-Caveat Lector- WJPBR Email News List [EMAIL PROTECTED] Peace at any cost is a prelude to war! STRATFOR.COM Global Intelligence Update December 3, 1999 Occasion for Pan-Asian Cooperation Summary Asia is on the threshold of abandoning its longstanding policy of non-interference. On Nov. 2, Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad called on the region to form a pan-Asian security structure to promote peaceful cooperation. His move echoes a growing paradigm shift, as Asian countries begin to realize that threats to individual nations' stability threaten that of the entire region. The ongoing separatist struggles in Indonesia have strengthened this sentiment; the 10 ASEAN members, and Japan, China and South Korea have announced that they stand behind Indonesia's sovereignty. Although they now lack the military capability to support their stand, Asian nations are moving faster than ever toward acting like a regional bloc. Analysis Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad has called for a pan- Asian security force. On Dec. 2, he urged Asian nations to "forget the war which was fought 50 years ago," in order to join together to maintain peace in the region. Mahathir suggested that China and Japan could play leading roles. While a unified security structure is likely years away, Mahathir's statement unmistakably articulates an ongoing shift in Asian governments' attitudes. The region is becoming increasingly convinced that its historical policy of non-interference in each others' domestic affairs is no longer adequate. Since World War II, Asian nations have followed a doctrine of non- interference in regional relations. Each nation has dealt with its own internal security issues. In recent years, regional events have challenged that policy. Asian countries are beginning to realize that the instability of individual countries affects the security of the entire region. For example, the region-wide currency crisis in 1997, as well as the ongoing recovery, has shown Asian nations that their economies are closely intertwined. Also in 1997, ASEAN did everything but intervene when a violent coup stalled Cambodia's entry into the organization. Indonesia's growing instability sparked a debate over the rigid policy of non-interference, starting with East Timor's violent transition to independence. East Timor's pro-independence vote threw the island into chaos in early September, and began a downward spiral of separatist activity that increasingly threatens Indonesia's stability. With East Timor, Asian countries faced a difficult decision: defy their longstanding policy of non-interference, or risk Indonesia's stability -- and their own. A healthy Indonesia is extremely important to the region. The country guards the Straits of Malacca, the region's major shipping route. Indonesia is also ASEAN's largest member. Yet the region failed to respond quickly when the situation in East Timor grew violent. Instead, the first troops to arrive on the island Sept. 20 were almost entirely from Australia, Britain and New Zealand. While Asian countries did eventually send troops, Australia remained the dominant force, with 4,303 out of 5,651 troops on Oct. 18. Asian troops will finally take a more substantial role in January 2000. Kofi Annan announced Nov. 17 that the Philippines and one other country, yet unnamed, will takeover control of the U.N. peacekeeping force. Now, Indonesia is dealing with another threat to its stability: urgent calls for independence from separatists in Aceh, one of many restive provinces inspired by East Timor. Both the Indonesian government and military have said that Aceh would not be allowed to vote on independence. Meanwhile, Aceh has set Dec. 4 as the deadline for the government to agree to a referendum on independence. With compromise unlikely, violence could ensue. All 10 countries of ASEAN, plus Japan, China and South Korea, have agreed that they are committed to protecting Indonesia's sovereignty and stability. This is a significant departure from the past. However, they are not prepared to back Indonesia militarily. The countries do not likely have the necessary force projection to carry out such an operation. Moreover, forming an integrated security alliance would be logistically difficult. Trying to integrate the militaries from more than a dozen different countries would be no easy task. Asia is clearly unready to launch Mahathir's suggested alliance. Nevertheless, it realizes the need for a regional approach to security, as is seen in a plan approved at the recent ASEAN summit to establish a permanent ministerial-level group to deal with rapidly emerging security issues. Asia has crossed the threshold and is moving faster than ever toward acting like a regional bloc. 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