force,' predicted potential Y2K problems in the medical field, citing anaesthesia machines, ICU monitors, intravenous pumps and chemotherapy equipment as among those most at risk. Dr. Neuenshwander also expressed concerns about stockpiling of emergency food supplies and rations: "Our goal is not to hoard... there will be bloodshed if people hoard," he said. * British hospitals are no different to their American counterparts in having to eradicate Y2K problems, but while some have been given the 'all clear', others are by no stretch of the imagination out of the woods. *Along with the rest of the emergency services, all police leave has been cancelled for this period and troops will be on hand to assist wherever needed. New Year's Eve celebrations normally result in a surge of hospital admissions, but everyone agrees that 1 January, 2000 will not be a 'normal' day. * There is one further chilling aspect to the risks associated with Y2K that British politicians dare not mention - nuclear fallout. The Pentagon has insisted that all its "mission critical" computers will be fixed by 31 December 1999. But nuclear weapons systems in all nations - including Russia, where the state of Y2K preparations is anybody's guess - are computer dependent. Last November, the British-American Security Information Council, a nuclear disarmament group, warned that a Y2K glitch could lead to erroneous early-warning reports or even trigger the accidental launch of a nuclear missile. Nuclear power plants, they said, could be vulnerable to the same difficulties. Last year, when the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission looked at the Seabrook plant in New Hampshire, it found that Y2K problems, unless fixed, would affect the computers that monitored such crucial functions as reactor-coolant levels and fuel-handling systems. If there were to be a nuclear accident in Russia, the resultant radiation fallout would effect huge swathes of mainland Europe and beyond. "Nothing should be taken at face value when it comes to government assurances," warns Dr. Mark Neuenshwander. Replies, comments etc to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] As Editor of "The Unopened Files", Mark Ian Birdsall has few qualms about upsetting officials when featuring matters he deems to be in the public interest. "We don't have a problem with any Government when it comes to issues of national security". Plainly, there are sound arguments for concealing all manner of things away from the public and the eyes of inquisitive journalists. But history tells us that Governments lie, politicians lie and military and intelligence officials would much prefer that nothing ever leaks out about their activities - period."I'm not a conspiracy theorist, I leave that to others. What we deal with are cold, hard facts, presented in no nonsense fashion that will generate interest and augment, rather than silence the debate. I'm proud of the issues we have featured in the past couple of years, and while we may have made quite a few enemies along the way, we have won over a small army of admirers around the world for helping to expose corruption, murder and any number of despot tyrants and organisations who persistently flout the law, democracy, free speech and human rights. "In a small, but significant way, we will continue to uphold these basic fundamental rights on behalf of ordinary people everywhere". http://www.ufomag.co.uk/index.htm ============================================ >http://www.the-times.co.uk/news/pages/Sunday-Times/frontpage.html?2294202 > Sunday-Times UK >July 18 1999 BRITAIN > >Soldiers pull out of Kosovo to deal with millennium bug chaos > >by Hugh McManners >Defence Correspondent > > >THE SAS and other special services are to deal with outbreaks of civil >disorder and the collapse of utilities under secret plans being drawn up by >the armed forces to cope with the millennium bug. > >The plans, codenamed Operation Surety, will see the special forces and other >armed troops deployed to protect not only key government sites but also >civilian installations such as banks, airports and power stations if their >security systems fail. > >The extent of the military's role has been disclosed as the armed services >prepare for the critical date of September 9, or 9/9/99, when the scale of >the computer chaos could become apparent. > >Half the combat troops are to be withdrawn from Kosovo by the end of August, >a total of up to 2,000 soldiers. > >A Ministry of Defence (MoD) source said Operation Surety, drawn up over 18 >months by a small team of specialists at the Permanent Joint Headquarters in >Northwood, Middlesex, had been given the highest military priority after >active operations in Kosovo. > >"The operation is designed to ensure that essential government and civilian >functions can continue between September and February next year, which is >the period of danger. It's a real threat and highly classified," said the >source. > >Soldiers would also support the emergency services in handling disruption >and accidents caused by the failure of electricity, water supplies or >telephones through the inability of many computer systems to cope with the >date change from 1999 to 2000. > >Planners fear that computer failures could leave installations vulnerable to >criminal or terrorist attack. Armed troops, some with light tanks and heavy >weapons, will be deployed to guard likely targets such as airports. In the >worst scenario, some form of martial law might be necessary in localised >areas. > >Eight leading financial institutions have asked the MoD for protection. >Individual chief constables will call for military back-up if security >system failures lead to looting and civil disorder. > >The army will provide transport, communications, medical help and food >supplies, as well as armed security. Fifty military postmen will ensure that >government mail gets through. Army motorcycle dispatch riders will deliver >secret government documents by hand if electronic transmissions are >disrupted. [...] >http://www.the-times.co.uk/news/pages/Sunday-Times/frontpage.html?2294202 > ============================================ This article appeared in the August 20, 1999 issue of Executive Intelligence Review. Is World War III coming? by Lyndon H. LaRouche, Jr. Democratic Presidential pre-candidate Lyndon H. LaRouche, Jr. issued the following statement on Aug. 11. Among those who are paying attention to reality, one of the two big questions of the day is, "Is Nuclear World War III Now Inevitable?" My answer is, that I believe it is not inevitable; but, the danger is serious enough that serious people will ask themselves that question. ====Snip=====Snip====Snip=====Snip====Snip=====Snip "Operation Surety," to go into effect, beginning September 9, 1999. This operation is designed to anticipate a deadly social crisis's eruption under the conditions of the world financial meltdown expected for the interval between September 9, 1999 and the close of the year. No one I know--and I do have many high-level sources in various parts of the world--can give me a definite date, other than "soon, perhaps next week, perhaps October," for the expected date of the chain-reaction collapse of the world's financial system. However, that kind of collapse, of a kind far worse than October 1929, is already onrushing; it is not something which could happen; it is something which, in fact, is already happening. The intervention of the effects of this world financial collapse into the present strategic situation, automatically and immediately changes all of the determining parameters of the worldwide strategic situation. No existing government could last long enough to carry out a pro-warfare posture effectively under such circumstances. Notable is the situation in Russia itself. Whatever else may happen there, and there are many possibilities, virtually all extremely dramatic ones, the present situation in Russia is not to be expected to last past the end of September, if that long. Were I President of the U.S.A., I would know how to deal with this mess. Given the very advanced state of sundry presently ongoing world crises, I could not guarantee success, but I am the only figure who might have a chance of success.
