-Caveat Lector-
Newsmax-December 23, 1999
First Lady for President? Possible, Poll Says
By Stephan Archer
Hillary Clinton is a viable presidential candidate, new poll
results show.
A NewsMax.com/Zogby International poll reveals that if
presidential elections were held today, First Lady Hillary Rodham
Clinton would garner nearly 25 percent of the vote in a
hypothetical three-way race with Republican George W. Bush and
Reform Party convert Pat Buchanan.
Political pundits have said that any candidate who can poll 25
percent of the national vote has reached a serious threshold and
is capable of winning the presidency.
The NewsMax.com/Zogby nationwide survey of 1,005 likely voters
last week found that 24.4 percent of those polled said they would
vote for Hillary Clinton.
Bush failed to gain a majority, taking 47 percent of the vote.
Buchanan came in third, mustering a paltry 6 percent.
Another 22 percent of those polled said they weren’t sure for
whom they would vote.
These poll numbers are certain to be encouraging news to Hillary
Clinton.
Some Hillary watchers believe her true intention all along has
been to run for president, not to be simply a junior senator from
New York.
Dick Morris, one-time Bill Clinton campaign guru, believes
Hillary will decide to opt out of the Senate race from New York
later in 2000 and apply her campaign funds in 2004 to either the
Senate race in Illinois or a presidential run. Federal Election
Commission rules would allow her to do this.
These latest poll results, however, indicate she vould be a
viable candidate even four years sooner, in the 2000 presidential
race, in a three-way race against Bush and Buchanan.
Were Hillary to go that route, she would have to beat out both
Vice President Al Gore and former New Jersey Sen. Bill Bradley
for the Democratic nomination.
There have already been signs of friction between the first lady
and the Tennessean who has twice been her husband's running mate.
Author Barbara Olson, in her new Hillary biography "Hell to
Pay," agrees with Morris that Hillary’s real ambition has been
the presidency.
The first lady’s poll numbers today compare favorably with those
for Ross Perot when he first ran for the presidency in 1992.
Poll numbers show that Hillary has a strong base of support in
the Democratic Party.
The NewsMax.com/Zogby poll queried likely Democratic voters
about Hillary’s chances should she enter the Democratic primaries
today - not four years from now.
In a three-way primary field of Bradley, Hillary and Gore, the
vice president came out on top, with 36 percent, and Bradley
second, with 31 percent.
The first lady received 19 percent - a respectable chunk of the
vote for someone not even considered in the running at this
point.
Her number zooms higher were Gore not in the race for the
nomination.
In a two-way contest today between Bradley and Hillary, Bradley
would take 45 percent of the vote - but she would be nipping at
his heels with 38 percent of the vote, with 17 percent of
Democratic voters still undecided.
The NewsMax.com/Zogby poll indicates Hillary’s prospects for
future elections may improve markedly.
She racks up high support from young voters between ages 18 and
24. Among those voters in a presidential election, Hillary would
outpoll both Bush and Buchanan by a comfortable margin.
Running in Democratic primaries, Hillary could also expect to
win big with young voters. Among those between 18 and 34, she
would beat Gore and Bradley by at least 20 points.
The survey does reveal some cracks.
Jewish voters, a large voting block in New York City and vital
for any Senate run in that state, apparently have grave
reservations about a Hillary presidential candidacy.
In a run for the White House, Bush would outpoll her by two to
one among Jewish voters, with almost 50 percent undecided.
In a Democratic primary race among Gore, Hillary and Bradley,
Hillary would get a mere 7 percent of the Jewish vote. Against
Bradley, Hillary would do some better, but still only 12 percent.
Jewish voters may be responding to concerns that Hillary has not
been a keen supporter of Israel, and did not distance herself
from anti-Israel comments made by Yasser Arafat’s wife during a
recent speech.
Larry Sabato, an election analyst and professor of government
and foreign affairs at the University of Virginia, believes these
poll results suggest the first lady does have a chance to win the
presidency, but she first must prove she can win an election to a
lesser office.
"She needs to win this New York race to be taken seriously,"
Sabato told NewsMax.com. "Just being first lady isn’t enough."
Sabato also said a successful campaign in New York would
separate her from "Clinton fatigue."
Although Hillary Clinton was at first seen as the aggrieved
spouse, Sabato said, things have changed. She is now considered
part of the Clinton administration’s corruption.
A win in New York could change that view, Sabato said.
NEWSMAX.COM/ZOGBY POLL
Question: If the election for U.S. president were held today and
the candidates were George W. Bush, Pat Buchanan and Hillary
Clinton, for whom would you vote?
Bush - 47 percent
Hillary - 24 percent
Buchanan - 6 percent
Not sure - 22 percent.
Question: If the Democratic primary for president were held
today and the candidates were Al Gore, Hillary Clinton or Bill
Bradley, for whom would you vote? (Democratic voters polled)
Gore - 36 percent
Bradley - 31 percent
Hillary - 9 percent
Not sure - 14 percent.
Question: If the Democratic primary for President were held
today and the candidates were Hillary Clinton and Bill Bradley,
for whom would you vote? (Democratic voters polled)
Bradley - 45 percent
Hillary - 38 percent
Not sure - 17 percent.
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