-Caveat Lector- WJPBR Email News List [EMAIL PROTECTED] Peace at any cost is a prelude to war! STRATFOR.COM Global Intelligence Update December 2, 1999 Iranian Investment in Colombia Raises Suspicion Summary Colombian and Iranian officials have signed an unusual agreement: Iranians will invest $3 million in a meat-packing plant in the heart of Colombia's rebel-held jungle. Exactly why Bogota would encourage investment that benefits guerrillas who have fought for more than three decades is unclear. But the implications are extraordinary. Colombia's violent right wing will be angered. The region will risk increased international terrorism and invigorated trade in drugs for arms. The United States will probably sour on the Pastrana government, which may ultimately be weakened. Analysis On Nov. 11, a delegation of Iranian government and business representatives arrived in San Vicente del Caguan, a town deep in the jungles of southern Colombia that is held by the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC). [ http://www.stratfor.com/meaf/countries/colombiairanmap.htm ] The delegation visited to assess a site on which the Iranians will build a meat-packing plant and slaughterhouse that would process beef bound for Iran. The visit was the latest step in a process that began Oct. 21, when Colombian and Iranian officials signed an agreement committing $3 million in Iranian investment. There is, however, one major oddity: Colombia's major cattle production takes place on the other side of the Andes Mountains, more than 300 miles to the northwest. Near San Vicente del Caguan there is little but jungle. There are no major roads and precious little infrastructure. The town is, however, in the heart of drug- producing territory held by the FARC, the country's largest and most successful guerrilla movement after more than three decades of civil war. Sizable implications will grow from this comparatively small investment in a little town. The government of President Andres Pastrana may push his stalled peace process forward by placating leftist guerrillas. But the government is equally likely to spark anger among Colombia's most violent right-wing elements. By opening the door to Iran, the government unwittingly risks increasing the influence of Iranian-backed terrorists in South America. From nearly any angle, this investment will likely damage relations with Washington. With the apparent blessing of top Colombian officials, talks began in the spring, when a delegation of Iranian officials and businessmen visited the town of San Vicente del Caguan, which is in the municipality of Caqueta. On Oct. 21, Iran's ambassador to Colombia, Hossein Sheikh Zeineddin, and the office of San Vicente's mayor signed the deal. Significantly, the government's top peace negotiator with the guerrillas - peace commissioner Victor G. Ricardo - signed the agreement, acting as guarantor. But not everyone in the Pastrana government appears pleased; indeed, the military seems distinctly displeased. On Nov. 27, Colombian Defense Minister Luis Fernando Ramirez accused the Iranians, who resisted an inspection of their baggage, of being military advisors to the FARC, reported Agence France-Presse. Iran has denied that it is using the investment as a cover. In Tehran, Foreign Ministry spokesman Hamid Reza Asefi dismissed the charge as astonishing, according to the BBC's monitoring of Iranian official radio. The Pastrana government's motives are unclear. One possible explanation is that Colombia is in dire need of economic development. In recent testimony to Congress, Undersecretary of State Thomas Pickering described an economy in free fall. In the midst of a recession, its economy has contracted by 5.8 percent in the first quarter of 1999, and its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is forecasted to fall 3 to 4 percent by year's end. Unemployment stands at nearly 20 percent. But the Iranian investment seems like a poor start, improperly located even to lend any immediate help to the country's cattle industry. A more likely explanation is that the government is attempting to kick-start a badly stalled peace process. By steering investment into FARC-held territory, the government may be trying to get the guerrillas re-engaged in negotiations. The FARC has even intimated recently that it may not observe an upcoming Christmas cease-fire. Ricardo's role in securing the Iranian investment suggests that reviving the peace process is the true agenda. Another possibility - however remote - is that Ricardo was acting on his own. The president has remained largely silent on the entire investment deal. Regardless of the government's motives, the deal will undermine the country's right-wing elements and its violent paramilitaries. The right, too, is deeply involved in drug trafficking. And the right's paramilitaries are increasingly believed to be behind most of the country's politically-motivated murders. The right is not likely to take Iranian investment very well in the territory of its sometime business partners and longtime arch-enemies - leftist guerrillas. The government in Bogota can expect a backlash. The government is also cracking open the door to increased influence by both Tehran and the terrorist movements it has supported. South America is an important proxy battlefield for the Middle East's struggles. There appears to be a longstanding relationship between the FARC and the Iranian-backed Hezbollah [ http://www.stratfor.com/SERVICES/GIU/060399.ASP ]. Hezbollah has training camps in southern Brazil. Hezbollah has also been implicated in attacks on the Israeli embassy and a Jewish cultural center in Argentina. In the current deal, any Hezbollah presence could result in an increased flow in arms to the FARC; in turn, the FARC may find a way to use the new Iranian connection to export cocaine. The United States - the chief market for Colombian cocaine - is saturated. Colombia produces 80 percent of the world's cocaine. Demand and prices, however, are rising in other regions of the world, most notably Russia. In exchange, Hezbollah may find a way to ship arms from the other side of the world to Colombia. In a much larger sense, Iran stands to reap considerable benefits: It is now positioned to play an important role in the Western Hemisphere's most important civil war. The Iranian ambassador said his government hopes to aid the peace process because, after all, it does not need the additional beef, reported the Colombian weekly publication Semana on Nov. 10. Iran gains a toehold at the front line of the drug war. San Vicente is in the region where new, U.S.- trained counter-drug battalions will operate. Iran can also increase its influence on both the Colombian and Venezuelan oil industries. The United States is not likely to take any of this in stride. Investment in guerrilla-held territory will strike many in Washington as capitulation to the drug trade. And the mere presence of Iran in the most sensitive place in the Western Hemisphere is likely to force policymakers to re-think ties to Colombia. Pastrana may be using the Iranian deal to pressure Washington into delivering $1.5 billion in aid, only half of what Pastrana wants. Recent developments may quash aid altogether. A little over a year into his administration, the Colombian president has worked to bring peace to a country torn by decades of civil war. Pastrana is already weakened by his concession of land to the FARC. In a sticky position, attempting to satisfy the FARC, the right, everyday Colombians and the United States, Pastrana may see the Iranian investment as a chance to get the peace process back on track. Suffering from increasing criticism and declining popularity, the president is risking a renewed challenge from the right, upsetting the United States and regional turmoil. And those are the rewards only if the gambit succeeds. (c) 1999, Stratfor, Inc. http://www.stratfor.com/ **COPYRIGHT NOTICE** In accordance with Title 17 U. S. C. 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